PART III: NORWEGIAN FM STOERE: THE WORLD AT HIS

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SUBJECT: PART III: NORWEGIAN FM STOERE: THE WORLD AT HIS
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Classified By: DCM Kevin M. Johnson for reasons 1.4 (b,d)

1.(C) Summary. Jonas Gahr Stoere has served as Foreign
Minister in the current Stoltenberg cabinet since its
foundation in 2005. Known as an ambitious, skilled
networker, Stoere represents the centrist-right wing of the
Labor Party, and is very popular across Norwegian society.
The 49-year-old largely determines the shape of Norway's
foreign and security policy, towering over a weak MOD and
leading a domestically-focused Prime Minister. He has gained
influence globally beyond Norway's relative importance.
Bolstered by domestic support and some notable international
successes, Stoere believes he is morally superior to and
smarter than most, and feels that he should have the ear of
the Secretary of State. This attitude, along with Stoere's
ceaseless attacks on the use of force, promotion of dialogue
at all costs, disarmament, and independent peace-brokering,
have at times created clashes with U.S. policy. His support
for some Hamas' positions argues for caution in dealing with
him on the Middle East. However, Stoere is an Atlanticist
who places great value on a positive relationship with (and
recognition from)the U.S. End Summary.

Stepping Stones to Power
--------------
2.(SBU) Stoere grew up in an upper-class setting and
reportedly flirted with the center-right Hoyre Party before
choosing to work for the traditionally blue-collar Labor
Party, a popular move in social-democratic Norway. An
internationalist who received his education in Political
Science in Paris and at Harvard Law School, his first major
international position was as the World Health Organization's
Chief of Staff. This position was followed by a year as
Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg's Chief of Staff from 2000 to

2001. Stoere bolstered his credentials with the humanitarian
community by serving as the Norwegian Red Cross' Secretary
General from 2001 to 2005. After a heated run for the post,
he was picked as FM in PM Stoltenberg's second government.

Dialogue at all Costs
--------------
3.(C) Internationally, Stoere has received attention on
several key issues, illustrating his priorities and values.
In 2007, he was the first (ultimately only joined by
Switzerland) Western official to recognize the Hamas-led
coalition government and to provide aid to Hamas-controlled
Ministries, urging other countries to lift sanctions.
Despite the failure of the Unity Government, Stoere remains
convinced of the rightness of his approach and has recently
called for Hamas as well as the Palestinian Authority to be
involved in talks on the future of the Israeli-Palestinian
crisis. Many members of parliament, including the President
of the Storting (Labor) criticized Stoere for acting
unilaterally on Hamas. His willingness to engage Hamas is not
overlooked by the Israelis (with an Israel Embassy official
having prominently displayed photos on his office wall of the
MFA Vice Minister meetings with Hamas as an ironic
statement.) On the other hand, Stoere gets kudos from the
Israeli government for having productive meetings with their
new Ambassador and taking proactive steps to discipline an
MFA official who sent an anti-Semitic email.

4.(SBU) Stoere also vocally promotes continued dialogue with
Russia, in NATO and outside. Proud of Norway's history of
peace and constructive relationship with Russia in the
Barents region, Stoere actively pushes for continued dialogue
with Russia, even doing so shortly after the Georgia war.

Disarmament a Top Priority
--------------
5.(SBU) Reflecting his belief in disarmament, Stoere and
Norway were among the most skeptical NATO allies regarding
missile defense plans. Stoere only moderated his critical
comments after a meeting with Secretary Rice where she
clearly and publicly outlined her views. He did not choose
to meet with General Obering, then commander of the Missile
Defense Agency, during his visit to Oslo in May of 2008.

When it became clear that Norway stood alone in its
willingness to veto the NATO missile defense proposal, Stoere
worked to ensure language that Norway could approve, showing
his understanding of NATO solidarity.

6.(SBU) The Oslo Cluster Munitions treaty, signed in December
2008, was a direct success for FM Stoere. Launching the
initiative in February of 2007, Stoere called for an
international treaty banning cluster munitions. In an
impressive effort, his team succeeded in drafting the treaty
and attracting over 100 signatories, including the majority
of NATO allies. U.S. concerns over interoperability were
dismissed as alarmist and it took high-level USG intervention
to ensure that the treaty did not harm our ability to operate
with NATO allies.


7. (SBU) With the successful conclusion of the cluster
munitions treaty, Stoere's next target is nuclear
disarmament. Norway has long supported the Non-Proliferation
Treaty's disarmament aspects and was instrumental in the 2005
seven-nations' initiative calling for increases in the size
and speed of disarmament activities. Norway hosted a nuclear
disarmament conference in Oslo in February 2008 and is
actively pushing for a renewed commitment to the NPT, test
bans, and further reductions in nuclear weapons, including
eliminating NATO's nuclear weapons.

Afghanistan and NATO
--------------
8.(SBU) Stoere has been a strong advocate of NATO's
engagement in Afghanistan but has been critical of military
aspects, believing civilian aid is the key factor. His
attitude persists despite a dramatic trip to Afghanistan in
January 2008 where he survived a terrorist attack on his
hotel. The Minister's travel plans were announced in
advance, and some claim that this caused the Taliban's timing
of the attack. Despite criticism from the media and some
political rivals, Stoere restated his emphasis on a civilian
presence and helped push the successful candidacy of Kai Eide
to head UN efforts. Stoere has backed up his position by
ensuring that Afghanistan remains the largest recipient of
Norwegian aid, and by continuing to support the Norwegian
military presence in Northern Afghanistan.

Not Known for Negotiating Ability, but Looking for a Role?
-------------- --------------

9. (C) Norway is involved in Sudan, Tibet, Somalia, the
Philippines, Colombia, Sri Lanka negotiations and peace
promotion, but has had no clear successes since the 1996
Guatemala peace accords. Stoere himself has not participated
in any peace negotiations, leaving the work on Sri Lanka to
his Development Minister colleague. While smart and dynamic,
some wonder if his arrogance might not be off-putting in a
negotiation setting. It is worth noting that in a
complicated division of responsibilities with the Development
Minister, Stoere has retained control of development
assistance in the Middle East and Afghanistan, indicating
that he may be looking for a high-profile role in these two
regions to try out his negotiating skills and boost his
image.

10.(SBU) Stoere has clear ambitions for further high-office
in Norway or abroad. He has a secure place on the Labor
Party's nomination list for the September 2009's
Parliamentary Elections and will enter Parliament, running
for office for the first time. This is an opportunity to
prove himself in domestic politics and an apparent move
towards party leadership. Both pundits and the general
public share a mutual belief that the stage is set for Stoere
to become the new Labor party leader when Prime Minister and
longtime friend Jens Stoltenberg steps down. Other
suggestions are a possible career in the international arena,
including Secretary General of NATO or high-level U.N. roles.
In either path, a success in peacemaking would be a great
plus.

Politician Turned Author

--------------

11.(SBU) In the fall of 2008, Foreign Minister Stoere wrote
(directly or indirectly) two books. The first, "To Make a
Difference," consists of a collection of essays reflecting on
issues such as the United States, the Middle East,
international law, Afghanistan, the High North (Arctic),
health policy as well as anecdotes from his meetings with
political leaders
(including Ambassador Whitney and Deputy Secretary of State
Negroponte). The book has become a national bestseller,
thanks in part to the MFA buying a copy of the book for each
employee.


12. (SBU) Writing the book spurred public debate: Stoere was
the first Norwegian Foreign Minister since World War II to
write a book while in office. Stoere writes that Norway
needs to dare to test whether the established tenets of its
foreign policy are still valid, suggesting that Norway needs
to further focus on its own interests. Stoere devotes a
chapter to the transatlantic ties, viewing the relationship
between Norway and the U.S. as a dynamic and prosperous one,
but with a few noticeable bumps in the road in the past years.

13.(SBU) Stoere also commissioned another book entitled,
"Norwegian Interests: Foreign Policy for a Globalized World."
This was a product of a year-long MFA project, defining the
new challenges of the 21st century and reassessing Norway's
national interests. The book concluded by prioritizing
policies of particular interest to Norway as well as
encouraging more debate and dialogue with the world outside.


14. (C) While many within MFA welcome the high profile the FM
brings to the Ministry through his books and presence, others
complain that he fails to listen and feels too superior--a
cardinal sin in Norway. Some felt the title of his book was
too Anglicized and the book itself self-promoting. They
interpreted the book as an appeal to a global audience
presumably in aid of obtaining a position outside Norway.

Comment
--------------

15. (C) Norwegian public opinion lionizes FM Stoere, who is
consistently ranked as the most popular politician in Norway.
He has built a strong domestic support base that could carry
him into the PM's office. He is a very intelligent, confident
and active foreign minister and firmly believes reports about
his growing influence and glowing future. Aside from some
self-examinations after the terrorist attack on his hotel in
Afghanistan, he has expressed no doubts about his policies or
decisions, including his failed gambit to "lead" the West
toward opening to Hamas after the foundation of the National
Unity Government. Even in areas where he has little
experience such as in direct peace negotiations, he clearly
conveys his belief that his superior skills would make him
invaluable.


14. (C) Skeptical about the use of force, and highly valuing
dialogue and disarmament, Stoere's policies often clashed
with those of the Bush Administration, but he worked hard to
ensure close relations with Washington principals. He
clearly appreciates Norway's close historical relationship
with the U.S. and has a clear-headed understanding of
Norway's reliance on the U.S. as its ultimate security
guarantee. He also understands that tackling global problems
closest to his heart (fighting poverty, climate change,
Middle East peace, etc) will require cooperation with the
U.S. He will remain an active and persistent voice for
attention from the U.S. and could be a valuable ally in many
international debates.

WHITNEY
WHITNEY