SOMALIA - TFG PREVIEWS OUTREACH TO ABGAL AND TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NAIROBI 001669

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/E

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/03/2019
TAGS: PROV PINR SOCI KDEM SO
SUBJECT: SOMALIA - TFG PREVIEWS OUTREACH TO ABGAL AND TO
PUNTLAND; DESCRIBES SUPPORT TO AHLU SUNNAH WAL JAMA'A

Classified By: Somalia Unit Counselor Bob Patterson for reasons 1.4 (b,
d).


1. (C) Summary: The TFG Prime Minister, Somalia's Envoy to
Kenya Ambassador Nur "Americo," and the TFG Minister for
Women and Family Affairs Fauziya Mohammed Sheikh shared their
impressions of the functioning of the Transitional Federal
Government as a result of their recent interactions in
Mogadishu. Ambassador "Americo" and the Minister both
insisted that President Sharif had fully recovered from
setbacks on the Mogadishu battlefield as well as from the
June 18 assassination of key Minister of National Security
Omar Hashi. Sharif was now determined to reach out to the
Abgal, who to all appearances have not supported him to date
in Mogadishu. He was also perhaps ready to make some Cabinet
changes. According to the Prime Minister, the TFG was
providing significant aid to Ahlu Sunnah Wal Jama'a (ASWJ) in
the central regions, including a July 31 charter flight
delivery of ammunition and weapons. The Prime Minister
seemed reluctant to meet with Puntland President "Faroole,"
as President Sharif has been urging him to. End summary.

Rumored Abgal Outreach
--------------


2. (C) Somalia's Envoy to Kenya Mohammed Ali Nur "Americo"
told Somalia Unit immediately after his return to Nairobi
from Mogadishu on July 28 that President Sharif was finally
determined to reach out to his own Abgal clan after months of
ignoring complaints that they were not adequately represented
in the TFG --where the President is the only Abgal. Sharif's
neglect seemed to have contributed to the apparent failure of
the Abgal to fight for the TFG during al-Shabaab's takeover
of the Mogadishu Abgal neighborhoods of Medina, Karaan, and
Abdi Aziz.


3. (C) During "Americo's" visit to Mogadishu, Sharif, for the
first time according to "Americo," was willing to discuss his
problems with the Abgal. "Americo" found Sharif to be "very
talkative," which he ascribed in part to the absence from
Mogadishu of Deputy Prime Minister and Sharif confidante
Sharif Hassan. "Americo" (himself an Abgal) arranged a lunch
for Sharif in Mogadishu with a prominent Abgal elder, and had
plans to host a larger lunch in Nairobi for influential
Kenya-based clan members. On July 31, "Americo" reported that
the TFG had decided to appoint three new Abgal government
officials in an effort to build loyalty among members of the
clan. The rumored appointees were:

-- Hassan Sheikh (Hawiye/Abgal/Wa'esli) would head a
newly-created Ministry of Finance;

-- Ambassador Isse Dereh (Hawiye/Abgal/Wabudhan/Daud) would
receive a high-ranking TFG position to be determined;

-- Dr. Osman Duffleh (Hawiye/Abgal/Isse) would become the
Minister of State for Health.

(Note: There seems to be a sound tactical logic to the
inclusion of these three sub-clans. Hassan Sheikh hails from
the same sub-clan as former TFG Prime Minister Gedi and
rumored Hassan Dahir Aweys financier Mahmoud Omar Adani.
Warlord Musa Sude Yalahow, whose militia has backed the TFG
in Mogadishu, is from the Wabudhan, while Duffleh and Dereh
are influential figures in their own right.)


4. (C) There was also talk, "Americo" said, of appointing an
Abgal General to the TFG security forces, but some worried
that the sudden appearance of so many Abgal in the TFG would
spark a backlash. (Note: none of the para 3 appointments
have been announced to date.) "Americo" believed that
Sharif's ICU background meant that he remained skeptical of
clan politics, but that he now understood that he must build
clan support if the TFG was to survive.


5. (C) Minister for Women and Family Affairs Fauziya Mohammed
Sheikh (Digil & Mirifle/Elay),who had recently left
Mogadishu, complained about President Sharif's isolation,
even from members of his own government. "Only the Islamists"
and the Prime Minister see him, she said. (Note: by
"Islamists," Fauziya likely meant ARS members of the TFG.)
She had not met Sheikh Sharif since the TFG went to
Mogadishu, and she worried that the TFG was being "held
hostage by the Hawiye." As expected, she backed fellow clan
member, Deputy Prime Minister Sharif Hassan who, she said had
been the force behind the signing of the Price Waterhouse
Cooper agreement.

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Rumored Ouster of Interior Minister,
Minister of Information. Ouster of
Intelligence Chief Mohammed Sheikh
--------------


6. (C) Although rumors of an impending Cabinet re-shuffle
abound, the Prime Minister, Ambassador "Americo," and
Minister Sheikh did not believe that sweeping changes were in
the cards. "Americo" said that President Sharif had told
him, however, that he intended to remove Minister of Interior
Sheikh Abdiqadir Ali Omar (Hawiye/Saleebaan). Sharif thought
that Omar at a minimum had not been effective as Minister.
(Omar was Deputy Chairman of the ICU when it ousted the
warlords from Mogadishu in 2006, and it was believed that his
allegedly powerful personal militia had been his ticket to
the Interior Minister job. Many of his militia switched sides
during their first battle with al-Shabaab and Hisbul Islam in
Mogadishu, however. More recently, Omar's subordinates had
been linked to the July 14 kidnapping of two French
government employees in Mogadishu.)


7. (C) While "Americo" was in Mogadishu, President Sharif
helped arrange the departure for Cairo of Omar's second wife
and planned, in a few weeks, to have Omar follow him,
"Americo" said. "Americo" did not know who might replace
Omar if the plan were realized.


8. (C) In a July 31 conversation, Ambassador "Americo"
reported that a decision had also been made to remove
Minister of Information Farhan Ali Mohamud (Hawiye/Habr
Gedr/Duduble). Slated to replace Mohamud was current
Minister of Planning and International Cooperation Abdirahman
Abdishakur Warsame (Hawiye/Habr Gedr/Ayer). No explanation
was given for the alleged removal, but Mohamud had earlier
signalled to the Somalia Unit that he was considering
resigning, and Somalia Unit had little success in persuading
Mohamud to return to Mogadishu in order to work with the two
USG-hired consultants currently in place there. "Americo"
believed that Mohamud might be offered another position in
the TFG.


9. (C) Mohamud's replacement with Warsame, if it occurs,
would have the effect of removing a prominent member of the
original TFG that merged with the Alliance for the
Re-liberation of Somalia/Djibouti (ARS) wing at the end of

2008. Mohamud rarely spoke to the press, but was seen as
very effective when he did so. Some ascribed Mohamud's
infrequent contacts with the media to his Duduble clan roots,
arguing that a comparatively large number of Duduble are
allied with al-Shabaab, and that Mohamud did not want to
cross his sub-clan. (Note: When he spoke to the press,
however, Mohamud was generally harshly critical of
al-Shabaab.) Warsame comes from the ARS wing of the unity
government. Like Mohamud, he is a British citizen.


10. (C) Somalia Unit continued to push the TFG to allow
Intelligence Chief Mohammed Sheikh to remain in his job,
following a July 21 decision to scapegoat him for the July 14
kidnapping of two French intelligence officers in Mogadishu.
On July 30, the Prime Minister told us that Sheikh would
remain in the government, and Deputy Prime Minister Sharif
Hassan, who was present at the meeting, said he was
determined to have Sheikh re-instated. (Note: Sharif Hassan
has great influence with President Sharif, is Mohammed
Sheikh's patron, and is of the same major clan
(Digil/Mirifle) as Mohammed Sheikh.) A subsequent
conversation with Minister of National Security Abdullahi
"Sanbaloshi" seemed to suggest, however, that Sheikh remained
on track to become "Sanbaloshi's" deputy.

Friction with Other Ministers;
Some Tension with Prime Minister
Over Failure to Meet Puntland
President
--------------


11. (C) "Americo" described President Sharif as unhappy with
the amount of time that TFG ministers spent away from
Mogadishu. "Americo" thought that the President was somewhat
disenchanted with Deputy Prime Minister Sharif Hassan, who
returned to Mogadishu only August 2 after a long absence,
which included a trip to Malaysia to see his family.


12. (C) President Sharif's relations with Prime Minister
Sharmarke (Darood/Harti/Majertein/Osman Mahmoud) were also
frayed, "Americo" said. The current source of friction was

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the Prime Minister's reluctance to travel to Puntland for a
meeting with President "Faroole." (Note: "Americo" had met
with President "Faroole" in Dubai on the weekend of July 17
in order to prepare a Presidents Sharif - "Faroole" meeting.)
Minister of Posts and Telecommunications Abdirizak Osman
"Jurile," (Darood/Harti/Majertein/Dashishe) who comes from a
Puntland clan, like Sharmarke, told Somalia Unit that he
sensed that the Prime Minister's relations with President
"Faroole" had soured for some reason following their April 15
dinner that both "Faroole" and the Prime Minister told us at
the time went very well.


13. (C) President Sharif had attempted to force the Prime
Minister to travel to Puntland on the weekend of July 31, but
the Prime Minister claimed that President "Faroole" would
have returned from Dubai and Djibouti only the day before,
and that there in any event was not enough time to prepare
the meeting. When Somalia Unit saw the Prime Minister on
July 30, he claimed that he would travel to Puntland before
the Secretary's August 6 meeting with President Sharif, but
with the Prime Minister's return to Mogadishu on August 1, we
understand the meeting with "Faroole" was not likely to take
place. (Further complicating the prospect of a PM -
"Faroole" meeting, we understand was a recent letter from
Minister of Livestock Abukar Abdi Osman to the Government of
Saudi Arabia requesting that the Saudis allow the import from
Somalia only of livestock shipped from the port of Mogadishu.
Such a request would almost certainly complicate efforts by
the TFG to improve relations with "Faroole.")

Alleged Progress in Cooperation
with Ahlu Sunnah Wal Jama'a
--------------


14. (C) The Prime Minister reported July 30 that the TFG was
providing concrete support for Ahlu Sunnah Wal Jama'a (ASWJ)
in the central regions. A TFG-chartered plane carrying
weapons, ammunition, and medical supplies to ASWJ would fly
from Mogadishu to Guriel (Galgaduud Region) on July 31, from
where it was scheduled to transfer about fifteen wounded ASWJ
troops to Diredawa, Ethiopia, for treatment. He also claimed
that the TFG on two occasions had provided financial support
to ASWJ. Noting the large number of Somalis attempting to
solicit assistance for ASWJ, Sharmarke said that the TFG in
the end had established direct communications with ASWJ
military commanders and would provide assistance directly to
them. (Note: Somalia Unit has not yet confirmed that the
July 31 flight took place.)

Comment
--------------


15. (C) Although many of the TFG's overtures discussed above
remain in the planning stage, it is heartening to detect, at
last, an intention to more actively seek possible allies
among clans and in neighboring regions, as well as to shore
up the alliance with ASWJ. The removal of the Ministers of
Interior and Information, if it occurs, still falls far short
of the wholesale Cabinet re-shuffle that many believe is
needed, and that President Sharif himself forecast when he
made his appointments in March. Sacking the Minister of
Interior would at least remove one person who has been an
unequivocal negative for the struggling TFG, but much more
remains to be done, and the TFG continues to move too
tentatively to accomplish the enormous number of pressing
tasks that urgently confront it.
RANNEBERGER