Niger: Snapshot of the August 4 Referendum

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SUBJECT: Niger: Snapshot of the August 4 Referendum

Ref: a) Niamey 00554, b) Niamey 00531, c) Niamey 00521, d) Niamey
00517, e)Niamey 00504, f) Niamey 00503

NIAMEY 00000568 001.2 OF 002



1. Summary: On August 4, some six million Nigeriens were called to
a referendum vote on a controversial new constitution that would
allow President Tandja to remain in power beyond his
legally-mandated term slated to end on December 22, 2009. While the
referendum took place in a generally calm and peaceful atmosphere in
Niamey, a few incidents were reported in some parts of the country.
The Independent National Electoral Commission (CENI) has started
receiving results from different constituencies, with 37 out of 265
reporting as of the morning of August 5. Controversy is growing
about the size of the voter turnout, which is the main stake of this
referendum. Various international and opposition sources report a
low voter turnout, while the GON refers to a "very high" rate of
participation. The CENI will compile and announce the results
"within five days." End summary.

August 4: Generally Calm, with Scattered Incidents
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2. On August 3, Niger's security forces had an early vote "in order
to be available to ensure security on voting day," a first-time
occurence in Niger. On August 4, polling stations opened rather
slowly, under high police protection due to the opposition's vow to
disturb the referendum (refs A and C). Voter flow was timid and
irregular throughout the day in Niamey and other regional capitals.
Overall, the voting operations went peacefully; however, in the
region of Dosso, there were reports that some people attempted to
destroy polling stations and voting materials. Security forces
arrested several opposition members, as the Minister of Interior
confirmed. There were also some incidents in the region of Tahoua,
where demonstrators in the towns of Illela (opposition leader
Mahamadou Issoufou's hometown) destroyed polling stations and voting
materials and hampered the voting process. Police used tear gas to
control the crowd and arrested several opposition members.

Voter Turnout a Key Indicator of Depth of Support for Tandja
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3. Voter turnout is seen as a key factor for President Tandja to
claim popular support for the referendum. According to media
reports citing the CENI president, the voter turnout claims vary
from 40 to 90 percent. For example, the district of Arlit had a 30
percent voter turnout and 96 percent voted "yes," i.e., in favor of
the new constitution. The district of Bilma noted a voter turnout
of 70 percent, with 96 percent voting "yes." Finally, the village
of Baoudeta saw a 34 percent turnout with 94 percent voting "yes."


4. Anxiety over the level of voter participation is perceptible. The
opposition claims that not many people showed up to vote throughout
the country, and therefore President Tandja should "draw the lessons
of his failure." The spokesperson for the Front for the Defense of
Democracy (FDD) stated that the opposition call for a boycott was
largely observed, and that the voter turnout rate could not have
exceeded eight percent. In a press conference on August 5, the
Alliance of Forces for Democracy and the Republic (AFDR),the ruling
party bloc, slammed foreign media that reported low voter turnout,
accusing them of bias. The AFDR claimed that those reporters
visited only "select" polling stations in Niamey and deliberately
failed to deploy to other regions of the country, hence they could
not provide an accurate picture of the overall voting process that
took place in Niger. GON spokesperson Mohamed Ben Omar stated that
voter turnout was "very high."

President Tandja: "Our Objective has been Obtained"
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5. President Tandja cast his ballot in the Niamey city hall, and
noted that, "It is a great day today. We thank God and the Nigerien
people. Our objective has been attained. We answered the call of
the people." Billboards erected on August 1 and 2 throughout Niamey
urged support for the referendum; on August 4, observers noted that
the billboard messages had been changed overnight to one of thanking
voters for their support.

CENI to Release Results "Within Five Days"
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6. The Independent National Electoral Commission (CENI) has started
receiving results from different constituencies, with 37 out of 265
reporting as of the morning of August 5. Full results are expected
"within five days."

Comment:

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7. President Tandja held the referendum despite the opposition of
key political parties, labor unions, and civil society associations,
and contrary to attempts by the international community to convince
him not to do so. As a consequence, international observers did not
monitor the voting process, even though a group claiming to be an
"observation team from the African Diaspora in Europe" thought that
the vote complied with international standards. Results and further
comments will follow via septel. End Comment.

ALLEN