MAURITANIA: POLITICAL ROUNDUP FOR THE WEEK MARCH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NOUAKCHOTT 000238

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/02/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL ASEC KPAO KDEM MR
SUBJECT: MAURITANIA: POLITICAL ROUNDUP FOR THE WEEK MARCH
29-APRIL 2

REF: A. NOUAKCHOTT 229

B. NOUAKCHOTT 235

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Dennis Hankins for reasons 1.4 (b) and
(d).


1. (C) Summary: For the week of March 29-April 2, General
Aziz went to Doha to attend the Arab League Summit, while
other members of the ruling High State Council traveled
around the country to "educate" the population about the
"rectification movement" (coup d'etat). The election
calendar was set, and fallout continued from President
Sarkozy's comments regarding the lack of political opposition
to the coup. More secret recordings of President Abdallahi
made while he was under detention surfaced, while Ahmed Ould
Daddah finally came out and made strong public comments
against the coup. The FNDD has pledged to continue with a
march planned for April 2, despite the authorities' refusal
to grant a permit. End summary.


2. (C) "Passive humanitaire" follow-up: In a follow-up to
last week's roundup, PolOff visited Afro-Mauritanian and
human rights groups over the past week to determine
Mauritanian public response to Aziz's effort to "resolve"
this sensitive issue (Septel). Additionally, during Aziz's
visit to the South to resolve the "passif humanitaire,"
several mayors refused to welcome him. The mayors of Boghe,
Aleg, Koudel, and Tokomadji refused to receive "a dismissed
general who maintains power by force through the Presidential
Security Battalion."


3. (SBU) Aziz goes to Doha: General Aziz attended the March
30 Arab League Summit in Doha, Qatar. In his speech before
the assembly, Aziz highlighted the importance of Arab
cooperation, particularly in the economic sphere, and called
on Arab countries to come and invest in Mauritania.
Afterwards, Aziz met with the Emir of Qatar, Iraqi PM Nouri
Al-Maliki, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, and Sudanese
President Omar El-Bashir. State-run media did not elaborate
on the substance of the meetings. On his return to
Mauritania, Aziz made a brief stop in Algeria (a country that
has opposed the coup up to now) but it is unknown for now who
he met with.


4. (SBU) HSC members travel: Several members of the High
State Council traveled around the country to speak to towns
and villages about the "rectification movement" and exhort
the populations to vote in the upcoming elections (in an
attempt to give the elections some legitimacy). Comment:
Sending members of the HSC to the interior of the country is
a frequent tactic used by Aziz when he is traveling abroad.
It keeps the Colonels busy, and more importantly, serves to
disrupt any possible counter-coup planning that may be in the
works. End comment.


5. (SBU) Election calendar set: The High State Council
issued a decree March 29 specifying important dates for the
upcoming elections. The final list of candidates will be
determined April 30. The campaign will start May 21 and end
June 4, while the first round of the election will be June 6.
A second round, if necessary, will be held June 20.


6. (SBU) Disagreements over CENI membership: The junta is
holding consultations to designate a President for the
Independent National Electoral Commission (CENI). Former
Minister of the Interior Mohamed Ahmed Ould Mohamed Lemine,
brother of current Minister of Defense Mohamed Mahmoud Ould
Mehamed Lemine, is a likely candidate. Sociologue Cheikh
Saad Bouh Camara, an Afro-Mauritanian who participated in the
2005-2007 CENI, could also be nominated (although Camara is
reportedly upset over the release of a taped conversation
between him and President Abdallahi while the President was
being held under house arrest). The FNDD and Ould Daddah's
RFD party refused to take part in these consultations as they
do not recognize the June 6 election.


7. (SBU) RFD defections: On March 29 over 500 RFD members

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announced their resignation from Ould Daddah's party in favor
of Aziz's candidacy. They said they were impressed with the
General's achievements in his short time in the Presidency.
Aziz was welcomed by high-level RFD party members during his
visit to the Brakna and the Gorgol regions, further
highlighting schisms within the party.


8. (SBU) Sarkozy fallout: Fallout continued from French
President Sarkozy's comments stating there were "no
demonstrations" against the coup in Mauritania (Ref A). The
FNDD and National Assembly President Messaoud Ould Boulkheir
strongly condemned his statements, while state-run media
wasted no time in highlighting his remarks and using them to
their own advantage.


9. (C) Singing the praises of Taya: On March 31, TV
Mauritanie broadcast 15 minutes of chants (in Pulaar)
praising former President Maaouiya Ould Taya. An
investigation into the incident has been opened. Comment: A
PAO LES with sources at TV Mauritanie said this was a
mistake, not a sign of Taya support within state-run media.
PAO LES reports that technicians frequently reuse tapes, and
neglected to erase the tape completely before reusing it.
End comment.


10. (C) Haidallah wants stability: PolAsst met March 30
with former President Haidallah, who emphasized the
importance of stability, provided tacit support to Aziz, and
clear support for June 6 elections (Ref B).


11. (C) Leaked recordings continue: The popular news site
"Taqadoumy" continued to post recordings made during
President Abdallahi's detention in the Palais de Congres
after the August 2008 coup. This brings the total number of
recordings released so far to three. The first recording
between Abdallahi and Colonels Hadi and Meguett caused a
sensation in the press. The second and third recordings
involved Abdallahi and human rights organizations and Qatari
mediators, respectively. Taqadoumy Editor-in-Chief Cheikh
Tijani Ould Isselmou (protect) stated to PolAsst and PAO in a
March 26 meeting that the recordings were sent anonymously to
Taqadoumy Publisher Mohamed El Hanefi Ould Dahah (who
currently lives in the US). Comment: Rumors are swirling as
to the source of the leak. The three main theories are: (1)
Aziz (or one of his close associates) leaked the recordings
in an effort to discredit and embarrass General Hadi. The
theory is that Hadi has shown himself to be a little too
power-hungry for Aziz's liking, so he is looking for ways to
discredit him and remove him as head of DGSN to head off any
counter-coups. (2) Vall orchestrated the leaks to embarrass
the High State Council. Supposedly Hadi's office was broken
into a few weeks before the recordings were released; the
theory is that Vall wanted to demonstrate that he still
wields significant influence in the security services. (3)
Someone at a very high level in the High State Council with
access to the recordings acted on their own initiative to
leak the recordings. Some more off-the-wall conspiracy
theorists see either the CIA or Mossad behind the leaks -- in
punishment for the Israeli expulsion. End comment.


12. (SBU) Daddah finally comes off the fence: Ahmed Ould
Daddah's RFD party held its first ever anti-coup rally April
1 at Capital Stadium in Nouakchott. Attendance estimates
placed the crowd at several thousand people. The rally was
well-organized, with buses bringing in supporters
(particularly young supporters) from the poorer neighborhoods
of Nouakchott. Police were stationed around the stadium to
prevent supporters from taking to the streets and marching,
but did not intervene in the rally. In his speech, Daddah
stated publicly that the events of August 6, 2008 were a
"coup d'etat" (not a "rectification movement") and that he
would not participate in the upcoming elections. He praised
the FNDD leaders, several of whom were in attendance,
including National Assembly President Messaoud Ould
Boulkheir, UFP President Mohamed Ould Maouloud, and Tawassoul
President Jemil Ould Mansour. (Interestingly, the mayor of
Nouakchott Ahmed Ould Hamza was in the front row as well.

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Hamza has changed positions regarding the coup in the past,
but appears to be firmly in the anti-coup camp for now).
Furthermore, Daddah said it was time to "take to the streets"
to stop the military's agenda, and called on his supporters
to attend an FNDD march planned for the afternoon of April 2.



13. (C) FNDD march planned: As noted in Para 12, the FNDD
has planned an anti-coup march in Nouakchott for April 2, and
Ahmed Ould Daddah has encouraged his RFD supporters to attend
as well. The municipal authorities have refused to grant a
permit for the march, but the FNDD has said it will proceed
anyway. RSO has learned that the Wali of Nouakchott has
already received authorization to directly command the
Gendarmerie to maintain civil order. RSO FSNI states that
this is the first time the Wali has been granted
authorization prior to an event. (Normally, the Wali must
formally request Gendarmerie assistance from the
Chief-of-Staff after a situation has spiraled out of
control.) Post will follow the situation closely.


14. (C) European visits: Charge met with several of his
European counterparts this week to obtain reactions to
Sarkozy's recent comments and gauge the current sentiment
among the European countries (Septel).


15. (C) Imam provides information: PolOff met April 2 with
Imam Abdallahi Ould Cheikh Sid Mohamed at his request. The
Imam said Aziz planned to transition the presidency before
elections to Rosso Senator and Ouled Bisbaa tribesman Mohcen
Ould El Hadj instead of Senate President Ba Mamadou M'Bare.
He stated that a contact at the presidential palace had
provided him with the information. He also said that Colonel
Ely Ould Mohamed Vall told him he intended to run for
president but would not announce his candidacy until the last
minute. The Imam warned the Embassy that Mattel and Mauritel
cell phone and telephone networks are tapped by the regime.
The reliability of the information provided by the Imam has
not been established.
HANKINS