OPPOSITION LEADERS ON THE FUTURE OF THE FNDD

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NOUAKCHOTT 000506

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/03/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM MR
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION LEADERS ON THE FUTURE OF THE FNDD

REF: NOUAKCHOTT 504

Classified By: Ambassador Mark Boulware for reasons 1.4 (c) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: The Front National pour la Defense de la
Democratie (FNDD) is still active despite its electoral
defeat and the defection of founding party Tawassoul.
Leaders Mohamed Ould Maouloud and Abdel Koudouss Abeidna
believe the FNDD has a future as an umbrella organization for
opposition parties that reject the election results and the
new regime. Moving forward, the FNDD is requesting the
government investigate electoral fraud and open up political
dialogue to guarantee Mauritania's democratic future.
President-elect Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz's government will be
marked by authoritarism and a combat between democratic
forces and populism, Maouloud claims. According to Abeidna,
the FNDD will become a magnet for all those disappointed with
Aziz. He is convinced that Aziz needs to change to stay in
power but believes he is fundamentally incapable of change.
Abeidna insists the possibility Aziz will be deposed by a
coup d'etat is real. The FNDD's strategy of requesting a
fraud investigation seems unrealistic and its leaders appear
to be avoiding the real question of the benefits of
participation versus boycott. End summary.

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MAOULOUD: WE WERE HAD
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2. (C) On July 29, PolOff met with Union of the Forces of
Progress (UFP) President and FNDD leader Maouloud to discuss
the election results and future strategy. A despondent
Maouloud greeted PolOff with a sad smile and a bitter "We
were had!" He stated Aziz's first round victory had been a
surprise to everybody. He blamed the election's outcome on
the Dakar Accord, which he claims the pro-coup camp violated
from the very beginning while the international community
turned a blind eye to Aziz's manipulations. After going
through the usual laundry list of grievances (ie. vote buying
operations, electoral list irregularities, fake identity
cards, etc.),Maouloud stated the next step for the FNDD is
to request the government and the international community
establish a commission to investigate electoral fraud. The
FNDD will ask for a review of the electoral list and for the
opening of ballots in order to recount votes in contested
regions. Note: On July 28, the FNDD and RFD published a
joint communique calling for the creation of an electoral
investigation commission. The statement highlighted the
resignation of National Independent Electoral Commission
(CENI) President Sid'Ahmed Ould Deye following the CENI's
statements validating the results. Ould Deye said there was
a doubt in his mind about the transparency of the election
and, as a result, he could not in good conscience continue
heading CENI. PolOff met with Ould Deye on July 30 and he
explained the systematic nature of Aziz's victory in every
Moughata had triggered doubts. "Out of 40 polling stations
we counted on June 18, he won in each and every one of them
with the same margins. The results kept arriving the next
day, and they were identical in every polling station despite
historical trends and tribal allegiances," stated Ould Deye
who said he plans to go back to retirement and will not
participate in the opposition. End comment.


3. (C) Maouloud said the opposition cannot accept the
results as Aziz's fraudulent victory threatens Mauritania's
democratic future, bringing the country back to a Taya-like
situation in which a dictator will ensure his permanence in
power through rigged elections. When asked whether he
believed Aziz would dissolve parliament, Maouloud stated he
could work with the current parliament and seek to control it
or he could dissolve it to destroy the opposition and get rid
of National Assembly President Messaoud Ould Boulkheir.


4. (C) For Maouloud, Aziz's government will be a populist
one and his presidency will be marked by a battle between the
forces of populism and democracy. "There is no difference
between Aziz and Chavez," he emphasized. Maouloud thinks
Aziz could become more radical and try to pit the populace
against the elite.


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5. (C) Maouloud said the FNDD will continue contesting the
election results. "We will not use the same strategy we used
before Dakar," he stated, saying they had lost faith in the
international community as it had decided to legalize the
coup d'etat. The International Contact Group (ICG) imposed
very short deadlines, and supported unilateral actions as
well as a badly planned election, he said. "We have no faith
whatsoever in the Nouakchott-based ICG," stressed Maouloud.
"The international community betrayed us. We lost everything
-- our legitimacy, money and energy -- so in the end Aziz
could consolidate his coup. The political crisis continues
because Aziz was badly elected." Maouloud believes the only
way for Aziz to achieve legitimacy is to address fraud
accusations and work with the government to guarantee
Mauritania's truly democratic future. Comment: PolOff met
with Mauritanian anthropologist and tribal expert professor
Yahya Ould Baraa on August 4. Baraa stated that despite the
appearance of calm in Mauritanian society and acceptance of
Aziz's victory, the political class and the tribes are in a
state of disarray and there is widespread discontent with the
election results. Baraa also believes another coup is
possible (septel). End comment.

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ABEIDNA: TIME IS OUR ALLY
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6. (C) On August 2, PolOff met an equally embittered FNDD
rotating President Abdel Koudouss Abeidna. Abeidna said the
FNDD will meet on August 6 to discuss future strategy. When
asked about the FNDD's future, Abeidna stated that the
organization will transform itself from an anti-coup to an
anti-fraud movement. He does not think the defection of
founding leaders like Jemil Mansour will have a negative
impact on the organization. On the contrary, said Abeidna,
"now the Front will become a magnet for all of Aziz's
enemies." Abeidna is convinced that disappointed Aziz
supporters will come swell the ranks of the FNDD as soon as
they realize Aziz cannot please everybody by giving them what
they consider their right due. Abeidna doubts RFD's Ahmed
Ould Daddah will join the government and sees him as a
reliable opposition partner. He is also counting on Ely
Mohamed Vall's support. Note: Vall stated in a press
conference on July 31 that Aziz's election was a coup d'etat
through the ballot boxes and that the crisis continued. End
note.


7. (C) When asked about the opposition's future in
parliament and whether Daddah and Boulkheir's boycott of
electoral results would precipitate a dissolution, Abeidna
responded that a dissolution would be a good thing. He
believes the opposition would win parliamentarian seats if
elections are called. PolOff pointed out the contradiction
in his position in light of the election results but he
dismissed it by stating: "This time the international
community will not have us. You already dragged us once into
a trap, we won't let you do it again. If the necessary
conditions for parliamentary elections are not present, the
opposition will boycott." If Aziz does not work with the
opposition, he has no chances of surviving, stated Abeidna,
while underlining that Aziz can only dissolve parliament
twice.


8. (C) "We will be waiting for him around the corner,"
threatened Abeidna. In order to stay in power, he has to
change but he is incapable of changing. There will be
demonstrations and they will be repressed, stressed Abeidna.
The Europeans have to choose between working with Aziz or
with the Mauritanian people. Abeidna is convinced Aziz could
be deposed through a coup d'etat as he has no legitimacy.

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COMMENT
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9. (C) Maouloud and Abeidna are in denial. The FNDD's
request to open an investigation seems unrealistic. Even if
Aziz decides to indulge, it is unlikely any significant fraud
will be exposed. Aziz's camp has already expressed its
strong rejection of this proposal (reftel). Also, despite

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the Swedish EU presidency's call for an investigation, it is
unlikely the international community will continue investing
time and resources in electoral fraud investigations in
Mauritania. Many feel it is time to move on. The FNDD is
faced with a tough choice: continue with a radical position
of rejection or participating. For the moment, the FNDD does
not seem open to giving Aziz the benefit of the doubt despite
his August 3 calls on the opposition to join "the movement of
change to work towards Mauritania's development and
transformation into a place where each individual finds its
rightful place in a transparent and fair manner."
Confrontation seems to be the only way of ensuring the FNDD's
political survival. The question now is how realistic and
sustainable this logic can be in the long-term. End comment.

BOULWARE