MAJOR SHAKEUP POSSIBLE AT OPPOSITION PARTY

C O N F I D E N T I A L NASSAU 000644

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/16/2019
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL BF PINR
SUBJECT: MAJOR SHAKEUP POSSIBLE AT OPPOSITION PARTY
CONVENTION

Classified By: Charge D'Affaires, a.i. Zuniga-Brown for reasons 1.4 (b)
and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: The Progressive Liberal Party (PLP)
leadership and deputy positions will be challenged at next
week,s convention. If Perry Christie retains the leadership
position it will likely cost the PLP the next election.
Candidates for both leader and deputy also have backgrounds
that are problematic and could cause further damage to an
already negative public perception of the PLP. Regardless of
what happens, there should be no long term ramifications for
the U.S.-Bahamian relationship, given that both parties are
supportive of U.S. policies. END SUMMARY.

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Public ready to throw out the old, party
voters not so fast
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2. (C) PLP insiders told PolOff that the outcome of the
October 21-23 Convention could either unite or divide the
party. Party stalwarts firmly support Christie while younger
party members are eager for a change. There is also broad
public support for Christie to step down and let the younger
generation take up the reins. Christie appears determined to
hold onto power despite challenges from attorney Paul Moss,
Member of Parliament Fred Mitchell, and Senator Bernard
Nottage.

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Christie stacks the deck
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3. (C) PolOff contacts believe that Moss is being
deliberately set up as an unwinnable candidate so that
Christie can retain leadership. The National General Council
of the PLP recently voted against resolutions aimed at
protecting Christie from competition. Moss, 43 years of age,
faces an uphill battle including having never held office and
possible personal legal prosecution. He was recently sued
over a USD 1.1 million escrow he administered. A U.S. firm
is seeking judgment against him for failing to return the
money in accordance with the agreed upon terms. Moss has
also made statements that could have an effect on trade with
the U.S. as he has indicated he favors protectionist policies.

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Stalwarts determine successors
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4. (C) Despite public support for a change in leadership, it
is the party stalwarts who will determine the ultimate
successors of the party. These stalwarts overwhelmingly
favor Christie. Voting at the convention is by secret
ballot. Each constituency delegate and National General
Council Member is entitled to one vote in addition to six
votes from the Progressive Young Liberals. The candidate for
party leader must obtain more than one half of the votes
cast. The candidate for deputy must obtain more votes than
any other challenger.

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Christie threatens &scorched earth policy8
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5. (C) Although Christie warned of a &scorched earth
policy8 against those who dared to challenge him, Member of
Parliament (MP) Fred Mitchell, former Minister of Foreign
Affairs, announced his candidacy for the position on October

14. PLP members angrily denounced him for &daring to
challenge Christie.8 Mitchell is also publically viewed as
an unviable candidate due to his alleged homosexual
orientation and being unmarried.


6. (C) Senator The Honorable Dr. Bernard Nottage also
announced he will run for leader on October 15. After losing
the PLP leadership battle in 2000 he founded a third party,
the Coalition for Democratic Reform. Nottage was favored to
win the leadership position in 2000 until Sir Lynden
Pindling, the former Prime Minister, announced he would
support Perry Christie. Nottage rejoined the PLP in 2005.
He is viewed as the only significant threat to Christie. He
is well respected in the party and among the public at large.

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Three way race for Deputy
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7. (C) The Deputy position is sought by three PLP Members of
Parliament: Obediah (Obie) Wilchcombe, Phillip (Brave) Davis
and Jerome Fitzgerald. Both Christie and the current deputy

Christine Pratt are rumored to favor Davis. Davis is a
criminal attorney who is best known for his vigorous defense
of high-profile narcotics traffickers, including Samuel
"Ninety" Knowles.


8. (U) The three contenders have garnered significant media
attention in the last few months by criticizing high profile
government projects such as the container port relocation,
the cost of the Miss Universe Pageant, environmental issues
at the Nassau airport and the National Training Program.
Senator Fitzgerald, an attorney and business owner, has been
one of the most outspoken critics. He was appointed Senator
after the general election in 2007.


9. (C) Wilchcombe, former Minister of Tourism, could be
tainted by his involvement in the recent extortion case
surrounding the actor John Travolta. Wilchcombe testified
last week that he had several conversations about the issue
with the former Senator, and his law partner, Pleasant
Bridegwater, one of the two accused of attempting to extort
USD 25 million from the actor. Despite testimony indicating
he had no knowledge of Bridgewater,s alleged involvement in
the plot, FBI sources indicate that tape recordings confirm
his complicity in the scandal. Wilchcombe is also rumored to
be homosexual.

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PLP continues to battle public image issues
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10. (C) The public perception of PLP corruption and
indecisiveness cost them the 2007 election. An independent
report commissioned by the PLP after the election loss noted
that the number one reason that voters did not vote for the
PLP was the perceived weak leadership of Christie. Although
he was personally regarded as honest, he was strongly
criticized for being unable to reign in his cabinet and
swiftly deal with renegade members.


11. (C) Currently complicating this public perception is
Christie,s possible association with former PLP treasurer
Sidney Cambridge, indicted in a money laundering scandal last
month. Media reports claim the laundered money could have
been used for the 2007 PLP election campaign. An anonymous
source told the media that Christie met privately with
Cambridge and another member of the accused party both in
Miami and at Christie,s home. The PLP issued a press
statement in response to Cambridge,s resignation stating
that his position as treasurer had nothing to do with the
charges against him, which related to his capacity as an
attorney. The release said that Cambridge &is entitled to
the presumption of innocence.8 In an attempt to distance
himself from the issue, Christie said he could confirm that
none of the funds raised for the 2007 election were received
from those named in the indictment.

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Comment
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12. (C) Christie is likely to retain leadership because the
party stalwarts, and more importantly those who are internal
voting members of the party, believe the PLP could not win
another election without Christie. More interesting is the
challenge for Deputy, where whoever wins will be seen as the
next in line to be the leader after Christie. Davis is the
strongest contender for the deputy position and has been
executing an excellent public relations campaign. Further
strengthening Davis, bid is Wilchcombe,s history of
questionable associations and current involvement in the
Travolta trial. Regardless of who wins the top two spots
there will likely be little if any ramifications for the
U.S.-GCOB relationship.



ZUNIGA-BROWN