SENATORS PRESS FOR CLEAR EUROPEAN STANCE AGAINST

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NOUAKCHOTT 000094

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/28/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL MR
SUBJECT: SENATORS PRESS FOR CLEAR EUROPEAN STANCE AGAINST
JUNTA,

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Cornelius C. Walsh for reasons 1.4 (b)
and (d).


1. (C) Summary: In separate discussions with two senators
representing different factions, both underlined concerns
that European ambiguity and concessions to the Junta allow
General Aziz to consolidate power. This is, they intimated,
an economic, human rights and political disaster. Senator
Mohamed Ould Sid Ahmed (Assaba region),a member of the
neutral group of 20 senators Lahrar ("The Free"),stated that
Aziz' continuance in power is unacceptable and international
pressure is needed to prevent him from running in the
projected June elections. He added that a climate of fear
has developed as Aziz reinforces his base. Earlier on the
same day, senator Zeinabou Mint Dedde (Tevragh Zeina) of the
Islamic Tawassoul party and a strong anti-Junta FNDD
supporter echoed his thoughts. She emphasized the importance
of US pressure on the Europeans to adopt a unified policy.
The only reason, she said, that the military is determined to
stay in power is that they receive mixed signals from the
Europeans and some Africans. To her, the February 5 AU
meeting is crucial in establishing a united international
front against the Junta. End Summary.

--------------
Aziz Should Not Run
--------------


2. (C) In a surprising change of position, Mohamed Ould Sid
Ahmed, a leader in the Lahrar grouping, told Poloff on
January 28 that Aziz must be stoped from running for
president. Ould Sid Ahmed explained that originally he and
the other Lahrar senators did not take positions against the
military or in favor of Abdallahi to avoid being pulled
towards extremes that could lead to violence. The Lahrar
group had hoped to influence events from the inside but say
the military has stifled their voices. Now they feel that
"Aziz's permanence in power is unacceptable" though they
remain opposed to Abdallahi's return. Ould Sid Ahmed stated
that if Aziz wants to run for office he should step down now
and do so like any other candidate.

--------------
"This is Aziz's Coup"
--------------


3. (C) While stating that he was speaking for himself and
not on behalf of the group, Ould Sid Ahmed said that he is
convinced that "this is Aziz' coup" and that "the other
military in the High State Council are not in agreement." He
claims that the military have collaborated with Aziz to save
face and avoid schisms within the armed forces that could
lead to a deeper and more violent crisis.

--------------
A Climate of Fear
--------------


4. (C) The senator stated that others are not taking clear
positions against Aziz because they are afraid of what would
happen if the General stays in power. If it became clear that
Aziz had no future, people would take a clear cut position.
Ould Sid Ahmed said Aziz is intimidating people and there is
a generalized climate of fear. The senator told Poloff: "This
is a very dangerous situation and I fear the worst."

--------------
The EU Can Stop Aziz
--------------


5. (C) According to Ould Sid Ahmed, Aziz has decided to stay
in power at all costs but continual presure on him is useful.
He said that the threat of sanctions would bring changes in
attitude in the Army. Nevertheless, he stressed that the
ambivalent position of France is undermining the
effectiveness of international efforts. The Spanish and the
Germans are not helping either. He feels that the military
would listen to a clear, strong, and unified EU position. He
stated that the US position has been useful but ideological

NOUAKCHOTT 00000094 002 OF 003


due to limited US interests in Mauritania. European
interests, on the other hand, are deeper and firmness from
the Europeans will have an effect. He said the Moroccans have
been very damaging as they are speaking on behalf of Aziz.

--------------
We Need Someone to Bring Us Together
--------------


6. (C) When questioned about solutions, the senator does not
see Abdallahi as viable. Nevertheless, he feels Abdallahi
could contribute to re-establishing constitutional order by
curtailing his mandate and facilitating early elections. RFD
president and nominal opposition leader Ahmed Ould Daddah can
help by putting aside his personal vendetta against the
president. Ould Daddah's original support for the coup was
payback for Abdallahi's acceptance of a tarnished mandate
supported as he was by the military and Aziz. Ould Sid Ahmed
also cited rivalries between Ould Daddah and National
Assembly President Messaoud Ould Boulkheir as an obstacle to
a united front. He feels the conversation has to shift from
extreme positions centered on individuals -- Abdallahi vs.
Aziz -- towards a pro-democracy vs. dictatorship debate. The
emergence of a neutral politician who has taken no part in
these rivalries is necessary to push the country forward. The
senator said: "We are too busy trying to eliminate each
other; someone who took no part in this situation could unite
us."

--------------
Aziz Opposes Vall
--------------


7. (C) The senator stated that Aziz' worst nightmare is
Vall's return. Ould Sid Ahmed said that Aziz "would rather
have Abdallahi return to power than see his cousin in the
presidency." He thinks that the reason Vall has not expressed
his views openly is that he's afraid of being thrown in jail.

--------------
The Military will Eliminate Aziz
--------------


8. (C) According to the senator, if the military sees that
Aziz is cornered, they will eliminate him. There could be a
second coup and even an attempt to kill Aziz. As the
situation grows more desperate, Aziz will increase the
military presence around him, thus providing the military
with an opportunity to carry out a counter coup. The senator
hopes the crisis can be resolved with the least possible
violence as a second coup d'etat could have an explosive
effect.

-------------- --
Without International Support, They Will Leave
-------------- --


10. (C) Earlier in the morning, Poloff also met with Tevragh
Zeina senator, FNDD activist, and Tawassoul party member
Zeinabou Mint Dedde, whose opinions about the situation echo
Ould Sid Ahmed's. Mint Dedde pleaded that the US maintain its
strong position and influence its European partners to adopt
a unified front against Aziz. She feels the dictatorship is a
threat to political stability and that the only reason the
military are determined to stay in power is because they have
received mixed signals from the uropeans. For her, the
iinternational community neds to take a strong stance against
the coup durng the February 5 AU session.


11. (C) Comment: Post memory identifies Sid Ahmed as close
to Ghazwani (Junta #2),an "islamist", and not congenial to
American interests. Whether he is stalking for a possible
Ghazwani role in a new structure, worried as the junta moves
against so called islamists, or merely expressing, as others,
growing concern about Aziz, is unclear. End Comment.


12. (C) Comment: The approach of the AU session, the EU
February 20 meeting, and growing conviction that the June 6
Election process may become a reality is focusing minds and

NOUAKCHOTT 00000094 003 OF 003


raising anxieties. On January 25, Senator Sylla (Mbout)
expressed his concern to Charge that Aziz was preparing a
second coup d'etat in parliament. On January 27, Mohamed
Yehdid, President of the L'Alternative political party and a
member of Aziz's tribe, expressed to DCM his reservations
about the new elections. He mentioned that the military would
accept a solution that allows them to save face. End Comment.
WALSH