Third Country National NIV Validation Study - 2007-2008 B

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 NASSAU 000451

UNCLASSIFIED

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: CVIS CMGT KFRD BF
SUBJECT: Third Country National NIV Validation Study - 2007-2008 B
Visa Issuances


1. SUMMARY: Of its more than 340,000 residents, The Bahamas hosts
approximately 40,000 Third Country Nationals (TCNs) who provide the
bulk of low-paid labor and domestic services in the country. The
Turks and Caicos Islands similarly host a large TCN population. The
largest of these groups is the Haitian community. Post completed
validation studies of 386 B1/B2 issuances with Haitian nationality
and 315 persons of Jamaican, Guyanese, Chinese, Cuban and Filipino
nationality (dubbed "All other TCNs") who received B1B2 visas
between September 30, 2007 and October 1, 2008. The overall
overstay percentage for both Haitians and all other TCNs is low,
averaging a 3.15% rate. However, the typical confirmed and
suspected overstay applicant for both studies was a student between
10-19 years of age or a non-Haitian TCN of retirement age. The
results indicate that a significant number of young applicants leave
The Bahamas to attend public school in the U.S.


2. METHODOLOGY: Post conducted a study of 385 B1/B2 visa recipients
of Haitian nationality and conducted a separate, concurrent study of
314 B1/B2 visa recipients from five TCN groups normally resident in
the Bahamas. Due to their socioeconomic status in The Bahamas and
abroad, post considered these particular groups most susceptible to
overstaying in the United States. These nationalities are Jamaican,
Guyanese, Chinese, Cuban and Filipino.


3. The validation study covered a 365-day period from September 30,
2007 until October 01, 2008. This date range was chosen to ensure
that Post would avoid the possibility of mislabeling individuals
currently present in the United States who have not exceeded their
six month authorized stay in the U.S. as overstays. A CCD-generated
list of 707 Haitian B1/B2 recipients and 1,650 "Other TCN" B1/B2
recipients was generated. Random sample sizes of 385 (Haitian) and
314 (All other TCNs) were obtained using the guidance set forth by
CA/FPP. There is a standard deviation of 3.36 at the 95% confidence
interval for the Haitian study and a standard deviation of 4.97 at
the 95% confidence interval for the "Other TCN" study.


4. DATA COLLECTION: Post made at least four attempts to contact
applicants over the age of 14 by phone at different times of the
day. Applicants were told that the U.S. Embassy was conducting a
survey of visa recipients and were asked questions such as "When did
you go to the US?" "When did you return?" "How long was your stay"
and "Did you encounter any problems with law enforcement in the
United States?" In order to achieve maximum accuracy, Post sent all
applicant data (including children under 14) to be checked against
the DHS Arrival Departure Information System (ADIS) and the
Automated Targeting System (ATS). This two-pronged approach was
used to mitigate the high likelihood of inaccuracies that arise from
use of only one data collection method. Overstay results obtained
by phone were confirmed in ADIS/ATS. Once the data was collected by
both means, applicants were placed into one of four status
categories described below.


5. THE FOUR STATUS CATEGORIES
a. Returned:
Of the total 385 visa issuances for Haitians only, we confirmed that
321 returned with no evidence of overstaying in the United States.


Of the 314 visa issuances for all other TCNS, we confirmed that 271
returned with no evidence of overstaying in the United States.

b. No Travel:
A total of 21 Haitian visa recipients did not use their B1/B2 visas
to travel to the United States.

A total of 21 other TCN visa recipients did not use their B1/B2
visas to travel to the United States.

When asked why they did not use their B1/B2 visas to travel, they
responded with answers such as employment loss, no financial means,
ill family member or a death in the family.

b. Inconclusive/Possible Overstay:
A total of 30 Haitian visa recipients were classified as
inconclusive or a possible overstay.

A total of 14 other TCN visa recipients were classified as
inconclusive or a possible overstay.

Post placed individuals under this category if four attempts to
contact the applicant were unsuccessful and ADIS records on the
applicant's travel did not clearly demonstrate the applicant had
returned from the U.S. Post did not classify these individuals as
overstays because it cannot be reasonably assumed that they are now
living in the US; it is equally likely they had not returned their
I-94 cards for ADIS input and were no longer using the phone number
recorded in NIV.
c. Overstays:
This category consists of 13 overstays for Haitian recipients.

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There were 8 overstays for all other TCN recipients.

Applicants that fall under this category include those whose
relatives confirmed the visa holder is now living in the United
States, those who moved from the address they provided at the time
of visa issuance and left no forwarding address, and those for whom
the phone numbers provided at the time of visa issuance were
disconnected. Post used ADIS data checks, to determine that the
applicants were indeed overstays in the United States.


6. Results: Post determined that 2.19% of all Haitians and 2.55% of
all other TCNS overstayed in the United States after entering on the
B visa issued to them. General results are listed below:
Nationality Total # Confirmed Never Inconclusive/ Overstays
Return Traveled Possible
Overstay

Haitians 385 83.38% 5.45% 7.79% 3.38%
Guyanese 47 85.11% 4.25% 10.64% 0%
Philippines 58 87.93% 5.17% 5.17% 1.72%
Chinese 11 81.82% 18.18% 0% 0%
Cubans 14 92.86% 0% 0% 7.14%
Jamaicans 184 85.87% 7.61% 3.26% 3.26%

Status of Haitian Visa Recipient Percentage
Returned with no evidence of overstay 83.38
No Travel 5.45
Inconclusive/possible overstay 7.79
Overstay 2.19


Status of Visa Recipient on "Other TCNS" Percentage

Returned with no evidence of overstay 86.30
No Travel 6.69
Inconclusive/possible overstay 4.50
Overstay 2.55



7. Detailed Analysis: The study evaluated the individuals in each of
the three status categories of age, gender and occupation. All
Results are listed by percentage.

a. Status Category by Age with Haitians (by percentage)

Age Confirmed Never Inconclusive/ Overstay
Return Traveled Possible
Overstay
0-9 76.19 9.52 14.28 9.52
10-19 72.72 2.27 13.64 11.36
20-29 86.66 5 5 3.33
30-39 92.59 4.63 1.85 0.93
40-49 81.40 4.65 11.63 2.33
50-59 80.43 10.87 8.69 0
60-69 78.57 14.28 7.14 0
70+ 75 0 25 0

COMMENT: The results indicate that children of Haitian nationality
between the ages of 0 and 19 were more likely to overstay than
working-age applicants. A high percentage of middle-aged applicants
had inconclusive results, likely due to the fact that this age group
changes residents frequently. Elderly applicants between the ages of
50 and 70 tended not to travel.

b. Status Category by Age with all TCNS

Age Confirmed Never Inconclusive/ Overstay
Return Traveled Possible
Overstay
0-9 80.78 0 15.38 3.85
10-19 74.19 9.68 6.45 9.68
20-29 88.09 2.38 7.14 2.38
30-39 90.72 3.09 5.15 1.03
40-49 86.49 5.40 6.76 1.35
50-59 88.88 3.70 7.40 0
60-69 85.71 7.14 0 7.14
70+ 66.66 0 33.33 0

COMMENT: The results indicate that school-age children of at-risk
TCN groups are more likely to overstay than working-age applicants.
A significant percentage of applicants who are likely to have just
entered retirement (ages 60-69) are also likely to overstay.

c. Status Category by Gender

Nationality Sex Confirmed Never Inconclusive/ Overstays
Return Traveled Possible
Overstay

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Haitians Females 84.15 4.27 8.54 3.04
Males 82.35 6.33 7.24 4.07
Guyanese Females 84.61 3.85 11.54 0
Males 85.71 4.76 9.52 0
Philippines Females 87.93 5.17 5.17 1.72
Males 87.5 4.17 8.33 0
Chinese Females 81.11 18.18 0 0
Males 50 50 0 0
Cubans Females 100 0 0 0
Males 66.67 0 0 33.33
Jamaicans Females 84.13 4.76 7.94 3.17
Males 89.65 0 6.70 3.45
COMMENT: Haitian, Jamaican and Cuban males are more likely to
overstay than their female counterparts. Guyanese and Filipino
females are more likely to overstay, although there is a
significantly higher percentage of female workers of these
nationalities living and working in the Bahamas.

d. Status Category by Occupation - Haitian Study

Occupation Confirmed Never Inconclusive/ Overstay
Return Traveled Possible
Overstay
Not on
Application 82.61 0 17.39 0
Retired 75 25 0 0
Housewife 91.67 0 8.33 0
Student 70 50 13.33 11.67
Toddler/baby 85.71 0 14.28 0
Services 88.40 3.35 3.35 2.90
Laborer 87.50 3.90 6.25 2.34
Gardener 79.31 17.24 3.45 0
Construction 84.61 0 15.38 0
Professional 76.19 14.28 4.76 4.76
Self-employed 75 25 0 0
Teacher 100 0 0 0
Unemployed 0 0 100 0

COMMENT: Students comprised the highest overstay percentage. This
result concurs with post's overstay rate breakdown by age.
Retirees, construction workers, laborers and Haitian nationals
working in the service sector are the least likely to overstay.

e. Status Category by Occupation - "Other TCN" Study

Occupation Confirmed Never Inconclusive/ Overstay
Return Traveled Possible
Overstay
Not on
Application 81.48 7.41 11.11 0
Retired 60 0 20 20
Housewife 75 25 0 0
Student 78.72 6.38 8.51 6.38
Toddler/baby 69.23 0 23.07 7.69
Services 80.76 1.92 9.61 3.85
Laborer 90.47 3.17 4.76 1.59
Gardener 0 0 0 0
Construction 100 0 0 0
Professional 92.98 3.51 3.51 0
Self-employed 100 0 0 0
Teacher 92.12 2.94 2.94 0
Unemployed 0 0 0 0

COMMENT: Among the "Other TCN" study applicant occupations,
students and small children are also most likely to overstay their
authorized period of stay in the U.S. Professionals, construction
workers, teachers, self-employed individuals and housewives are
among the least likely to overstay their visa.

CONCLUSIONS


8. Third-Country National residents in The Bahamas and the Turks and
Caicos (TCI) enjoy a relatively better standard of living than in
their countries of origin. This especially holds true for members of
the Haitian community; many of whom have lived here over 10 years.
The Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos, like the United States, are
therefore perceived as a destination for economic migrants where
employment opportunities are available and established enclaves of
the studied nationalities exist and thrive. The overall results
indicate that Haitian and other TCN communities have established
fairly strong socioeconomic ties to The Bahamas and the Turks and
Caicos and are currently unlikely to overstay when obtaining a visa.
The results support the gradual decline of Post's refusal rate of
Haitian applicants over the past four years - from 50.11% in 2005 to
26.19% in 2008. Refusal rates of the five "Other TCN" nationalities
have remained constant since 2005.


9. In spite of most applicants' ties to The Bahamas, a review of the
overstay results point to a trend in which resident Haitian and TCN

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parents, upon obtaining their own full-validity visas in Nassau,
apply for visas for their younger children in order to send them to
live in the United States for educational purposes. It is unknown
whether their parents' previous visits in the US were preparation
for the move or whether relatives and friends living in the U.S.
offered to house the children while they attend school. It is also
unknown whether these children intend to return to The Bahamas
following graduation from high school. Given the disproportionately
high overstay rate of students and young children in both studies,
Post is reevaluating its current interview and application policies
for children under the age of 14 and will more closely examine these
applicants' parents' financial ability to afford multiple family
vacations to the U.S. Post also intends to further scrutinize
retiree-age applicants from the "Other TCN" nationality groups.


10. COMMENT: Post believes this study remains valid as long as the
current status-quo (lax enforcement allowing long-time and recently
arrived Haitian migrants to live in The Bahamas and TCIs) remains in
place. However, Bahamian immigration officials recently announced
plans to increase efforts to stamp out illegal immigration and to
reduce the number of foreign workers in the country. Post will
conduct additional studies next year to determine whether these new
GCOB initiatives result in an increased number of Haitian and "Other
TCN" overstays in the United States. END COMMENT


ZUNIGA-BROWN