CYPRUS: TURKISH CYPRIOT "GOVERNING" PARTY DOWN,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NICOSIA 000186

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/SE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/09/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL TR CY
SUBJECT: CYPRUS: TURKISH CYPRIOT "GOVERNING" PARTY DOWN,
BUT MAYBE NOT COMPLETELY OUT

REF: A. NICOSIA 17

B. NICOSIA 132

C. NICOSIA 165

Classified By: Ambassador Frank C. Urbancic for reasons 1.4(b) and 1.4
(d).


1. (C) Summary: The "governing" Republican Turkish Party
(CTP) hopes to close a fifteen-point gap with the opposition,
hard-line National Unity Party (UBP) by turning the upcoming
April 19 "parliamentary" elections into a debate over UBP's
retrograde past, rather than CTP's own lackluster governance
and limited success with its pro-solution agenda. CTP
supporters argue that the party can still win, thanks to an
opposition plagued by even higher negative numbers than their
own. Others, however, believe that popular outrage is
insurmountable, caused largely by the dismal economy in
northern Cyprus, and that the best CTP can attain is a close
second-place finish. Thinly-veiled attacks on UBP by "TRNC
President" Mehmet Ali Talat -- officially neutral in the race
but clearly worried over the prospect of an anti-solution,
UBP-led government -- may fall flat with the increasingly
cynical Turkish Cypriot community. CTP insiders report
having received mixed signals over Turkey's preferences and,
to date, no concrete support in their bid to stay in power.
End Summary

"I'll become a butcher if CTP wins!"
--------------


2. (C) A March 3 poll commissioned by leading T/C daily
"Kibris" and conducted by respected polling outfit KADEM put
CTP a distant second with just 28.3 percent of the vote,
while main opposition UBP tallied 43.4 percent. CTP publicly
dismissed the poll as "fabricated," given the paper's
stridently anti-CTP editorial policy, which many attribute to
revenge by its fugitive owner, Asil Nadir, who recently lost
a major government tender. Party insiders confirmed the
dismal figures, however. Talat's press secretary and CTP
Central Executive Committee member Hasan Ercakica confided to
us on February 12 that unreleased polling conducted for Talat
by Turkish companies in January give UBP and CTP numbers
nearly identical to KADEM's. Asim Akansoy, Talat's chief of
staff, told us on March 9 that the "Kibris" poll was sound --
in fact, he had had a Turkish polling company check KADEM's
work and had full confidence in it. KADEM owner Muharrem
Faiz told us on February 3 that he would "become a butcher"
if CTP emerged number-one from the April 19 "parliamentary"
elections.


"We deserve the public's outrage"
--------------


3. (C) Ercakica said on March 5 that CTP deserved the
public's outrage because of its economic mismanagement and
poor governance. He joked that the "TRNC" economy had to be
run like a company, not a "country," since the Turkish
Cypriots did not even control their own monetary policy.
(Note: The economy is the primary issue for Turkish Cypriots
(Ref A).) Respondents to a July 2008 KADEM poll named
inflation as the number-one problem facing the north (36.2
percent),with growing unemployment in third place (26.3
percent). In the March 3 "Kibris" poll, 61.4 percent claimed
to be worse off today than when CTP took "power" in December
2005, a staggering figure since CTP claims to have tripled
per capital GDP to $15,000 in the very same period.


4. (C) Akansoy blamed "PM" and CTP leader Ferdi Sabit Soyer,
who, he charged, constantly antagonized key groups like trade
unions and the business community -- hitherto key elements of
CTP's election formula -- without achieving anything in the
bargain. He complained that Soyer had higher negatives than
the party itself. Akansoy claimed that his polling indicates
a slow erosion of CTP support since 2006, down to its core of
25 percent. It had posted an all-time high of 44.5 percent
in December 2005.

"People are tired of the Cyprus Problem"
--------------


5. (C) CTP, whose raison d'etre is the reunification of
Cyprus as a bi-zonal, bi-communal federation, has been badly
hurt by the slow pace of the current UN-brokered settlement
process and a concomitant attitude of resignation among
Turkish Cypriots. Omer Kalyoncu, CTP's number-two, told us
on February 5 that the Turkish Cypriot people had simply

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grown tired of the Cyprus Problem. Salih Izbul, a CTP
"deputy", joked with us on March 5 that people in the
villages were more interested in high-paying state sector
jobs for their children and constantly needed to be reminded
of UBP's anti-solution stance.


6. (SBU) Polling supports their analysis: according to the
March 3 "Kibris" poll, approximately 63 percent of Turkish
Cypriots support a two-state solution, while 54 percent would
vote "no" if the 2004 Annan Plan referendum were held again
today. KADEM's July 2008 poll paints a similar picture, with
62 percent supporting two independent states and 67 percent
rejecting the Annan Plan. Such attitudes correspond closely
with UBP's rejection of the bizonal, bicommunal UN process
and support for an enduring "TRNC."

"Thankfully UBP candidate list is worse than ours"
-------------- --------------


7. (C) CTP strategists are hoping to tar UBP by capitalizing
on the high personal negatives of a host of pro-UBP and
nationalist figures, as well as a weak UBP candidate list.
CTP's top targets include the septuagenarian hard-line UBP
leader Dervish Eroglu, "Kibris" owner Asil Nadir, and Rauf
Denktash, the pro-Turkey, "deep state" stalwart whom the
pro-CTP press has been trying to link to Ergenekon. Kutlay
Erk, Talat's special envoy and former CTP Nicosia mayor, told
us on March 6 that ham-handed attacks by the Nadir-owned
"Kibris" against CTP, combined with Denktash's call for Talat
to resign in the event of a UBP victory, have motivated the
party faithful. Ercakica, himself critical of CTP's own list
of candidates, joked with us that thankfully the UBP
candidate list -* a largely "usual suspects" group of
fifty-something nationalists -- was less electable than
CTP's.


8. (C) Candidates' personalities and bona fides are
paramount in the intimate Turkish Cypriot community, where
election rules allow voters to split their tickets among
various parties. Pollster Faiz told us that in this
election, up to 18 percent of voters will vote a split
ticket, versus a norm closer to 7-8 percent in prior
"parliamentary" elections. T/C parties zealously await the
announcement of each other's lists to see if they have any
comparative advantages, he added.

CTP Split on Chances to Recover
--------------


9. (C) Party leaders are split on how much of the gap CTP can
close. Erk and Nicosia CTP election chief Unal Findik still
believe that CTP might be able to eke out a narrow victory.
They claim the party has started from a deficit and emerged
victorious in recent races. Others are less sanguine.
Akansoy dubbed CTP's electioneering a "balloon, full of gas
but ultimately hollow." He warned us not to fall for CTP
boasting of a come-from-behind victory, since, according to
his polls, half of undecided voters -- about seven percent of
the electorate -- would not consider voting for CTP under any
circumstances. Ercakica thought the party could narrow the
gap with UBP to about 3-5 points provided its plan to
demonize UBP succeeds. He believes that a close second-place
finish by CTP would make it possible, provided AKP is game,
to forge a three-party coalition that excluded a first-place
UBP.


10. (C) CTP's first volley in its election strategy--a
ham-handed attempt to squeeze back-taxes out of
"Kibris"--appears to have misfired. A call by CTP "Finance
Minister" Ahmet Uzun on March 11 for Nadir to pay an alleged
11 million TL debt(about 6 million dollars) resulted in a
rather large scale anti-CTP rally in front of "Kibris." After
much back and forth, Uzun announced that the papers'
accountants would work with the "Ministry" to pay the back
taxes. Most of our contacts believe the move hurt CTP and its
image as defenders of free speech, hitherto deserved without
reserve.

"The new 'government' will have to support the peace process"
-------------- --------------


11. (C) Talat clearly worries that an election victory by the
hard-line UBP would limit his ability to negotiate and create
a messy cohabitation with the "TRNC forever" party, UBP.
While officially neutral in his role as "President," Talat,
the former CTP leader, has on several occasions stated that
any new "government" has to abide by the bi-zonal,

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bi-communal parameters of the present talks, a clear shot at
UBP. How effective his pro-solution appeals are with a
sullen, resigned Turkish Cypriot community is far from clear,
however.

Unclear whom Ankara favors (if anybody)
--------------


12. (C) CTP insiders say official Turkey does not have a
clear favorite in the race and has done nothing overtly to
support CTP's efforts. Ercakica said that the Turkish
Foreign Ministry, especially Undersecretary Ertugrul Apakan,
would like to see a grand "coalition" of UBP and CTP in order
to force through sorely needed but highly unpopular and
painful public sector reforms. He claimed, however, that
AKP, namely PM Erdogan, FM Babacan, and EU Negotiator Egemen
Bagis, favored (but were not wedded to) a continuation of the
present CTP-ORP coalition--a dim prospect given ORP's own
dismal poll numbers, which hover around the 5 percent
barrier. CTP's pro-solution stance, antipathy towards
Eroglu, and party-to-party connections between ORP and AKP
underpinned AKP's position, Ercakica believed. Akansoy
differed in opinion, however, saying that Erdogan was
"completely fed up" with CTP leader and "PM" Soyer because of
his inconsistency and inability to deliver on promised
reforms. Consequently, it was unclear what help, if any, AKP
would provide to CTP during the elections. Akansoy told us on
March 17 that PM Erdogan told Talat during their impromptu
meeting on March 13 that he "would do his best" to help,
without going into any specifics.


13. (C) Comment: There is no denying the widespread public
anger at CTP over its poor record on governance, which is now
exacerbated by an economic meltdown and an official
unemployment rate hovering around 10 percent. Furthermore,
CTP has a much smaller party base than UBP, which, even in
its worst performance, won 32 percent of the vote in 2005.
Appeals that only CTP can deliver a Cyprus solution may also
fall on deaf ears, given that the present settlement process
has hobbled along without producing major "victories" for
Talat and the CTP-led "government." That said, UBP has
little new to offer the T/C public, is hurt by its highly
unpopular leader Eroglu, and still needs to get through the
next five weeks without making major gaffes.


Urbancic