AMBASSADOR'S REFLECTIONS ON BURKINA FASO'S

C O N F I D E N T I A L OUAGADOUGOU 000145


FROM AMBASSADOR JACKSON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/05/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV UV
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR'S REFLECTIONS ON BURKINA FASO'S
LEADERSHIP

Classified By: Ambassador Jeanine Jackson for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

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Summary
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1. (C) The future of Burkina Faso is firmly in the hands of
two men: President Blaise Compaore and Prime Minister
Tertius Zongo. As I prepare to leave post after three years,
it is my assessment that this leadership team is generally
moving the country in the right direction, but we will need
to push, press, cajole and work with them to continue the
progress. This cable represents my views on Compaore and
Zongo, and offers a few suggestions of how we might best
engage them. End Summary.

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THE PRESIDENT -
The leopard that changed his spots... at least for now.
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2. (C) Now in his 21st year as President, Blaise Compaore is
taking Burkina Faso, a country wracked by extreme poverty, in
the right direction: moving forward on the process of
democratization, working with donors and others to ensure the
nation's economic stability, turning the page on the negative
regional role Burkina played in the past, and seeking better
relations with the United States -- in part to balance
Burkina's long-time partners including Libya, Cuba and
France.


3. (C) Compaore's democratic credentials are mixed. He
overwhelmingly won re-election in November 2005 in voting
that was free but not particularly fair due to the vast
resources of his Congress for Democracy and Progress (CDP)
party and the weaknesses of the excessively numerous
opposition parties. The CDP party won 73 of the 111
legislative seats in the May 2007 elections, and allied
parties a further 25 seats. The country's first municipal
elections were also dominated by the ruling party but on the
positive side, many women were elected. Compaore has
personally and successfully promoted women's issues, HIV/AIDS
programs and actively supported rural development.


4. (C) During my private conversations with him, I have found
him to be extremely serious, genuine, and well-informed. I
am told that his closest advisors love working for him.
While he and they work extremely long hours, travel
frequently and host many visitors, he regularly finds time to
draw them onto the soccer field to relieve stress. He was
originally influenced to improve his image by these same
people and they are the ones who could convince him to leave
office gracefully in 2015 - or to stay on to keep the country
on the right path.

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Succession Remains Uncertain
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5. (C) I think it is almost certain that President Compaore
will stand for reelection in 2010 and win overwhelmingly. No
other person in the country has anything approaching his
resources, popularity, and influence -- and now he also has a
degree of international recognition. Certainly one of the
reasons that he favors closer ties with the United States is
to strengthen his international standing and consequently to
bolster his position domestically. The key election will not
be 2010 but 2015. Compaore, who under the present
constitution will be barred from running again in 2015, will
have to decide whether he can truly see a future for himself
as a private citizen. He can choose to go the way of many
other African leaders by changing the constitution (again) or
by gracefully retiring to become a senior African statesman
and troubleshooter.


6. (C) Many observers believe that Compaore will indeed
modify the constitution in order to run for another term in
2015, following Quadafi's assertion that 'if a president is
right for the country, a constitution should be changed to
keep him in power.' (NOTE: To change the constitution
requires only 15,000 signatures and a two-thirds majority in
the National Assembly. END NOTE) Other factors that may make
it difficult for the President to cede power include
Compaore's alleged human rights abuses in the 1980's and 90's
which could come back to haunt him if he were succeeded by
someone not closely aligned with him and/or his party. In
addition, loyalists, who may have profited from Compaore's
Presidency in terms of favoritism for contracts and high
level positions, are likely to encourage him to run again in

2015.


7. (C) If Compaore does cede power the question arises: who
could take his place? Recent speculation is that his
brother, Francois Compaore, could be the successor. While
Francois is a well-educated economist and adviser to the
President, he is not at all popular across Burkina society
because of his alleged involvement in the killing of a
respected journalist, Norbert Zongo, in 1998. He is also
perceived to be corrupt. So it is unlikely that the
President would endorse his brother and risk losing
popularity. Several years ago it appeared that President
Compaore had begun grooming Gilbert Ouedraogo as a potential
successor. Ouedraogo is the current Transportation Minister,
son of a former President, and head of the opposition party,
the ADF/RDA (Rassemblement Democratique Africain/l"Alliance
pour la Democratie et la Federation). The ADF/RDA is aligned
with the President but is critical of the government on a
number of domestic issues. It is no longer evident that
Ouedraogo remains a favorite potential successor. (COMMENT:
Ouedraogo participated in the International Visitor program
and has a very positive opinion of the U.S. END COMMENT)

8 (C) Any potential for a democratic succession is rendered
more difficult in the context that there are more than 130
political parties. Many of them operate without resources or
platforms. Coalitions are built only to split apart. Most
viable opposition parties are generally aligned with the
President and the CDP. But the ruling CDP has also
experienced significant internal strife and is being held
together by the personality of the President. The President
and Prime Minister have assured me that they are serious
about holding free and fair elections but the weakness of the
parties will make that a real challenge.

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THE PRIME MINISTER - An Example of Leadership
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9. (C) Compaore appointed his former Ambassador to
Washington, Tertius Zongo, as his Prime Minister in June,

2007. This demonstrated his desire to continue to improve
U.S.-Burkina Faso relations and to build on the close and
constructive professional relationship Zongo had with U.S.
Government officials, congresspersons and the U.S. business
community.


10. (C) Prime Minister Zongo should write a book called "The
Leadership Secrets of Tertius Zongo." He was a dynamic
Ambassador to the U.S. but even the most skeptical citizens
and donors are astonished by what he has accomplished in 18
months as Prime Minister. He has a no-nonsense approach and
has focused on fighting corruption at all levels; making
education his highest priority; connecting the government
with the people throughout the country; choosing the right
ministers and teaching them how to improve efficiency by
using American "management by objectives" principles; and
consulting with bilateral and international donors on key
issues. As the prime mover to make Burkina Faso eligible for
a MCC compact, he continues to use the results of the 17 MCC
performance indicators as a guide to prioritize his focus.
Zongo knows just how far he can push the government and
private sector to reduce corruption without ruffling too many
feathers among the most powerful government and business
leaders. A long-time civil servant, Zongo is not a likely
Presidential candidate in 2015.

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Comment
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11. (C) It is not clear to me whether Compaore and Zongo can
pull off the transition to a more stable, long-term
democratic system. I think Zongo clearly wants to, and
Compaore could be convinced to move towards real democracy
and democratic institutions if he believes that he will have
a personal future in such a system and that the country will
not fall into chaos. If we push, press, cajole and work with
them to continue the progress, we may actually succeed in
helping them turn this country into a long-term success
story. It would not be easy, but certainly worth the effort.


JACKSON