SENATE ELECTIONS: MAJORITY AND OPPOSITION COMPETE

UNCLAS NOUAKCHOTT 000664

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM MR
SUBJECT: SENATE ELECTIONS: MAJORITY AND OPPOSITION COMPETE
FOR FIFTEEN SEATS

REF: NOUAKCHOTT 659


1. (SBU) Summary: One third of the senate -- fifteen seats
-- is up for election on November 8 before the opening of the
next ordinary parliamentary session in mid-November. These
elections will be the first for the majority party Union Pour
la Republique (UPR),which hopes to assert its control over
most of the electoral districts at stake. In an unexpected
alliance, UPR is presenting a joint list with Islamist party
and former Front National pour la Defense de la Democratie
(FNDD) member Tawassoul. The opposition's FNDD and
Rassemblement des Forces Democratiques (RFD),which have
decided to participate despite their unwillingness to
recognize the new government, will field separate lists.
Stakes are not high given the senate's limited role in
parliament but these elections are an opportunity for the
opposition to carve itself a place in the new political
environment. Their outcome will throw further light into the
new power alliances following Aziz's July 18 win. End
summary.


2. (SBU) Elections to renew one third of the senate are
scheduled for November 8. Fifteen seats are up for election
in eleven electoral districts, namely Hodh Al Charghi, Hodh
Al Gharbi, Assaba, Gorgol, Trarza, Dakhlet Nouadhibou,
Tagant, Guidimakha, Tiris Zemmour, Inchiri, and Nouakchott.
Senate elections are via indirect suffrage with candidates
lobbying for the votes of members of the Municipal Councils
in their district. Mauritanian citizens do not cast votes
for senators directly.


3. (SBU) These elections are the first for majority party
UPR, formed in May on the eve of the canceled June 6
election. UPR is submitting a joint list with former FNDD
member Tawassoul, whose candidates head the lists in
Nouakchott, Boutilimit and Ouad Naga. Comment: This
unexpected alliance has elicited strong reaction from the
opposition as many in the majority, including Aziz, cited
President Abdallahi's inclusion of the Islamists in the
political process as a justification for the coup d'etat.
End comment. UPR hopes to control a majority of the seats as
many of the municipal advisors left their former parties to
join UPR. The UPR/Tawassoul alliance confirms Tawassoul's
new orientation closer to the presidential majority.


4. (SBU) The opposition -- FNDD and RFD -- is participating
despite its rejection of the July 18 election results. The
FNDD, an umbrella organization of parties opposed to the coup
that includes main opposition parties UFP (Mohamed Ould
Maouloud) and APP (Messaoud Ould Boulkheir),has decided to
present a common list. Despite initial rumors pointing to a
joint FNDD and RFD list, both will field separate lists but
have decided to support each other where one has a majority
of municipal advisors (reftel).


5. (SBU) Comment: The stakes are not high given the
senate's limited role in parliament. Nevertheless, these
elections are an opportunity for both the opposition and the
majority. After the July 18 debacle, the opposition has now
a chance to carve a place for itself in the new political
order. For Daddah's RFD, it is an opportunity to confirm its
place as the main opposition party in parliament. The future
fate of the FNDD, which is still around despite the end of
the constitutional crisis and the expectation that it would
wither away, will likely be decided by its performance in
this election. For UPR, the election is an opportunity to
consolidate itself as a single majority party. The results
of the election are likely to shed some light on tribal and
regional politics following Aziz's win.

BOULWARE