SENEGALESE OPEN THE DOOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NOUAKCHOTT 000346

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/21/2014
TAGS: KDEM MR PGOV
SUBJECT: SENEGALESE OPEN THE DOOR

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Classified By: Ambassador Mark M. Boulware for reasons 1.5 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary. Senegalese Foreign Minister Gadio and
fellow mediators convoked on May 21 representatives of
members of the International Contact Group on Mauritania to
announce agreement in principle between major protagonists to
end Mauritania,s political crisis. The deal, to be
announced as early as May 25, calls for a unity government to
be created by President Abdallahi who would then resign
opening the way for elections to take place July 11, after
revision of electoral lists. Details, including the
composition of the unity government remain to be worked out.
Gadio calls for international support in moving toward final
agreement and in organizing and conducting elections. End
summary.

2. (C) The mediation team lead by Senegalese Foreign
Minister Gadio and including UN Special Representative
Djinnit, AU Peace and Security Commissioner Lamamra and Ravaa
El Madani, Special Envoy to AU President Ghadafi convoked on
May 21 representatives of members of the International
Contact Group on Mauritania for an update on its efforts.
Gadio noted that the mediators had achieved agreement in
principle from the three main protagonists, General Aziz, RFD
President Ould Daddah and FNDD President Ould Maouloud, on a
framework that would provide a way out of Mauritania,s
current political crisis. Gadio emphasized that this was not
a final agreement and that the three parties would meet with
mediators later in the evening to work out the terms of the
written proposal.

3. (C) The agreement, in its current form, calls for the
establishment of a government of national unity by decree
signed by President Abdallahi, the President,s resignation
and the constitutional transfer of power to Senate President
Ba Mbare, already nominally acting in that capacity since
General Aziz, resignation from the High Council of State.
The unity government would establish a new National Electoral
Commission that would proceed immediately to an exceptional
revision of electoral lists over the period of one month.
New candidates, including President Abdallahi if he wishes,
would be accepted, the participation of opposition candidates
being a key element of the deal. The first round of
elections would be held on July 11 with a second round July
15, if necessary. International observers would be welcome
and encouraged.

4. (C) Gadio noted that mediators had directly engaged the
Ministry of Justice on the issue of FNDD prisoners and,
having obtained Aziz, assurance that he would not oppose
their release, are relatively confident that the issue will
be resolved. Mediators understood of Aziz, reluctance to
completely suspend his own campaign without a commitment by
opposition candidates and agreement on participation and
suspension is a part of the proposal. Aziz, asked mediators
to obtain agreement on suspension of campaigning directly
from the three other declared candidates (all of whom arrived
to meet the mediating team as contact group members were
departing).

5. (C) While observing that the agreement in principle on
the main points was a major achievement, Gadio cautioned that
work remained to be done. He noted that there was minimal
trust between the protagonists and called for the
international community to lend support and encouragement to
keep the process on track. He hoped that the unity
government could be created as early as Monday May 24 but
said that the deal still had to be sold to rank and file and
the allocation of government posts would be challenging. He
recalled that the timeframe for organizing new elections was
short, much shorter in fact than one of the parties thought
reasonable. Compromise on dates could only be reached, he
said, by promising to call on the international community to
provide urgent and robust support to agreed upon elections.
Gadio also called up on the members of the international
community to sign as witnesses to the final agreement to
bolster the confidence by all parties that the terms will be
observed. He opined that, in spite of mutual mistrust, all
the parties were aware of the deteriorating situation in the

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country and the growing dangers inherent in that.

6. (C) AU PSC Commissioner Lamamra likewise appealed for
continuing engagement by the international community to see
this agreement through. He noted that although not perfect,
the agreement amounted to a rejection of the coup of August
6, 2008 since the national unity government will be created
by the legitimate, elected president and power will pass to
his constitutional successor with new elections that also
conform to the constitution. He said that the agreement will
strengthen the hand of the AU in dealing with
unconstitutional changes in government elsewhere on the
continent.

7. (C) Comment: This is an imperfect agreement but almost
certainly the very best achievable solution to a problem that
increasingly threatened to spin out of control in spite of
the considerable diplomatic time and energy expended by the
international community. Moreover, it does mean a reversal
of the coup, if only morally and legally, and a return to
constitutional order. Obviously, an Aziz victory cannot be
excluded and is, in fact, the most likely result of new
elections. Even in victory, however, Aziz is likely to be
somewhat chastened by his experience and will find himself
very much in need of both internal allies and the
international community to govern with any success. Making
this arrangement work will require continued engagement by
Mauritania,s partners, including the US, in particular
urgent and significant assistance with the elections process.






BOULWARE