Niger: Five Day Countdown to Referendum

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TAGS: PGOV KDEM SOCI PHUM ASEC NG
SUBJECT: Niger: Five Day Countdown to Referendum

Ref: a) Niamey 376 b) Niamey 381 c) Niamey 495
d) Niamey 503 e) Niamey 507 f) Niamey 504
g) Niamey 515 h) Niamey 517 i) Niamey 520
j) Niamey 522 k) Niamey 521 l) Niamey 527
m) Niamey 531 n) Niamey 536

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Tensions Mount in Lead-up to August 4 Referendum
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1. Over the month of July, a series of circumstances have
contributed to rising levels of tension in Niger in the pre-August 4
referendum period. The referendum, deemed unconstitutional three
times by the former Constitutional Court (refs A and B),would be a
national vote to approve a new constitution permitting the
administration of President Tandja to remain in office an additional
three years, dropping presidential term limits, and adding a second
legislative chamber. Key events so far in July include the
following:

-- July 1 - The Front for the Defense of Democracy (FDD),a civil
society organization, holds a strike in Niamey to protest the
dissolution of the Constitutional Court (ref C);

-- July 1 - The White House releases a Statement by the Press
Secretary on Niger, which notes U.S. concern about actions by
President Tandja to rule by ordinance and decree and to dissolve the
National Assembly and the Constitutional Court to retain power
beyond his constitutionally-limited mandate. The Statement adds
that these decisions undermine the advancement of good governance
and the rule of law;

-- July 2 - President Tandja announces a new Constitutional Court to
replace the one he dissolved earlier and announces his intention to
hold a referendum to adopt a new constitution (ref D);

-- July 2 - Marou Amadou, FDD spokesperson, FUSAD (United Front for
the Safeguarding of Democratic Achievements) president, and CENI
member, is released from police custody after being detained for
several days for provoking and demoralizing the security and defense
forces (ref D);

-- July 3 - The GON announces that the referendum will be held on
August 4 (ref D). The judiciary permits Dounia to resume radio and
television broadcasting, following the June 29 order by the High
Council for Communications (CSC) Chairperson to cease (ref E);

-- July 4 - Marou Amadou, FDD spokesperson and FUSAD president,
resigns from CENI (ref D);

-- July 5 - Thousands participate in a rally held by FDD in Niamey
(ref F);

-- July 5 - French President Sarkozy states that the political
situation in Niger is "both worrying and disappointing." He added
that democracy and the institutions of governance in Niger are
"directly threatened today";

-- July 6 - The deputy president of Niger's Independent National
Commission on Elections (CENI) resigned in protest against the
referendum;

-- July 7 - Minister of Communication and Government Spokesperson
Mohammed Ben Omar states the constitutional referendum is aimed at
"re-establishing democracy";

-- July 8 - 15 opposition members resigned from CENI in protest
against the body's refusal to accept the ruling of the
Constitutional Court barring the August 4 referendum;

-- July 8 - President Tandja issues a decree empowering the chair of
the CSC to "take every preventive measure without formal notice"
against any media outlet deemed to undermine state security or
public order (ref G);

-- July 9 - Rebel leader Rhissa Ag Boula of the Front of Forces for
Rectification (FFR) warns that violence would be used to disrupt the
referendum, including a threat that voters would be beaten and
polling boxes burned;

-- July 10 - The FDD called on President Tandja to depart from
office, stating that his "multiple perjury besmirches presidential
functions." The FDD also demanded the annulment of the referendum,
the re-establishment of the constitutional court, and a "return to

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constitutional legality." Finally, the FDD declared that President
Tandja should be charged with "high treason for breaking his oath of
office";

-- July 11 - European Commissioner for Development and Humanitarian
Aid Louis Michel states that the EU had written to President Tandja
to advise that it had decided to "postpone" a budgetary support
payment to Niger due to unsatisfactory governance;

-- July 12 - President Tandja launches the August 4 referendum
campaign. Cabinet members are dispatched to the regions to inform
the public regarding the new constitution and to encourage a "yes"
vote (ref H);

-- July 12 - The Council of the Nigerien Bar Association holds a
24-hour strike to protest the dissolution of the Constitutional
Court (ref I);

-- July 13 - Private media outlets announced they would observe a
print media blackout from July 20 - 26 and a radio and television
news blackout on July 21 in response to increased governmental
powers of enforcement over their operations. This impacts roughly
60 publications, 23 radio, and four television stations (ref J);

-- July 15 - Security forces use batons and tear gas to break up a
rally held by a group of women activists associated with the FDD
demonstrating in support of the dissolved Constitutional Court and
its former president (ref K);

-- July 16 - Opposition leader Mahamadou Issoufou states that those
aligned against the August 4 referendum would "intensify" their
efforts to "prevent the referendum from taking place;"

-- July 17 - An anti-referendum conference being held in Zinder is
interrupted by pro-Tazartche youths (Note: "Tazartche" is Hausa for
"let it continue," representing the efforts of those supporting an
extension of President Tandja's presidency. End note.) The event's
organizers vow to continue to hold like events notwithstanding (ref
L);

-- July 17 - Minister of Communication and Government Spokesperson
Mohammed Ben Omar states Niger hoped to "get rid of foreign aid" to
protect its "sovereignty";

-- July 18 - Trade union confederations, opposition political
parties, and civil society organizations against the referendum form
an umbrella grouping, the Coordination of Forces for Democracy and
the Republic (CFDR)(ref L);

-- July 18 - Security forces detain Niger Party for Democracy and
Socialism (PNDS) member Alassane Karfi for questioning following his
July 17 remarks on opposing the August 4 referendum made on Dounia
Television;

-- July 19 - Security forces transfer Karfi to Koutoukale maximum
security prison based on the orders of the public prosecutor;

-- July 20-21 - A high-level delegation from the UN, AU, and ECOWAS
meets on July 20 with the Prime Minister, pro-Tazartche groups, and
anti-referendum groups and on July 21 with President Tandja.
President Tandja states that he responds to "the Nigerien people and
not the international community" (ref M);

-- July 20 - The Inter-Union of Nigerien Workers (ITN),an
association of the nation's seven labor confederations, notifies the
government of its intention to hold a 48-hour strike to commence on
July 23 in opposition to the referendum (ref N);

-- July 21 - Security forces detain former Foreign Minister,
National Assembly Deputy, and Deputy Chairperson of the Niger Party
for Democracy and Socialism (PNDS) Bazoum Mohamed and question him
regarding his participation in opposition efforts to organize a
boycott of the August referendum;

-- July 22 - The government requests the judiciary to ban the ITN's
planned strike. That evening, a Niamey court rules the threatened
strike to be illegal (ref N);

-- July 22 - Calling for a boycott, the FDD states it was ready to
"prevent" the holding of the August 4 referendum;

-- July 23 - Minister of Communication and Government Spokesperson

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Ben Omar states that the strike had been declared illegal because
its motives were not "proper labor demands, but purely political"
(ref N);

-- July 23 - President Tandja holds a press conference for 26
journalists from West Africa during which he states that he served
Niger, not "international opinion." He adds that western heads of
state cannot stop Niger from having a referendum, and notes that,
"Barack Obama has come a long way; he may say what he likes, but I
prefer to leave it at that." President Tandja adds that he "would
be betraying my Koranic oath to the people if I refuse to take the
hand the people have stretched out to me for a third term."
(Comment: This occurred despite his 1999 and 2004 Koranic oaths to
uphold the Constitution, which specifically states that the article
addressing presidential term limits cannot be amended. End
comment.);

-- July 23 - The mayor of Niamey's Commune III refuses to grant a
rally permit to opposition forces who wish to demonstrate on July

26. Opposition representatives declare that they reserved the right
to protest with or without rally permits through the referendum
period. Nonetheless, a pro-referendum rally under the auspices of
the First Lady takes place in Niamey on July 25;

-- July 24 - The CFDR lodges a complaint against the President and
executive members of CENI for their "engagement to organize the
constitutional referendum on August 4 that was ruled illegal by the
Constitutional Court." The CFDR further states that "other
complaints will soon be lodged against CENI members at the local,
district, and regional levels;"

-- July 24 - Opposition representatives again state that they would
hold demonstrations whether or not the government issued permits,
and would continue to protest up to and beyond August 4;

-- July 24 - A delegation from the International Organization of the
Francophonie led by former Burundian President Buyoya meets with
President Tandja and presents him with a personal message from
Francophonie President and former President of Senegal Abdou Diouf;


-- July 27 - Representatives of eight West African NGOs meet
separately with pro and anti-Tazartche political parties and civil
society organizations. They call on President Tandja to reconsider
his referendum plans, but are not able to meet with him. The NGOs
state that they would present a report and advocate for additional
pressure with ECOWAS leaders;

-- July 27 - According to a posting on the Tamtam Information
website, the Belgian minister of development stated that his
government is reviewing the possibility of suspending bilateral aid
to Niger in response to concerns at political developments
underway;

-- July 29 - In an interview with Radio France Internationale,
Minister of Communication and Government Spokesperson Ben Omar
states that President Tandja is ready to "face the consequences"
should the August 4 referendum result in a "no" vote; and

-- July 30 - The ITN launches a strike in Niamey that had been
delayed from July 23-24 when the judiciary ruled it illegal.
Although there is evidence that some workers went on strike,
particularly in banks and government offices, the impact appears to
be limited.

Comment:
--------------

2. Although the referendum issue has created considerable
dissatisfaction among opposition political parties, labor unions,
and civil society, it does not appear that tensions will boil over.
The major reason is that even though many object to the referendum
and believe that President Tandja has taken a series of misguided,
anti-democratic, extra-constitutional steps, he remains widely
regarded as the nation's legitimate leader for the time being. The
real test, it seems, will come later in the year, particularly
following December 22, which would be the end of President Tandja's
second term of office under the 1999 constitution. If the
referendum passes, however, there will be a new republic and he will
have gained a three-year extension in office.

ALLEN