NIGER: DEMOCRACY ACTIVIST, IVLP PARTICIPANT THANKS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NIAMEY 001023

NOFORN
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/W, INR/AA, DRL/EA, AF/PDPA, AND AF/RSA
PARIS FOR AF WATCHER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/31/2019
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM SOCI PREL NG
SUBJECT: NIGER: DEMOCRACY ACTIVIST, IVLP PARTICIPANT THANKS
USG FOR SANCTIONS

Classified By: Public Affairs Officer Robert Tate, Reason: Section 1.4(
d)


1. (C/NF) Summary: PAO met with Marou Amadou, a leading
Nigerien pro-democracy advocate, for a December 28
out-briefing to prepare for his upcoming participation in an
International Visitor Program (IVLP). During the meeting,
Amadou shared his view that the current Nigerien
administration would not last more than three months, a view
that strengthens the hand of the Opposition during the
ongoing Inter-Nigerien Political Dialogue (INPD) under ECOWAS
mediation. He also welcomed USG sanctions against the
Government of Niger (GON),which he believes will be
effective and contribute to a return to democratic rule.
Amadou praised the independent media in Niger, but cautioned
that they are susceptible to GON bribes and coercion. End
summary.


2. (C/NF) Embassy Niamey Public Affairs Officer met with
Marou Amadou, a prominent pro-democracy activist, on December
28 for an out-briefing in advance of his participation in the
"Grassroots Democracy" IVLP from January 23 to February 13,

2010. During a wide ranging discussion on the political
crisis in Niger, Amadou, the President of the United Front
for the Safeguarding of Democratic Achievements (FUSAD);
founding member of CROISADE, a pro-democracy civil society
organization; and spokesperson for the Front for the Defense
of Democracy (FDD),shared his views on the INPD, USG
sanctions against the GON, and the role of the media during
the political crisis (septel).

The Opposition,s Mediation Strategy
--------------

3. (C/NF) Amadou is a member of the opposition delegation for
the ongoing INDP with the GON. Amadou said that the
Opposition is negotiating from a position of strength based
on the conviction that both the Opposition and the Tandja
administration believe that the current Sixth Republic cannot
last beyond three months. He said that now that the
international community has suspended assistance, which
comprises what he claimed to be 80 percent of Niger's budget,
the GON will soon be unable to pay the salaries of civil
servants and the military, which will quickly ratchet up
pressure for political change. The GON cannot rely on China
to subsidize the shortfall, he added, since China, in an
effort to protect lucrative energy and mineral exploration
contracts, is hedging its bets to avoid antagonizing the
Opposition should they end up in power. Amadou said that the
Opposition is willing to offer President Tandja a graceful
exit as a temporary, honorary figurehead without a formal
role during a transitional period, but that the new
constitution approved in the August 4 referendum must be
completely disregarded. Amadou noted that the Opposition is
reluctant to reward President Tandja for his efforts to
subvert Nigerien democracy, but that this was a concession it
is willing to make for a peaceful resolution of the conflict.
USG Sanctions Welcomed
--------------

4. (C/NF) Amadou welcomed recent USG sanctions against the
GON, including the suspension of non-humanitarian assistance,
the restriction of travel of certain members of the GON, and
suspension of AGOA trade benefits. He recognized that the
sanctions would be painful for many in Niger, but noted that
if the United States did not suspend assistance it would be
seen by many as complicity with the GON. He thanked the USG
repeatedly for its clear and consistent support for good
governance and the rule of law in Niger, which has succored
defenders of democracy and isolated the GON, adding that the
people of Niger will always remember how instrumental the USG
was during this crucial moment in their history. Amadou was
particularly pleased to hear of the travel restrictions,
saying that this would be the beginning of the end of Tazarce
("let it continue" in Hausa),President Tandja's plan to
remain in office indefinitely, and rule by decree.

The Media: Willing but Constrained
--------------

5. (C/NF) Amadou is satisfied with the role the independent
media has played during the political crisis, noting that
several newspapers and broadcast media, notably Dounia Media
Group, have been courageous and professional in covering
President Tandja,s moves to consolidate power despite a GON
campaign of harassment and intimidation. He believes the GON
successfully compromised a small number of individual
journalists through what he termed the "jail or the envelope"
approach of offering a choice between possible detention and
cash bribes. The independent media in Niger operates on a

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shoestring and journalist salaries are low, making them
susceptible to such inducements. Amadou again thanked the
USG, particularly for Public Diplomacy-sponsored media
training workshops, vocal support for imprisoned journalists
and press freedoms, and opportunities for journalists to
travel to the United States. (Note: Amadou is a friend of
recent IVLP Edward R. Murrow Program for Journalists
participant Abdourahamane Ousmane. End note.)
ALLEN