MAURITANIAN ELECTION CHRONICLES FOR JULY 8 --

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NOUAKCHOTT 000443

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/08/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM MR
SUBJECT: MAURITANIAN ELECTION CHRONICLES FOR JULY 8 --
ATTACKS AND COUNTER-ATTACKS


1. (U) The OIF will send observers: The Organisation
internationale de la francophonie (OIF) confirmed on July 8
it will send an observer mission headed by former President
of Burundi Pierre Buyoya.


2. (U) Aziz comes forward as the real author of the 2005
coup: During a political rally in Atar, Mohamed Ould Abdel
Aziz declared "he is the real artisan of the 2005 coup
d'etat." According to Aziz, Vall was "sound asleep when the
coup happened."


3. (U) Zeidane endorses Daddah: Former Prime Minister
Zeine Ould Zeidane came out of his usual silence to announce
his support of RFD's Ahmed Ould Daddah. In 2007, Zeidane was
the third runner up to the presidency with 15 percent of the
vote. In that election's second tour, Zeidane gave his
support to Sidi Ould Cheikh Abdallahi, precipitating Daddah's
defeat. Zeidane is a political figure closely tied to former
dictator Ould Taya. Rumor has it that Ould Taya's Smasside
tribe, formerly an enemy of Daddah, is backing the RFD in
this election.


4. (U) Aziz is richer than General Powell: Presidential
candidate Messaoud Ould Boulkheir highlighted in a rally in
Selibaby that American General Colin Powell retired modestly
after serving for decades in important positions whereas
General Aziz has "castles and an immense fortune." Messaoud
stated this fortune certainly did not come from his modest
Mauritanian officer salary.


5. (U) Aziz TV: According to press reports, private TV
channel DAVA belongs to Aziz. The channel broadcasts 24-hour
music and Aziz's electoral campaign activities. Rumor has it
that the equipment was provided by Qadhafi and that the
studios are located at state-television TV Mauritania.
Mauritanians are puzzled at the emergence of this new channel
as the law calling for the liberalization of television in
Mauritania has not been passed. The High Authority of the
Press and the Audiovision (HAPA) stated it never authorized
this new channel.


6. (U) Aziz states the HCE still exists: During an
appearance in TVM, a stressed out Aziz stated: "the High
State Council is still around. No, it's not dissolved. And
the government, the Prime Minister, were appointed by me.
It's the same government of the period following August 6.
That is the government that directs the 18-day government.
And the international community, which did not recognize me,
came to implore me to accept an arrangement. I did not have
any money. But now I do. I have money."


7. (U) Mansour calls for an anti-Israel charter: Jemil
Ould Mansour, presidential candidate for the moderate
Islamist party TAWASSOUL, called presidential candidates to
sign a charter against re-establishing relations with Israel.


8. (C) Comment -- Aziz' Outbursts: During the July 8
meeting of the ICG, the European Commission noted with
concern General Aziz' Atar speech (para. 3) that implicitly
threatens another coup if he does not get elected. Aziz'
televised comments (para. 5 and 6) portray even further
evidence of a tough guy approach to the elections. In
discussions with local staff, Mauritanian's note Aziz is
using "fear" as a strategy -- signaling to his opponents and
to the vested political class that he will come after them as
part of his "campaign against corruption" if they do not fall
in line. Discussion of possible future coups threaten the
political class that he will not give up without a fight no
matter what the voters might say. It is extremely difficult
to divide fact from rumor in the highly charged political
atmosphere of the campaign; however, some observers say Aziz
is "losing it." He is said to be blowing up at his staff as
he begins to question whether he can win the elections
despite his ten months of preparation. The international
community witnessed this trait in his yelling match with
President Wade at the close of Wade's mediation trip to
Nouakchott. Every campaign speech is a new litany of threats
against his opponents. Serious debate revolves around Aziz'
probable reaction if he does not win. Most assume he would

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try to take power back by force but many question whether he
would gain support for a third coup. His own tribe can side
with his cousin Col. Vall who emerged from the 2005-2007
political transition with general praise from the
international community (despite his rather voracious
corruption). The strongly anti-coup Taqadoumy website claims
that Aziz had tried to order the arrest of Ould Boulkheir's
and Ould Daddah's campaign managers only to be counter-manded
by General Ghazwany. We do not know if this report is true
-- but cite as an indicator that the military and security
forces may not follow Aziz again.


9. (C) Comment Continued -- Crystal Ball: A focus group of
local staff had mixed views of how the election would advance
though almost all saw Aziz moving forward to the second
round. Our senior Public Affairs LES (who the rest of the
group said was "spot on" in his predictions during the 2007
election tends to discount the importance of both Col. Vall
and Ahmed Ould Daddah -- saying Vall has more respect abroad
than in Mauritania and that Ould Daddah will be hard pressed
to improve on his intelligensia and home province-based
results of 2007 (when he polled 21% in the first round).
This LES (with most of the others agreeing) expects an Aziz -
Ould Boulkheir runoff. It is expected that Ould Boulkheir
(or Ould Daddah if he should get into the runoff instead)
will receive the support of his anti-coup partners.
Interestingly, LES staff suggest that Afro-Mauritanian
candidate Ibrahima Moctar Sarr (who polled 8% in 2007) will
likely not support Ould Boulkheir who, while black, is an
Arab black, not African. Vall's support is then seen as key
with the key question being whether tribal interests will
lead him to support his cousin Aziz or whether the blood is
so bad between the two that he will support an opposition
candidate. LES believe he will follw what is being called
the TSA movement (Tous Sauf Aziz) and support anyone who is
not Aziz.
BOULWARE