SOMALIA - SOMALILAND DEMOCRACY AT CRITICAL JUNCTURE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 NAIROBI 001179

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

DEPT FOR AF/E

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER PREF KPAO SO
SUBJECT: SOMALIA - SOMALILAND DEMOCRACY AT CRITICAL JUNCTURE

Ref: Nairobi 1053


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Democracy in Somaliland is at a critical
juncture. After being delayed four times, presidential elections
are scheduled for September 27. However, negotiations are still
under way between the three political parties regarding a Code of
Conduct that attempts to level the playing field in the elections.
The National Electoral Commission (NEC) is not prepared to lead the
electoral process and remains the biggest obstacle to free and fair
elections. Embassy Nairobi strongly recommends a high-level visit
from the Africa Bureau in Washington to Hargeisa in the next one or
two weeks to meet with President Dahir "Riyale" Kahin, leaders of
the two opposition parties and the NEC face-to-face and strongly
condemn further delay, along with a press conference on site. If
travel to Hargeisa is not possible, Riyale should be asked to travel
to Nairobi, Addis or Djibouti to meet. Because Somaliland is a
bulwark of stability and development in Somalia and plays a crucial
role in the region, ensuring Somaliland's continued democratic
development should be a top U.S. policy priority for the Horn of
Africa. Doing all that we can to ensure free and fair elections are
held on September 27 is a major step in this process. END SUMMARY.

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Mediation Process Stalled
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2. (SBU) After weeks of escalating tension and negotiation (reftel),
Somaliland President Riyale's party (UDUB),the two opposition
parties (UCID and Kulmiye),and the NEC signed an agreement document
on May 27. It confirms that presidential elections will take place
on September 27, 2009. The document also calls for the
strengthening of the National Electoral Commission (NEC),for the
three political parties and the NEC to sign a Code of Conduct aimed
at leveling the election playing field, and acknowledges agreement
on certain key issues such as the voter registration process and
equal media access and air time for the three political parties
leading up to the election. Our contacts tell us that Riyale balked
at signing a prior agreement because of a specific clause that
prohibits an extension of the presidential mandate if the elections
do not take place on time, although the leaders of all three
political parties (including Riyale) publicly stated their
acceptance of the terms. The clause regarding the presidential
mandate was ultimately removed from the May 27 document, which was
signed by UDUB Secretary-General Jama Yassin Farah for Riyale's
party and by the Deputy Chairman and Secretary-General of UCID and
Kulmiye, respectively.


3. (SBU) Negotiations over the Code of Conduct began on May 28 and
are on-going. The Democracy Steering Committee, a group of
Nairobi-based donors, is asking that the three political parties
sign the document by June 21 to provide sufficient assurances that
the major political actors in Somaliland are serious about moving
forward with the September election. Donors chose June 21 because
experts estimate it will take approximately 14 weeks to get the
technical aspects of the election in order. However, as of June 10,
the parties are still negotiating certain provisions in the Code,
and it does not look like the June 21 deadline will be met.
According to Interpeace (our NGO partner who has the lead on
supporting the voter registration and electoral process),UDUB is
not willing to accept two elements that donors are insisting be
included in the document: strengthening the NEC and creating an
arbitration mechanism to enforce the Code of Conduct.

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The NEC: The Biggest Obstacle
To Free and Fair Elections
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4. (SBU) The NEC currently has seven members. Riyale directly
appointed three of these members and greatly influenced the
selection of the upper house of Parliament's, or the House of Elders
(Guurti),two nominees. The opposition parties appointed the other
two members. According to Interpeace, the chairman of the NEC--a
Riyale appointee--is currently in Lebanon on a technical assessment
mission, leaving the NEC leaderless, and the majority of the members
of the NEC are "at odds with each other and not prepared to lead an
electoral process."


5. (SBU) The opposition parties, and Interpeace in private
conversations, are calling for the NEC to be expanded by four
members. The May 27 agreement also calls for the NEC to be

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"strengthened." Experts in Nairobi say this could easily be done by
voting in additional members by consensus, which would add
competent, well-respected leaders to the NEC who could move the
process forward. However, UDUB is against this expansion and says
it is too late to consider altering the NEC. Riyale, who wields
significant influence within the NEC, has done nothing to strengthen
the body. It is widely believed among Somaliland donors in Nairobi
that unless the NEC is strengthened, free and fair elections will be
nearly impossible. In a June 5 conversation, a representative from
Interpeace told the Somalia Unit that, "Interpeace will not
participate in the electoral process unless the NEC is made
competent."

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Creating an Arbitration Mechanism
To Enforce the Code of Conduct
--------------


6. (SBU) The draft Code of Conduct currently talks of establishing a
nine person Election Board of Monitors, a three person Arbitration
Panel and an international guarantor. According to DFID colleagues
in Nairobi, Kulmiye is seeking a single enforcement mechanism that
comprises three members of each party plus two international
members. UCID is open to suggestions. UDUB sees no need for
additional structures and feels that the existing 15 member Election
Monitoring Board, appointed by the NEC--but whose mandate appears to
have run out--should be reconstituted and should be the body that
enforces the Code of Conduct. Interpeace and the Somalia Unit agree
that a stronger NEC would be able to facilitate a compromise on this
issue.

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Somaliland's Critical Role in Somalia
And in the Region
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7. (SBU) Somaliland is a comparative bulwark of democracy and
development in contrast to the remainder of Somalia. Somaliland
transitioned to multi-party democracy in 2002 and has held
relatively free and free elections since. Somaliland has been
successful in preventing pirates from running operations from its
territory--unlike Puntland, its neighbor to the east--and in
preventing designated Foreign Terrorist Organization al-Shabaab from
gaining a foothold in the region. Djibouti, which borders
Somaliland to the north-west, heavily relies on Somaliland as a
buffer to the instability and violence that characterizes much of
the rest of Somalia. Ethiopia also maintains strong relations with
Somaliland because of security concerns, but also to maintain access
to the port town of Berbera on Somaliland's northern coast. Because
of all this, ensuring Somaliland's stability and continued
democratic development should be a U.S. policy priority for the Horn
of Africa. Doing all that we can to ensure free and fair elections
are held on September 27 is a major step in this process.

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Moving Forward
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8. (SBU) Donors in Nairobi have agreed to collectively lobby Riyale
in an attempt to keep the elections on track. On June 21, former
Special Envoy for Somalia John Yates called Riyale and insisted
there could be no more delays, and on May 25 the European Union (EU)
Special Envoy for Somalia reinforced Ambassador Yates' message to
Riyale in a telephone call (reftel). Donors have also sent a letter
to the NEC and all three parties listing pre-conditions for
re-engagement on the elections, including a binding agreement on
September 27, fair and equitable use of state resources, endorsement
of the final voter registration list, and a Code of Conduct with an
enforcement mechanism. Following the delivery of the letter in May,
donor representatives, including delegations from the EU and United
Kingdom, traveled to Hargeisa to further press on the elections
issue. (Note: Representatives from the Somalia Unit are unable to
travel to Hargeisa because of Department restrictions on traveling
to Somalia. End Note.) However, the mediation process to achieve
these conditions has made little progress.


9. (SBU) As a next step, Embassy Nairobi strongly recommends a
high-level visit from the Africa Bureau in Washington to Hargeisa in
the next one or two weeks to meet with Riyale, leaders of the two
opposition parties and the NEC face-to-face and strongly condemn
further delay. If travel to Hargeisa is not possible, Riyale should

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be asked to travel to Nairobi, Addis or Djibouti. We would
emphasize that increased development and counter-terrorism
assistance to Somaliland would only start after a free, fair, and
transparent electoral process. We would perform a significant
public diplomacy effort around this visit to maximize its impact,
both with the Somaliland audience as well as the remainder of
Somalia.


10. (SBU) Riyale regularly holds closed-door meetings with
international diplomats and then "spins" these meetings to his
domestic audience as attempts at advancing the cause for
Somaliland's recognition. For this reason, the Somalia Unit also
recommends a press conference in Hargeisa to maximize media coverage
of our message and to ensure that our message is not diluted or
twisted. Embassy Nairobi plans to begin a media campaign aimed at
getting out the USG message on the scheduled September 27 election
in Somaliland. We plan to gradually escalate the frequency of the
interviews as the September election date gets closer.

RANNEBERGER