Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09NOUAKCHOTT708
2009-11-03 11:35:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Nouakchott
Cable title:  

MAURITANIA: AZIZ' 1ST QUARTER REPORT CARD -- A LOW

Tags:  PREL PGOV ECON PHUM MR 
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 NOUAKCHOTT 000708 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/02/2014
TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON PHUM MR
SUBJECT: MAURITANIA: AZIZ' 1ST QUARTER REPORT CARD -- A LOW
B AVERAGE WITH SOME STRONG SUBJECTS

Classified By: Ambassador Mark M. Boulware for reasons 1.4 (B and D)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 NOUAKCHOTT 000708

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/02/2014
TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON PHUM MR
SUBJECT: MAURITANIA: AZIZ' 1ST QUARTER REPORT CARD -- A LOW
B AVERAGE WITH SOME STRONG SUBJECTS

Classified By: Ambassador Mark M. Boulware for reasons 1.4 (B and D)


1. (C) Summary -- Three months into the democratically
elected Aziz government, the new President has begun to
change opinions of some of his critics with very strong
performance in addressing corruption and terrorism and a good
effort in addressing humanitarian/social emergencies.
Foreign policy has been active with good results from a
Mauritanian perspective (albeit with some questionable
initiatives from an American point of view). Bilateral
relations are progressing steadily though with a certain
degree of hesitance drawn from the combative relationship of
the past year. The government has yet to define coherent
economic development and social policies. While there have
been no significant advances in political and press freedoms
nor in human rights, neither has the new government done
anything particularly bad in those areas. Overall
performance is likely to improve as the government works
through its settling-in period. End Summary


2. (C) "The Asterisk Democracy" -- The Mauritanian
Presidential Elections of July 18 ended the political crisis
of the previous year by allowing for a constitutional
transfer of power following the August 6, 2008, coup d'etat.
With his inauguration August 5, President Mohamed Ould Abdel
Aziz brought Mauritania back into the family of democracies;
however, since Aziz had launched the 2008 coup and had
benefited from his control of power through the campaign, the
new democracy was subject to skepticism. While the
international community accepted the election results, actual
performance in governing democratically will determine at
long-term evaluation of the Aziz government. Following is
Post's purely subjective evaluation of the Aziz government
after three months in the key areas of:

Security Affairs B 3.0
Good Governance B 3.3
Political and Press Freedom C- 1.7
Human Rights C 2.3
Economic Management B- 2.7
Foreign Affairs B 3.0

Public Opinion. B 3.0

GPA B- 2.7



3. (C) Security - B :

Positives: Drawing from his extensive experience in charge
of Mauritanian security affairs, President Aziz has not given
up his Security Czar role and is clearly the decision maker.
The Mauritanians have continued to be very effective in
breaking up tentative Al Qaeda plans and detaining AQIM
elements. While AQIM launched an unsuccessful suicide
bombing attack against the French Embassy on August 8, the
Mauritanians effectively thwarted other threats planned for
Aziz' first month in power (which coincided with the month of
Ramadan). The Mauritanians, despite their continued
suspicions of Malian commitment to the counter-terrorism
fight, actively engaged in the Algerian-led efforts to
coordinate anti-AQIM activities between Algeria, Mali, Niger,
and Mauritania. The Mauritanians have actively sought to
expand security cooperation with France. They are also
re-engaging on military cooperation with the U.S. although
with a certain hesitance drawn both from the U.S. suspension
of cooperation following the coup and, probably, because of a
degree of French anti-American influence. Although there
appears no national strategy as yet, the Mauritanians have
also addressed internal extremism with Aziz speaking of the
"embryonic" threat within Mauritanian society and key
ministries starting activities to counter extremism --
especially among Mauritania's youth. The Mauritanians have
gone out of their way to cooperate in the investigation of
the June 23 AQIM killing of a private American in Nouakchott.

Negatives: The clear efforts to ensure security have has
some negative consequences. Nightly roadblocks throughout
the capital have invited petty corruption and have led to
arbitrary harassment on grounds other than security.
Afro-Mauritanians and Black Moor appear more likely to be

NOUAKCHOTT 00000708 002 OF 004


harassed although they do not meet the standard AQIM profile
and women seem to be subject to a conservative Islamic
prejudice if out on their own at night. The emphasis of
security forces on counter-terrorism is said to have left
poorer neighborhoods with less anti-crime presence leading to
increases in criminality according to our local staff. There
is, as yet, no indication of a counter-narcotics strategy.


4. (C) Good Governance - B :

Positives: Aziz' populist election campaign strategy focused
heavily on breaking with the cycle of corruption by political
elites of the past. He has made anti-corruption the central
priority of his first quarter with many early skeptics
increasingly believing he is sincere. When a Global Fund
audit of Mauritania's AIDS program found substantial
misappropriation of funds, Aziz took the extremely unusual
step of arresting the head of the program and several senior
staff even though the head of the program was a close
relative of the Prime Minister and Minister of Health. Aziz
has been cracking down on abuse of official vehicles and he
has also publicly fired two governors for illegal sale of
public land, has fired several heads of public companies for
malfeasance, and has demanded repayment of funds from scores
of government officials. While it was feared Aziz would use
his anti-corruption campaign only to target political
enemies, few see a political bias in most of his actions to
date. The government has published an Anti-Corruption
Strategy that has been very well received by the
international donor community.

Negatives: Governmental effectiveness is seen as poor to
date since the new ministers seem either insufficiently
experienced or insufficiently authorized to advance policy.
President Aziz is reputed to be a micro-manager with all
items of any significance needing his authority. Aziz is
said to stifle open debate in cabinet meetings and does not
accept dissension. While an overview of Council of Ministers
meetings is published, the decision making process in the new
government remains opaque.


5. (C) Political and Press Freedoms - C- :

Positives: Aziz gets credit for what he DIDN'T do. He has
not launched a campaign, as detractors had warned, to shut
down opposition press and parties. While seen with suspicion
by the opposition, he did reach out to a former element of
the FNDD opposition coalition -- the Tawassoul Islamic party
-- which is, in fact, now running a joint Senate campaign
with Aziz' majority UPR party. Aziz did not dissolve the
National Assembly as he could have as a newly elected
president leaving his election rival -- Messaoud Ould
Boulkheir -- in his position as President of the National
Assembly. It is understood the government is poised to
implement the media liberalization law passed prior to the
coup which would open the door for private radio and
television programming.

Negatives: As noted in the recent MCC Scorecard for 2009,
Mauritania has dropped significantly in scores on political
and press freedoms. The scores reflect the situation during
the coup, but Mauritania's international image still suffers.
Aziz did not seriously undertake after his election victory
the ongoing political dialogue with the opposition called for
in the Dakar Accords (although, admittedly, the opposition
also did little to encourage such dialogue). Serious abuses
during the coup including the conviction of an anti-regime
website editor, Hanevy Ould Dehah, were not reversed.
Indeed, a reporter from Hanevy's Taqadoumy website was also
detained and questioned in relation to anti-government
publications.


6. (C) Human Rights - C :

Positives: Aziz has completed the process of Mauritanian
refugee repatriation from Senegal started by President
Abdallahi. With a final repatriation in October, the UNHCR
is now poised to declare the refugee problem in Senegal
closed -- one of the rare occasions when such a declaration
can be made. In addition to completing the repatriation,

NOUAKCHOTT 00000708 003 OF 004


Aziz has reinstated hundreds of Afro-Mauritanian government
workers who were forcibly expelled in the late 80's and
reinstated pension rights for others who have already reached
retirement age. Aziz named Black Moors to the key portfolios
of Justice and Interior -- a symbolic signal of interest in
addressing lingering slavery issues in Mauritania. Likewise,
his appointment of a woman as Foreign Minister set a
precedent for North Africa.

Negatives: An election ploy to resolve the "passif
humanitaire" human rights legacy of the 1989 - 1991 abuses
has been criticized. Illiterate Afro-Mauritanians who had
signed an agreement on the passif humanitaire now claim they
were unaware they had given up rights for future legal
recourse. The government has done little to address the
slavery issue. The visiting UN Special Rapporteur for
slavery found willingness on the part of the government to
discuss the "sequels to slavery" but denial of ongoing
slavery problems.


7. (C) Economic Management - B- :

Positives: The economic challenges would have been difficult
no matter who had won the elections in July. The government
has very little in cash reserves and the value of their
export products (iron ore, oil, and fish) is low. Severe
flooding and power shortages coupled with rising food prices
posed early emergencies for the new government. Aziz named a
strong economic team in Finance and the Central Bank (both of
whom had a good track record in the Abdallahi government)
that was able to re-establish relations with the IMF, World
Bank, and European Commission. The strong government
response to fraud in the national AIDS program engendered
donor confidence in other non-AIDS related assistance
programs. The government was able to announce some new
investments in the mining sector and build some economic
confidence after TOTAL started exploratory drilling for an
on-shore oil concession in the east of the country. The
government responded very well to the immediate life safety
issues posed by heavy August - September floods although
long-term rehabilitation is hampered by chronic lack of
funds. The government scraped together funds to finance
short-term power generation following severe mid-summer power
outages.

Negatives: There has been little to no effort to account for
public spending during the period of the coup -- when
substantial expenditures were used to gin up popular support.
A comprehensive development strategy has yet to be released.
Hard currency remains in extremely short supply allowing
monopoly benefits to the handful of importers who can find
hard currency for imports. The cost of living is increasing
as a result. A parallel hard currency market has started to
develop although the spread remains less than 25%.


8. (C) Foreign Affairs - B :

Positives: The newly elected government was quick to open a
new chapter in bilateral relations with the U.S. following
the year-long adversarial posturing following the coup. From
the President on down, the government indicates a strong
desire to re-engage. Aziz has moved faster to bolster ties
with France and Spain -- both of whom provided diplomatic
cover during the coup. The naming of a female as Foreign
Minister played well with the West allowing her to gain
special attention at UNGA. When asked, President Aziz
indicated willingness to work with the U.S. in addressing the
crisis in Guinea (noting his displeasure that Dadis keeps
referring to him as his role model). The government has been
able to move forward with Japan and Turkey in establishing
new embassies in Mauritania -- Brazil is expected to follow
suit soon.

Negatives: Aziz has indicated no willingness to "unfreeze"
relations with Israel although neither does he plan to fully
cut ties. Mauritania remains more closely aligned with
hard-line Muslims in Syria, Iran and Libya although it is, as
yet, unclear whether Aziz will allow Iran to establish an
embassy in Nouakchott. Aziz has met with Venezuelan
President Chavez and attended Chavez' Latin America - Africa

NOUAKCHOTT 00000708 004 OF 004


Summit.


9. (C) Public Opinion - B :

Positives: Aziz's credible efforts to address corruption
have paid off with the impoverished majority of Mauritanians
reversing an immediate post-election let down that all his
campaign promises did not immediately materialize. Political
pundits suggest his anti-corruption campaign is challenging
elite interests and may lead to his downfall (for some
opposition pundits, this is clearly wishful thinking).

Negatives: As with most Mauritanian governments, the Aziz
government is poor in public communications. Dire economic
straits continue to pose the risk of public unrest. Aziz
will always have "coup leader" in his resume -- leaving the
door open for some other disgruntled security force leader to
make his own play.


10. (C) Comment: We rely heavily on our local staff and key
contacts in evaluating the Aziz government recognizing that
most of these individuals were staunchly against Aziz during
the coup. There is obviously a tendency to discount anything
Aziz does as being more "show than substance;" however, some
of our previously strongly anti-coup contacts are grudgingly
accepting that Aziz is doing some things (security and
anti-corruption) quite well and hasn't done anything
particularly bad in other areas. The new government is
markedly less energetic in its first three months than the
first Abdallahi government was following the 2007 elections
-- this may be in the interest of being methodical in putting
together a strategy but strongly suggests that Aziz had
little broad policy strategy in place once he finally gained
legitimate power. The strategy will come over time as will
closer collaboration with the U.S. as the government gets
over its initial wariness. End Comment.
BOULWARE