GUINEA - A NEGOTIATING DEBACLE IN OUAGADOUGOU

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 OUAGADOUGOU 001048

SIPDIS

E.O. 12928: DECL: 11/18/2014
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, GV, UV
SUBJ: GUINEA - A NEGOTIATING DEBACLE IN OUAGADOUGOU

Classified by Charge d'Affaires Dennis Hankins for reasons 1.4 (b and
d)

1. (C) Summary: The second round on Guinean talks in Ouagadougou
ended as a public relations fiasco for the Burkinabe with the CNDD
claiming victory. The mediation is trying to downplay the
significance of its seven point "non-paper" meant to stimulate debate
but, according to the Burkinabe, inappropriately and inaccurately
publicized by the two parties as a formal mediation proposal. The
Burkinabe recognize that the details of the Head of State and senior
leadership of any transition governments remain key to any solution
with the two sides, for now, still diametrically opposed relative to
the role of Dadis. Lacking leverage to impose a solution, Compaore
can only wait for one or both of the two sides to give him some
leeway to work with -- he may walk away from the process. The
Burkinabe worry that international pressure tends more to harden
Dadis' position than to force him out. End Summary

2. (C) Not Meant As A Mediation Proposal: Charge spoke morning of
November 21 with MFA Cabinet Director Vincent Zakane concerning the
second round of Burkinabe-sponsored talks on Guinea held November 18
- 21 in Ouagadougou. A clearly frustrated Zakane told Charge that
neither the CNDD nor the Forces Vives had stuck to the intent of the
meeting. Zakane explained that in this round, Compaore had only
meant to present a seven-point "non-paper" that highlighted areas on
convergence and disagreement between the position papers he had
previously received from the two sides. Stressing that the paper was
cleared by the UN and AU before being presented, Zakane said the
paper included a section on transition modalities that was meant to
serve as a discussion point - not as a mediation proposal. Zakane
acknowledged that the point followed that reported in the press -- a
Transition Government headed by Dadis as President with the Prime
Minister coming from the Forces Vives and with the condition that the
two leaders would have to resign four months before any elections
should they want to present themselves as a presidential candidate.
Zakane complained that neither side "played the game" of using the
"non-paper" as a basis of discussion where both were to have come
back with what was acceptable and what was unacceptable to them.
Instead, Zakane said the CNDD was the first to break trust by
releasing the paper as "the mediation proposal" that they would
accept. The Forces Vives followed suit condemning the mediation for
a one-sided "proposal" that ignored their fundamental interests.

3. (C) Mutually Exclusive Positions: Zakane stressed that Compaore
is still faced with mutually exclusive positions on the fundamental
issue in the crisis -- the future role of Dadis. "The CNDD refuses
to discuss any option that excludes Dadis and the Force Vives refuse
any option that includes him," said Zakane, who had seen the
"non-paper" as a way to start discussing some concrete modalities
that might generate enough movement to eventually find a solution to
address this most important issue. Since "the mediation has no
mechanism to force Dadis out," Zakane argued they were forced to
consider options that might include him.

4. (C) Next Steps: Zakane told Charge that no third round of talks
is currently planned. In principle, the two sides are supposed to
get back to Compaore with their formal comments on the non-paper but,
Zakane noted, "the CNDD has already accepted it 100% and the Forces
Vives have rejected it out of hand." Their public statements, Zakane
said, "makes the mediator's task much more difficult." The Burkinabe
will continue to engage the two sides to come back with substantive
comments, but Zakane note that, "If they leave things the may they
are, we may have to abandon our efforts and have the international
community again assume its responsibilities." Zakane suggested the
mediation may consider presenting a completely different formula.

5. (C) Is International Pressure Counterproductive? Zakane told
Charge they are finding Dadis' position becoming tougher in response
to international pressure. "The sanctions and, particularly, the
threat of the International Criminal Court make him fearful and more
and more determined to hold onto power as the only way to protect
himself," Zakane opined.

6. (C) Comment: At minimum, the Burkinabe poorly drafted their
"non-paper" in such a way that it could be used by the CNDD as
support for their position. More likely, the paper accurately
reflected the best Compaore thought he could achieve -- even though
that leads to short term and, almost certainly, long term legitimacy
for Dadis. Charge told Zakane that is seems difficult to walk back
the positions stated in the "non-paper" now that it is public but
that, pending official reaction from Washington, what was in the
paper did not seem to offer any real confidence-building measures for
the Forces Vives that could lead to an acceptable resolution of the
Guinean crisis. Our sense is that Zakane and the Burkinabe had
received multiple messages of concern from international partners;
hence, their desire to disassociate themselves from the paper they
presented. Compaore might very well abandon his efforts since he
sees no way of getting Dadis out and is only opening himself up for
criticism by accepting options that keep Dadis in. End Comment

OUAGADOUGO 00001048 002 OF 002



7. (U) Conakry Minimize Considered.

HANKINS