Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09OUAGADOUGOU573
2009-07-17 10:59:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Ouagadougou
Cable title:  

Burkina Faso: 2010 Presidential Elections On the Horizon

Tags:  PGOV KDEM UV 
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VZCZCXRO0052
RR RUEHMA RUEHPA
DE RUEHOU #0573 1981059
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 171059Z JUL 09
FM AMEMBASSY OUAGADOUGOU
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5218
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE
UNCLAS OUAGADOUGOU 000573 

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM UV
SUBJECT: Burkina Faso: 2010 Presidential Elections On the Horizon

UNCLAS OUAGADOUGOU 000573

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM UV
SUBJECT: Burkina Faso: 2010 Presidential Elections On the Horizon


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Although President Compaore has been in power
since 1987, following the 2000 constitutional changes, he is
eligible to run for the Presidency one final time in 2010. Most
observers expect a clear Compaore victory in the first round.
Because the numerous opposition parties do not have access to the
same resources (financial, logistic) as the party in power, the
elections are naturally skewed in favor of the incumbent. In order
to prepare for 2010, the electoral commission of Burkina Faso has
published a tentative election-year calendar, starting with the
revision of the registry in January 2010 and ending with first and
possibly second round voting in November 2010. END SUMMARY.

2. (SBU) President Compaore has been in power in Burkina Faso for
the last twenty two years. In 2005 Compaore was reelected to a
third term in office with 80 percent of the vote. Because of
constitutional changes (Article 37 of the Constitution was amended
in April 2000) this term is in fact considered his "first" under the
new constitution (Note: Each new constitutional change affecting the
Office of the President takes effect at the time of the National
Assembly vote and is not retroactive. End Note.) The Burkinabe
constitution currently allows for two five-year terms of office.
Most political observers believe that Compaore will easily win the
2010 elections. While elections in Burkina Faso have been described
as mostly free and somewhat fair, access by opposition parties to
electoral resources are limited and do not create a level playing
field.

3. (U) In preparation for the 2010 presidential elections, officials
at the National Independent Electoral Commission (CENI),tasked with
planning and running elections and referendums in Burkina Faso, have
set the following tentative election calendar.

- January 1-31, 2010:
Revision of the voter registry (intended to update and correct the
existing registry and draft a final registry that will gain
cross-party consensus.)
- March 1-31, 2010:
Announcement by the Constitutional Court of the presidential
election date.
- September 26 or October 3, 2010:
Publication by the Constitutional Court of candidate list.
- October 17 or 24, 2010 (at midnight):
Official opening of electoral campaigning (first round of the
presidential elections.)
- November 6 or 13, 2010 (at midnight):
End of first round electoral campaigning.
- November 7 or 14, 2010:
Voting begins (from 6:00 AM to 6:30 PM).

3. (U) Electoral rules stipulate that if no single candidate wins
the majority of the votes (51 percent) in the first round, then a
second round will oppose the two candidates receiving the most votes
in the first round. By regulation the second round has to take
place within 15 days of the official announcement, by the
Constitutional Court, of the first round results.

4. (SBU) COMMENT: We expect the number of voters to increase
significantly in the 2010 presidential elections as a result of the
new electoral law that gives Burkinabe citizens residing abroad the
right to vote. In 2005, 57.5 percent of the 3.9 million registered
voters participated in the elections. (Note: The new electoral law,
Article 48 - Item 4 of May 7, 2009, allows for non-resident
Burkinabe nationals participation only in presidential elections and
national referendums, but not in legislative or municipal elections.
End Note.) Compaore will most likely easily win the election in the
first round. The more than 140 opposition parties are not
sufficiently organized, nor are they sufficiently endowed
financially to compete effectively against Compaore. END COMMENT.


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