Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09OUAGADOUGOU1052
2009-11-23 16:22:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Ouagadougou
Cable title:  

GUINEA - BURKINABE MEDIATION TO CONTINUE NEGOTIATING PROCESS

Tags:  PREL PGOV GV UV 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO6174
PP RUEHPA
DE RUEHOU #1052/01 3271622
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 231622Z NOV 09
FM AMEMBASSY OUAGADOUGOU
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5820
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE
RUEHRY/AMEMBASSY CONAKRY 0067
RHMFISS/HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 0726
RUEHDS/USMISSION USAU ADDIS ABABA 0005
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 OUAGADOUGOU 001052 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12928: DECL: 11/23/2014
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, GV, UV
SUBJ: GUINEA - Burkinabe Mediation To Continue Negotiating Process

REF: OUAGADOUGOU 1048

Classified by Charge d'Affaires Dennis Hankins for reasons 1.4 (b and
d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 OUAGADOUGOU 001052

SIPDIS

E.O. 12928: DECL: 11/23/2014
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, GV, UV
SUBJ: GUINEA - Burkinabe Mediation To Continue Negotiating Process

REF: OUAGADOUGOU 1048

Classified by Charge d'Affaires Dennis Hankins for reasons 1.4 (b and
d)

1. (C) Summary: President Compaore and his team have convinced the
CNDD and Forces Vives to continue negotiations of a Guinea agreement.
Both sides are expected to formally comment on last week's mediation
"discussion paper" on November 23 with a third round of proximity
talks planned in Ouagadougou not later than November 26. Western
diplomats underscored to inherent failings of the "discussion paper"
which the Burkinabe said would be addressed -- all the while
suggesting that a solution will almost certainly need to include
Dadis in some capacity through the transition. The Burkinabe have
left the door open for some form of observer mission in any future
transition. End Summary

2. (C) Foreign Minister Convokes Western Diplomats: Foreign
Minister Bedouma Alain Yoda convoked Western heads of mission (Dutch
(representing the EU Presidency),French, German, European
Commission, and U.S. Charge) to discuss the status of President
Compaore's mediation efforts on Guinea. As noted REFTEL, Compaore
had come under tremendous press criticism when the Guinean parties
publicized last week's mediation "discussion paper" as a formal
"proposal" that effectively would have legitimated Dadis' short and
long term role as Guinean head of state. Mission sources report a
crisis mode in the Foreign Ministry over the weekend as the Burkinabe
struggled to get things back on track. With an obvious sensitivity
to the criticisms made of his president, the Foreign Minister started
the meeting with a lengthy rehash of the various Contact Group
meetings that had resulted in President Compaore being asked to
assume a mediation role in Guinea. Yoda further stressed that the
President was not acting in isolation, but in strict collaboration
with ECOWAS, the AU and the UN. Yoda said Burkina Faso "wishes to be
transparent with its partners, but also wanted the partners to be
aware of the limitations on the mediation."

3. (C) Guineans Back With The Plan: Foreign Minister Yoda said the
Burkinabe had worked through Saturday to get the two parties to
understand that the document they had alternately "accepted"
; and
"rejected" was not a mediation "proposal" but simply a "discussion
paper" designed to get them to focus on areas of agreement and
disagreement (Comment: The Foreign Ministry shared French and English
versions of the document and its Annex which has been sent to Embassy
Conakry and AF/W. End Comment). Yoda suggested neither side had
carefully studied the paper in its entirety previously -- instead
zeroing in only on the phrases most important to them. The Forces
Vives was cited as particularly difficult, "because it is not a party
-- rather a collection of parties, unions, and civil society -- all
of who have different specific interests." Nonetheless, Yoda said
that by Saturday evening Compaore had been able to get both sides
committed to staying engaged in the mediation process and had
"received a reiteration of their confidence in and support of the
mediator." Both sides are now expected to come back with written
comments on the "discussion paper" by the afternoon of the 23rd. He
said he understood the CNDD would have nine points of disagreement
and the Forces Vives two main objections. The parties will return to
Ouagadougou no later than November 26 for another round of proximity
talks. At this meeting, Compaore will provide a new "discussion
paper" meant to address issues raised by both sides. Yoda said
Compaore's strategy is to continue this series of Draft - Response -
New Draft for as many rounds as needed to get to something that can
work. Yoda saw three main phases: (1) setting conditions of
"serenity" allowing a transition to take place, (2) the transition
itself; and, (3) elections and their aftermath.

4. (C) Diplomats State the Obvious: The Dutch Ambassador backed by
the French Ambassador told Yoda they could clearly understand where
the Forces Vives found the text of the discussion paper unacceptable.
Both setting Dadis up as Head of State during the transition with
both executive and legislative power, and allowing Dadis to present
his candidacy for president with a theoretical absence of only four
months do not set the conditions of confidence needed for free and
fair elections. The French ambassador noted, "Having the person in
charge of maintaining 'serenity" also being a potential candidate,"
seems untenable. The European Commission Representative asked, "Why
do you have to give Dadis 'a flower" by making him Head of State.
Yoda struggled somewhat but emphasized that the terms of the
agreement would certainly change but then went on to talk about
political realities as they saw it. "The President told both sides a
solution will require sharing power during a transition -- the CNDD
will have to yield some control to the Force Vives and the Forces
Vives will have to accept a lingering CNDD power." Yoda went on,
somewhat unconvincingly, to say the mediation had to deal with
forces, not individuals, suggesting that the language in the
"discussion paper" saying "The President shall come from the CNDD,"
did not presuppose that the CNDD would select Dadis. As for the
eligibility of transition figures to run for President, Yoda noted
the basic conundrum that "the same people (CNDD and Force Vives)

OUAGADOUGO 00001052 002 OF 002


needed to give any transition credibility, also have their own
political ambitions."

5. (C) Transition Institutions: Yoda asked the diplomats to
carefully examine the paper that had been put forth to see that it
was, in fact, the Prime Minister (to be proposed by the Force Vives)
as head of the Council of Ministers who would have the power in the
transition with the President "just signing off on decisions of the
Council." The French Ambassador (working it seemed without guidance)
engaged in several detailed questions of (1) why the executive and
legislative authorities were combined? (Answer: Since the mediation
is dealing with an "exceptional circumstance," the traditional
division of institutions would prove divisive and threaten a
successful transition); (2) Why is there a need for a President at
all if the Prime Minister supposedly has the power? (Answer: A "Head
of State" is essential in the African context. With no "leader," the
government has no credibility; and, (3) If Dadis has to be given a
transition role, can it be in a more "advisory" role with no
executive authority? (Answer: Perhaps). Comment: The French
Ambassador's points did make clear a reluctant French willingness to
accept a transition role for Dadis, and perhaps run for president,
all the while trying to ensure he is defanged during that transition.
End Comment.

6. (C) Observer Mission: Charge told Yoda the U.S. shared the
substantive concerns raised by his European colleagues over Dadis as
president during the transition and his ability to present his
candidacy for the presidential elections. Charge asked whether
President Compaore was prepared to support an ECOWAS observer
mission, perhaps along the lines of the 2005 ECOWAS Mission in Togo.
Yoda replied that the CNDD would clearly reject an interpositional
force but that an observer mission might still be possible. He noted
that the discussion paper had called for an Oversight and Evaluation
Committee headed by the mediator that would be "assisted by an
International Observer Group." While that "Group" remains
intentionally undefined, Yoda saw it as leaving the door open for an
ECOWAS observer mission.

7. (U) Conakry Minimize Considered.

HANKINS