OPPOSITION DECRIES MEDIA BIAS, SUPPORTS LEADER -

C O N F I D E N T I A L NASSAU 000141

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/05/2019
TAGS: ECON PGOV PHUM BF
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION DECRIES MEDIA BIAS, SUPPORTS LEADER -
FOR NOW

REF: A. 07 NASSAU 1196

B. 08 NASSAU 146

C. 08 NASSAU 56

D. 08 NASSAU 294

E. NASSAU 13

F. NASSAU 63

G. NASSAU 62

H. NASSAU 73

Classified By: Classified by Charge Zuniga-Brown for reasons 1.4(b) and
(d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Fallout from the alleged Travolta extortion
case has sparked a new round of media commentary and
speculation about the prospects of the opposition Progressive
Liberal Party (PLP) and its longtime leader Perry Christie.
PLP officials uniformly accuse the media of pro-government
bias. With several opposition leaders tarnished by the
scandal, Christie has emerged strengthened as a unifying
force, despite what most see as his lackluster performance in
government and opposition. While both leading parties are
likely to face leadership successions before the next polls,
the PLP,s dilemma is more acute given its surprise election
loss in May 2007 and a series of subsequent setbacks. Facing
a demoralized and disorganized opposition, meanwhile, the
governing Free National Movement (FNM) is secure in power and
able to concentrate on major policy challenges. END SUMMARY.

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BACKGROUND: PLP,s BAD STRETCH
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2. (C) The last two years have not been good to the
opposition Progressive Liberal Party (PLP). The
scandal-prone PLP unexpectedly lost the May 2007 elections to
the Free National Movement (FNM) amid plausible charges of
ineptitude and corruption (ref A). Unable to come to terms
with defeat, the party pursued three separate election court
challenges in a bid to reverse the poll results, losing two
cases and abandoning the third in 2008. The first court
decision went against the PLP in another way: the judgment
stoked suspicions that the PLP sought to manipulate the
election process to its own advantage through last-minute
gerrymandering of constituency boundaries, in a bungled
attempt that saw them lose the elections instead (ref B).


3. (C) Before the judicial nails were even hammered into the
PLP strategy,s coffin, a youngish PLP Member of Parliament,
Kenyatta Gibson, quit the party, declared his independence,
and denounced long-serving PLP leader Perry Christie (ref C).
The acrimonious and very public exchange of insults in
January 2008 upset the PLP leadership,s political calculus
and strengthened the FNM's effective parliamentary majority
while PLP election challenges were still pending before the
courts, rendering them essentially meaningless. Gibson,s
vociferous criticism of Christie in the press distracted and
embarrassed the opposition at a very sensitive juncture and
re-opened post-election debates about the party leader,s
responsibility for the defeat at the polls.

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CHRISTIE,S CREDENTIALS QUESTIONED,
BUT UPHELD ) SO FAR
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4. (C) The series of post-election setbacks raised further
doubts about Christie,s leadership capacity and judgment,
whether in choosing his friends and candidates or charting a
course for the party as a whole. Many observers inside and
outside the PLP questioned his fitness for the top job. Yet
months of post-election recriminations and debates -- about
the need for an honest analysis of the reasons for the PLP,s
defeat or the prospects for a leadership succession -- came
to naught in February 2008, when the PLP held an
anti-climactic party convention at which Christie,s
leadership went unchallenged. Party elders apparently judged
that it was the wrong time to launch a leadership debate.
The convention was historic, nevertheless, for seeing the
election of the first female Chairman of the PLP, Glennys
Hanna-Martin, daughter of the current Governor General and
PLP stalwart, Arthur Dion Hanna.


5. (C) Speculation over primacy in the PLP gradually died
down as all eyes turned to the economy. The U.S. sub-prime
mortgage meltdown and credit crunch offered an opening for
the opposition to attack the government,s handling of major
investment decisions, especially after the 2.6 billion dollar
Baha Mar development in Nassau,s Cable Beach stalled in
March 2008 (ref D). Foreign-financed development stopped in
its tracks by the end of the year as a full-blown financial
hurricane hit the U.S. in September 2008, with the impact on
tourism and employment felt almost immediately through
large-scale job-cuts in the hotel sector (ref E). In the
second half of 2008, as the economic storm gathered steam,

PLP leaders seemed to rally. They increasingly directed
their criticisms at the party in power,s handling of the
growing economic crisis, rising unemployment, and hardship
among ordinary people.

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TRAVOLTA SCANDAL DERAILS PARTY (
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6. (C) Then news of the alleged extortion plot targeting the
Travolta family broke in mid-January 2009 (ref F),wrecking
havoc on the PLP in The Bahamas, second city, Freeport.
Accused Senator Pleasant Bridgewater (n.b. the unsuccessful
plaintiff in the second, failed election court case) resigned
her appointed post even before her indictment for abetting
extortion. The scandal has also compromised ) most analysts
outside the PLP feel, irreparably ) the future leadership
credentials of top Christie rival, lone PLP Grand Bahama MP,
and ex-Tourism Minister Obie Wilchcombe (who is, unluckily,
also Bridgewater,s business partner). Fallout may yet
ensnare Allyson Maynard-Gibson, former Attorney General and
Travolta family lawyer, in further intraparty intrigue.
While damage from the indictments is still being assessed,
the PLP is clearly weakened and once again distracted with
talk of scandal and internal rivalries.

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( REVIVES LEADERSHIP RUMORS
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7. (C) The succession rumors have now resumed in full force,
well in advance of the PLP,s anticipated November 2009
convention. At least a half-dozen old-guard members and a
number of up-and-coming outsiders are thought to harbor
ambitions. Several make all analysts, short lists of future
PLP leaders, in addition to the now discredited Wilchcombe
and Hanna-Martin, who is considered a long-shot. The usual
favorite is Bernard Nottage, leader of opposition business in
parliament, once co-leader of the PLP, and Christie,s
perennial rival for the top post. Alfred Sears, former
Attorney General, is another party old-timer who gets good
odds. Unlike the previous two, Philip &Brave8 Davis, a
parliamentarian and partner in Christie,s law firm, has
recently made his leadership ambitions public. The talkative
and media-savvy ex-Foreign Minister Fred Mitchell is
disqualified by many for reasons unrelated to his political
skills. (He is unmarried and rumored to be gay, a
non-starter in the extremely socially conservative Bahamas.)
But he is &constantly campaigning8, in the words of one
pro-government political analyst, and has perhaps the highest
public profile of any PLP official. Frank Smith is another
politician regarded as a long-shot as a relatively young,
junior MP in a field still dominated by the party old guard.
He is married to the daughter of a major PLP financier, a
fact which a political reporter for a major daily see as his
greatest and perhaps only asset in the contest.

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PLP OFFICIALS SLAM MEDIA BIAS
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8. (C) As media and political commentators once again rake
over last year,s speculative coals in the aftermath of the
latest high-profile PLP scandal, opposition leaders at all
levels are crying foul. PLP officials uniformly and
energetically accuse the main newspapers, including a
gossip-mongering tabloid rag, of pro-government bias. In
meetings with EmbOffs, ranking PLP leaders, including
Mitchell and Smith, took the media to task for focusing so
much attention on the timing of an anticipated succession
struggle instead of highlighting the government,s poor
record of economic management. At the same time, they were
tight-lipped on the issue of leadership succession.
Meanwhile press leaks, which apparently reveal the inner
workings of the party hierarchy to a national audience,
continue to multiply and suggest that factionalism is alive
and well.


9. (C) Just as PLP officials allege, the party,s detractors
are taking no end of public delight in the PLP,s political
woes. By all accounts, PLP stalwarts are just as surely
repositioning themselves behind-the-scenes in light of new
political realities, at the expense of a crafting a clear
alternative to FNM policies. The PLP has lost its public
footing once again and squandered the opening provided by
unflattering reviews by Standard and Poor,s of the FNM,s
economic performance and &loss of momentum8 in foreign
investment (ref G). Mitchell and Smith appeared unconcerned,
oddly enough, in recent talks with EmbOffs about the effects
on their constituents of the current economic fallout, which
seems to provide the clearest opening for the PLP,s return
to power at the next elections.

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CHRISTIE STRENGTHENED AS UNIFIER

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10. (C) Some media commentators initially thought that the
extortion scandal would fatally undermine Perry Christie, who
has presided over the PLP for a decade. Analysts agree that
Christie cannot feel secure as party leader in the long term.
Even a very junior PLP youth official privately cited
Christie,s sub-par performance and tolerance of indiscipline
as factors in their 2007 election defeat, showing how
ingrained and widespread such attitudes have become not only
in the wider public, but inside the PLP itself. Yet
Christie,s leadership position now actually seems
strengthened, as he can plausibly claim to be the only
unifying force on the scene.


11. (C) Most leading PLPs are conspicuously silent or are
following Christie,s lead in public statements calling for
party unity in the face of internal upheaval and external
media attacks. The disgraced Wilchcombe, for example, has
reemphasized his professed allegiance to Christie and echoed
the party leader,s unity call. Other leading PLPs seem to
recognize that, though theirs is a battered machine in need
of retooling, now is not the time to look under the hood )
let alone change the driver. The very factionalism that
weakens the PLP as a coherent opposition force, ironically,
may now serve to shore up his position at the top of the
party as it pulls together to face threats from the outside.

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NO STRONG CONTENDERS AS ELECTIONS FAR OFF
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12. (C) There is no indication, for the moment, that any PLP
politician wishes to mount an open challenge to Christie,
especially in the present stormy conditions. It is not
clear, perhaps more importantly, whether any one leader
commands sufficient support within the party leadership, the
rank-and-file, or among party financiers to unseat Christie
in a contested race. The leader of the PLP,s youth wing
suggested privately to EmbOffs that the contest for the
deputy leader position at the next party convention may well
serve as the first act in the transition at the top, with the
winner taking the mantle of party leader from Christie at a
later date.


13. (C) Through it all, the stolid FNM is firmly in charge
and shows it through an ambitious legislative agenda, on the
one hand, and several high-profile public sector reform and
personnel house-cleaning efforts on the other (ref H). These
may be criticized by PLP partisans, but they are embraced by
the people who are tired of the poor service and corruption
that in the minds of many is inextricably linked with the
PLP,s last term in office. Facing a demoralized and
disorganized opposition, the FNM can concentrate its energies
on the major challenges facing the country ) the economy,
illegal immigration, crime ) without distractions or hard
questions about its own future leadership succession.

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COMMENT
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14. (C) Change at the top is still worse than the status quo
for the PLP as long as national elections remain a distant
prospect. The PLP,s internal turmoil is likely to remain
protracted, semi-public, and indecisive, with the existing
rivalries simmering below the surface at least until the next
party convention. If the deputy leader position is contested
later this year, which is likely given the incumbent,s
signaled retirement plans, this would provide an immediate
outlet for the ambitions of some of Christie,s rivals, and
perhaps set them up for a bid at the top spot later on. A
controlled fight over the deputy leader job would also extend
Christie,s tenure as leader for another year or more and yet
could prepare the stage for a transition at the top. With
elections unlikely before 2012, plenty of time remains for
any potential outcome to be engineered, as is most likely, in
advance of the next campaign. For that reason, perhaps, the
best potential Christie rivals will continue to keep their
cards close to their chests. In the meantime, a show of PLP
unity is a high priority in order to portray some semblance
of discipline and order as the extortion charges wind their
way through the courts.
ZUNIGA-BROWN