Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09NICOSIA390
2009-06-17 15:17:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Nicosia
Cable title:  

CYPRUS: "TRNC PM" EROGLU TAKES PRO-SOLUTION LINE

Tags:  PREL PGOV TR CY 
pdf how-to read a cable
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DE RUEHNC #0390/01 1681517
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 171517Z JUN 09 ZFF4
FM AMEMBASSY NICOSIA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 9930
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 1474
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NICOSIA 000390 

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/SE, IO/UNP

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/16/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV TR CY
SUBJECT: CYPRUS: "TRNC PM" EROGLU TAKES PRO-SOLUTION LINE
WITH AMBASSADOR

Classified By: Amb. Frank C. Urbancic for Reasons 1.49(b) and 1.4(d).



C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NICOSIA 000390

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/SE, IO/UNP

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/16/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV TR CY
SUBJECT: CYPRUS: "TRNC PM" EROGLU TAKES PRO-SOLUTION LINE
WITH AMBASSADOR

Classified By: Amb. Frank C. Urbancic for Reasons 1.49(b) and 1.4(d).




1. (C) Summary: "If we cannot open one crossing point, how
can we solve the Cyprus problem?" "TRNC PM" Dervish Eroglu
rhetorically asked the Ambassador in a June 16 meeting.
Eroglu said he supported Turkish Cypriot (T/C) leader Mehmet
Ali Talat, but that Greek Cypriot "intransigence" would
continue absent the threat of a "two-state" solution in the
event of failure. Fresh from a June 11 "state" visit to
Ankara, he said that both PM Erdogan and President Gul firmly
supported Talat and wanted a solution. Eroglu said that he
hoped to close a yawning TL 470 million (USD 305 million)
2009 budget gap through an emergency aid protocol with
Ankara. In a distorted and veiled reference to the Embassy's
support of the 2004 Annan Plan, he said that the U.S. should
not fund activities that led to "polarization" in the T/C
community. For his part, the Ambassador refuted Eroglu's
innuendo and stated that the Embassy's only agenda was
promotion of reunification and bicommunal coexistence. He
urged Eroglu to show maximum flexibility in order to achieve
the reunification of the island--a message the Ambassador
said he also delivered to the Greek Cypriots.

--------------
I want a solution, or a state if that fails
--------------


2. (C) Eroglu, the septuagenarian leader of the nationalist
National Unity Party (UBP) and hitherto a strong proponent of
"TRNC" recognition, largely followed "pro-solution" talking
points in a June 16 meeting with the Ambassador. A recent
convert (apparently under Turkish government pressure) to
supporting the UN-brokered process since his April 19
election, Eroglu said that he was "committed" to a solution
and thus in harmony with T/C leader Talat. That said, he
evinced skepticism of the process and suspicion of his Greek
Cypriot (G/C) interlocutors. He said that G/Cs had scuttled
every attempt at peace since 1974, but had succeeded in
painting Turkey and the Turkish Cypriots as the
"intransigent" party. Unless the U.S. and the international
community made clear that failure in this "last chance" would
be followed by a "two-state" solution, he argued, the Greek

Cypriots would scuttle the present effort. Regarding the
opening of the Limnitis/Yesilirmak crossing, Eroglu said it
would not be worth opening if the T/Cs could not use it to
ship fuel to the T/C enclave/military base at Kokkina.


3. (C) Eroglu said that both President Gul and PM Erdogan
voiced strong support for Talat and the negotiation process
in separate meetings with him during his June 11 "state"
visit to Turkey. He again qualified his statement, adding
that the G/Cs should not be allowed to keep Turkish Cypriots
at the negotiating table forever. He said that his
"government" would try to close a massive 2009 budget deficit
of TL 470 million through cost cutting (120 million) and a
new six-month aid protocol with Ankara (350 million). He did
not go into detail about where he would cut the bloated,
inefficient public sector. (Note: Judging from his June 11
press conference with PM Erdogan, the partial privatization
of Turkish Cypriot Airways and of KIBTEK (electricity
authority),as well as some reduction of generous public
sector benefits, are likely to be on table. End Note).

--------------
Please Don't Interfere!
--------------


4. (C) Eroglu, a fiery opponent of the Annan Plan, warned the
Ambassador against financing activities leading to
"polarization" in the T/C community. He asserted that in the
past "USD 30 million" had been spent to that end--a canard
used by anti-solution G/C and T/Cs to tar US and EU support
for the Annan Plan. The Ambassador responded that the USG's
only agenda was reunification and promoting bicommunal
coexistence and that any funds, but certainly not the highly
exaggerated "USD 30 million," had been spent along those
lines in a transparent fashion. If Eroglu knew of any
problematic use of USG funds, he should inform the Embassy
immediately, the Ambassador said, and he would follow up
personally. The Embassy was responsible to make sure that all
expenditures were fully transparent and the Ambassador was
committed to the requirement. The Ambassador said that all
the parties--including the Greek Cypriots--would have to show
flexibility and courage to end the division of the island.


NICOSIA 00000390 002 OF 002



5. (C) Comment: Eroglu, who seeks to oust Talat in the April
2010 "TRNC Presidential" elections, needs to juggle a
formidable number of balls. First, he must continue to mouth
"pro-solution" rhetoric and not interfere with Talat in order
to mend fences and curry favor with AKP and Erdogan.
According to our T/C contacts, Erdogan still holds a grudge
over Eroglu's knee-jerk rejection of the Annan plan. In that,
he seems to have gotten off to a good start through his
appointment of largely moderate "ministers" and successful
visit to Ankara. Second, he faces the much harder task of
keeping the perpetually bankrupt "ship of state" afloat. To
do that, he needs to squeeze more cash from Ankara, but is
unlikely to commit in any meaningful way to painful public
sector reforms that would alienate T/C voters. Finally, he
needs to soothe the "TRNC First" wing of his party, which is
seething over Eroglu's "sell-out" to Talat. End Comment.



Urbancic