Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09OUAGADOUGOU1141
2009-12-08 13:04:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Ouagadougou
Cable title:  

BURKINABE MEDIATION EFFORTS IN GUINEA, COTE D'IVOIRE, AND TOGO

Tags:  PREL PGOV GV UV GO IV 
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VZCZCXRO6700
PP RUEHPA
DE RUEHOU #1141/01 3421304
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 081304Z DEC 09 RETRANSMITTED BY REQUEST
FM AMEMBASSY OUAGADOUGOU
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5917
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE
RUEHRY/AMEMBASSY CONAKRY 0069
RHMFISS/HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 0731
RUEHDS/USMISSION USAU ADDIS ABABA 0007
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 OUAGADOUGOU 001141 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12928: DECL: 11/23/2014
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, GV, UV, GO, IV
SUBJ: BURKINABE MEDIATION EFFORTS IN GUINEA, COTE D'IVOIRE, AND TOGO

OUAGADOUGO 00001141 001.3 OF 002


Classified by Charge d'Affaires Dennis Hankins for reasons 1.4 (b and
d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 OUAGADOUGOU 001141

SIPDIS

E.O. 12928: DECL: 11/23/2014
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, GV, UV, GO, IV
SUBJ: BURKINABE MEDIATION EFFORTS IN GUINEA, COTE D'IVOIRE, AND TOGO

OUAGADOUGO 00001141 001.3 OF 002


Classified by Charge d'Affaires Dennis Hankins for reasons 1.4 (b and
d)

1. (C) Summary: Following the December 3 assassination attempt
against Camara Dadis, the Burkinabe see the situation in Guinea as
extremely tense with both new threats and opportunities. They
caution careful thought before moving to action for fear that some
outcomes could lead to a bloody split within the CNDD and Guinean
military. They recognize that General Sekouba Konate could serve as
a viable basis for a political solution if Dadis is unable to return
and/or resume his functions. The Burkinabe were pleased with the
results of last week's Ouagadougou mediation on Cote d'Ivoire which
they saw as a "forcing action" to put together the mechanical steps
to resolve the vast majority on "Ivoiranite" issues and get a firmer
date for elections. President Compaore soon plans to convene a
mediation session on Togo to address opposition demands for a
constitutional change from a single to a two round presidential
election. End Summary

GUINEA
--------------

2. (C) Charge met the morning of December 8 with MFA point person
for the Guinea negotiations Vicent Zakane to get a readout on
Burkinabe thinking following the December 3 assassination attempt
against Camara Dadis. Charge advised Zakane that AF DAS Fitzgerald
was planning to attend the December 13 meeting in Ouagadougou of the
International Contact Group for Guinea (ICG-G). Zakane noted that
while the meeting was still tentatively scheduled for the 13th, he
would not be surprised if it was postponed because of the uncertainty
following the December 3 attempt. Zakane noted that it remained
unclear what Dadis' prognosis is. While he understands Dadis is out
of mortal danger, the reported bone fragments in his brain leave open
the question of whether Dadis will be able to resume his position at
the head of the regime. He noted that even the Forces Vives are
being relatively moderate and careful in their statements because, as
yet, nobody knows if Dadis will return and what the consequences of
such a return will be.

3. (C) Zakane noted that the changed situation "offers both risks
and opportunities." If D
adis remains out of the country or out of
commission, acting "president" Konate would certainly serve as a
viable basis for a political resolution. Since Konate "has no
political ambition," Zakane believed the Forces Vives might be
willing to accept his leadership of a national unity transition
government -- something they would never accept with Dadis in charge.
Noting reports of particularly savage acts by the various military
actors during the assassination attempt and following manhunt
(raising particularly how would-be assassin "Toumba" Diakite is
reported to have gouged out the eyes of Dadis' mortally wounded
aide),Zakane said the Burkinabe fear was that the CNDD and Guinean
military forces could lose their tenuous unity. Military on military
violence, the risk that Dadis' recently trained and equipped militia
might be unleashed, or the risk of "Toumba" creating his own
sectional rebellion could all lead to a greater level of violence
than Guinea has already known. Referring to President Obama's recent
decision, after extensive thought and consultation, to increase U.S.
forces in Afghanistan, Zakane stressed that now is not the time for
rash measures. He noted, "The international community wants
everything at one time -- peace, justice, and democracy. It may not
be possible to deliver everything simultaneously, so you have to
decide what is most important first."

4. (C) Turning to the state of mediation efforts, Zakane said the
CNDD and Forces Vives positions on the key political points were
"irrevocably opposed." The Forces Vives "immediately want Dadis to
step down, the CNDD to be dissolved, and an injunction against Dadis
running for president." Zakane noted, "we have studied Dadis'
personality closely, and we know we will never sign anything that
says overtly any of those things." Zakane insisted that, "for those
who know how to read between the lines," the first mediation document
presented meets most of the Forces Vives goals -- just not in black
and white. He argued the Compaore's rather methodical approach had
more chance of steering change through internal pressure than the
international community could through external pressure. "ECOWAS
made an ultimatum, and nothing happened. The AU made an ultimatum,
again without result. The ICG imposes sanctions, but it has no
effect on him." Zakane hoped that both the deadlock of the current
opposing negotiating positions as well as a negative report on the
events of September 28 would generate enough internal backlash that
Dadis (assuming he returns) will see that he cannot gain legitimacy.

5. (C) Returning to a familiar theme, Zakane stressed the limited
role and resources Compaore has as mediator. "He is a 'mediator' --
neither an 'arbiter' nor a 'conciliator.' He cannot impose a
solution, neither is it his role to propose a solution -- he can only
facilitate discussions between the two sides in reaching an agreement
of their own making." Zakane noted that Burkina Faso had not been
given the means to go with the duty of mediator adding that all the

OUAGADOUGO 00001141 002.4 OF 002


travel and hotel costs for the various rounds of talks were being
borne by the Burkinabe. He emphasized that, "he doesn't have an army
he can deploy to force a solution," and retorted to the idea of an AU
military initiative saying, "they talk about an African response
force, but when will it happen." As for an ECOWAS-lead effort, he
noted, "we tried that in Liberia and the results were less than
ideal. And if Nigeria doesn't commit troops to such an endeavor, you
can't talk about an ECOWAS force."

Cote d'Ivoire
--------------

6. (C) Zakane told Charge that Burkina Faso was pleased with the
results of the 6th Permanent Consultation Forum on Cote d'Ivoire held
in Ouagadougou December 2 and 3. Zakane noted that the meeting,
"that we have wanted to hold for some time," had been a forcing
action that had led the parties to implement some of the steps needed
to move out of the crisis. Zakane felt the Ivoirians had put in
place an "entirely viable" procedure to meet the central issue of
exclusion of some residents as "non-Ivoirians." Zakane thought the
status of most would be resolved satisfactorily and that the "small
number" of those finally excluded will at least have been subject to
a rational and legal review. The declaration of the meeting had also
forced the Ivorian electoral commission to set an election within the
narrow "late February to early March" timeline. Zakane said
President Compaore had met with the Ivorian participants -- President
Gbagbo, Prime Minister Soro and opposition leaders Outtara and Bedie
-- behind closed doors before getting down to the business of the
meeting. "He reminded them of how long the crisis had run and each
of their responsibilities," but, Zakane noted, it seemed the
Ivoirians had already come ready to settle so the meeting "was much
easier and far quicker" than we expected.

Togo
--------------

7. (C) Zakane told Charge that President Compaore was getting geared
up to re-engage on his third mediation effort -- that in Togo.
Zakane noted that previous Burkinabe efforts had resulted in a period
of relative calm, but that the upcoming 2010 presidential elections
could spark tensions anew. Zakane said Compaore will "very soon"
call for a mediation session in Ouagadougou to discuss the
opposition's demands for a constitutional change allowing for a
two-round presidential election versus the current single round that
offers significant advantage to the incumbent.

8. (U) CONAKRY Minimize considered.

HANKINS