Ambassador Meets with Nigeria's ChargQ d'Affaires

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NIAMEY 000439

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TAGS: PGOV KDEM PREL SOCI NG
SUBJECT: Ambassador Meets with Nigeria's ChargQ d'Affaires

Ref: a) Niamey 406 b) Niamey 344

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Classified by Ambassador Bernadette M. Allen, Reasons: 1.4 b/d


1. (C) Summary: On June 9, Ambassador Allen and Political Officer
(notetaker) met with Muhammad Sani Yunusa, Nigeria's ChargQ d'Affaires
(CDA),to obtain his views on the ongoing political developments in
Niger. (Note: The Government of Nigeria has had a CDA in Niger for the
last 18 months; a new Ambassador is anticipated before the end of June.
End note.) Ambassador asked him to share his views from a bilateral
perspective and a regional perspective in light of Nigeria's
chairmanship of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS).
Mr. Yunusa responded that President Tandja is adamant in his ways,
and unlikely to adhere to the advice of the international community.
He also expressed his concern that political instability in Niger could
cause massive migration of Nigeriens into Nigeria. End Summary.

Government of Nigeria Will Issue Statement
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2. (C) Ambassador Allen asked CDA Yunusa for the Government of Nigeria
views on the ongoing political developments in Niger. He stated that
the government of Nigeria has yet to take an official stance, but
added, "we will have to take a stand soon, and something is in the
works." Mr. Yunusa said that ECOWAS has called for an emergency summit
in Abuja to discuss the political developments in Niger, date to be
determined. He alluded that no official comment from the government of
Nigeria will come until after the proposed summit.

President Tandja Remains Defiant
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3. (C) Mr. Yunusa mentioned that in meetings between President Tandja
and ECOWAS representatives in Niamey on June 5, President Tandja was
resolute in his "tazarche" (Note: Hausa language for "Let it
continue." End note.) plan and professed that Niger is a sovereign
country and other countries should not try to dictate what Niger should
do. CDA Yunusa opined that President Tandja is circumventing the
constitution and that he should adhere to the Constitutional Court's
May 25 opinion. He found it incredulous that Tandja, who approached
former Nigerian President Obasanjo about the need to respect democratic
principles when Tandja was ECOWAS chairman, would now hold disdain for
ECOWAS.

Niger's Minister of Communication Acting Very "Undiplomatic"
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4. (SBU) According to Yunusa, in an interview with BBC on June 6,
President Tandja's Minister of Communications, Mohammed Ben Omar, was
furious with those opposed to President Tandja's plan for a third term.
Stating, "to hell with everyone who says that Niger should not amend
their constitution." In regards to ECOWAS' condemnation of the
constitutional referendum, Minister Ben Omar responded, "Niger made
ECOWAS, ECOWAS did not make Niger." He added, "we know how ECOWAS
members conduct their elections; they can't preach democracy on us."

Niger's Economy Could Suffer from Political Instability
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5. (C) Yunusa expressed concern that the political instability in
Niger could have harmful effects on the Nigerien economy. He believes
that if civil unrest develops in Niger, there could be mass migration
into Nigeria. This potential development would be problematic for the
government of Nigeria. He suggested, "If I had the power, I would
close the border between Niger and Nigeria for three weeks; he asked
facetiously I wonder what the effect disrupted services, such as the
lights not coming on for a few days, might have." (Comment: This is a
reference to most of Niger's power being imported from Nigeria. He was
making the point that Nigeria has levers to push that could make life
difficult for Tandja. End comment.) He then softened his tone stating,
"we hope the situation doesn't degrade to that level."

Role of Traditional Chiefs in Politics
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6. (C) In response to the Ambassador's question about the clash in
Dosso (ref a) and the role of the traditional chiefs, Yunusa responded
that traditional chiefs are "fathers of the nation" and should be
neutral in politics. He expressed his dissatisfaction with the fact
that the government has co-opted traditional chiefs. He believes that
Tandja and his cohorts are willing to employ any means necessary to
ensure that their plan stays on course.

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Economic Motivations, International Observers Lend Credibility
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7. (C) Yunusa stated that President Tandja's motivation for staying in
power was more economic than anything. He cited the recent Areva
mining contract and Chinese oil deals that Niger recently secured. He
believes that future profits from these natural resources have
motivated President Tandja to stay in office.


8. (C) Ambassador asked Yunusa his thoughts on the GON's motives for
responding that observers would be allowed to monitor results of the
constitutional referendum; asked whether he thought it a ploy to lend
legitimacy to the process. Yunusa replied that even though President
Tandja has not objected to international observers, it didn't sound
like an open invitation for observers to him, that the Foreign Minister
delivered the message (ref b) to the diplomatic community more in the
form of "come if you want, but we won't invite you." Yunusa believes
that sending observers would lend credibility to President Tandja's
plan and legitimacy to the constitutional referendum. He said, if
invited, he did not expect Nigeria to participate. Mr. Yunusa added
that the constitutional court already advised that the referendum is
unconstitutional, thus the presence of international observers would
give the referendum semblance of legality. He also concluded that
international observers would most likely not be protected by the
government, were civil unrest to unfold. He expressed concern over
the European Union's continued support for President Tandja, noting
that in recent weeks, the EU publicly gave substantial development
assistance to the GON. He believes that these actions, although
seemingly innocuous, ultimately help to support President Tandja.
Yunusa ended the meeting by informing Ambassador Allen that he would
keep her advised of developments on the ECOWAS special summit on Niger.



9. (U) Minimize considered.