Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09NAIROBI107
2009-01-16 15:48:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Nairobi
Cable title:  

SOMALIA - Precarious Calm in Mogadishu Following Ethiopian

Tags:  PGOV PREL PINR SO 
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INFO RUCNSOM/SOMALIA COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHMV/AMEMBASSY MONROVIA 0346
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 NAIROBI 000107 

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

DEPT FOR AF/E AND A/S Frazer

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR SO
SUBJECT: SOMALIA - Precarious Calm in Mogadishu Following Ethiopian
Withdrawal

REF: 08 Nairobi 2755

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 NAIROBI 000107

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

DEPT FOR AF/E AND A/S Frazer

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR SO
SUBJECT: SOMALIA - Precarious Calm in Mogadishu Following Ethiopian
Withdrawal

REF: 08 Nairobi 2755


1. (SBU) SUMMARY. Following the eagerly awaited withdrawal by
Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) from Mogadishu, to date,
there has been no intense fighting in Mogadishu by al-Shabaab or
among rival armed groups. The calm is attributable to Mogadishu's
complex clan dynamic, public pressure, and intense lobbying by
elders, religious leaders, and Alliance for the Re-liberation of
Somalia (ARS) and Transitional Federal Government (TFG) officials to
prevent various armed groups from renewing conflict. TFG militia
moved to occupy one abandoned ENDF position, while various armed
factions directly or loosely allied with Sheikh Sharif's (ARS-D) and
Hassan Dahir Aweys' Asmara (ARS-A) factions immediately occupied the
others, promising to maintain security and calling the displaced to
return to their homes.


2. (SBU) Summary Cont'd. Militias of the two ARS factions are
patrolling separate neighborhoods, but reportedly crossing paths
without violence. With one exception in Mogadishu's Karaan
district, neither faction has attacked the TFG. On January 13 and
14 residents poured into the streets to celebrate Ethiopia's
withdrawal. The TFG and ARS jointly organized a farewell ceremony
for ENDF commanders at Prime Minister Nur Hassan Hussein's office.
There is free movement of people and traffic throughout the city.
On January 16, approximately 3,000 people assembled for a prayer
service in Mogadishu stadium calling for an end to violence.
Control in many areas is falling along the same clan lines that
existed prior to the Ethiopian presence. All agreed that
international support is necessary to "reward" the calm and to
maintain Mogadishu's precarious peace. End Summary.

All Celebrate ENDF Withdrawal
--------------


3. (SBU) Between January 13 and 14, ENDF completed its withdrawal
from Mogadishu. Residents of northern Mogadishu poured into the
streets to celebrate an Ethiopian departure that few believed would
occur. Although ENDF promised that it would inform the TFG-ARS
Joint Security Committee (JSC) of its timetable, early morning on
January 13 ENDF forces reportedly vacated some key positions in
Huriwaa and Yaqshid neighborhoods in northern Mogadishu unannounced.
Also on January 13, Prime Minister Nur Hassan Hussein "Nur Adde"

held a farewell and recognition ceremony for ENDF at his Mogadishu
office. The ceremony was jointly organized by the ARS and the TFG
and was attended by high-level TFG, ARS, ENDF and AMISOM
representatives. Prime Minister Hussein welcomed ENDF withdrawal,
terming it an "historical" moment for Somalia and cautioning against
Somalia reverting into the path of bloodshed.


4. (SBU) At the ceremony, Hassan Siyaad "Qorgab", ARS representative
and Deputy Chairman of the JSC also welcomed ENDF withdrawal from
Mogadishu. In an apparent reference to the Djibouti Process, Siyaad
said Ethiopia entered Somalia when the country was divided and ENDF
is now leaving when it is united. He also expressed appreciation to
the international community for its support and urged Somalis to
welcome ENDF withdrawal by allowing the forces an honorable and
smooth exit. ENDF force commander Gabre Yohannes Abate stated that
the Ethiopian government intervened to support the Somali people and
will continue to support them. Yohannes stated that ENDF is
withdrawing on the basis of the Djibouti Agreement. Finally, the
AMISOM Deputy Commander emphasized that there is no more excuse to
shed more blood in Somalia now that former President Yusuf resigned
and Ethiopian forces are leaving the country.

Mogadishu Calm in Wake
Of ENDF Withdrawal
--------------


5. (SBU) With the exception of Digfer Hospital, which the TFG
immediately occupied, armed militias identifying themselves as Union
of Islamic Courts (UIC) immediately occupied all other positions the
ENDF vacated. These UIC militias were generally allied Sheikh
Sharif's ARS-D faction or Aweys' ARS-A faction. Contrary to some
reports, these militias are not all "anti-government groups." With
one exception of a clash between an ARS militia commander and TFG
police in Karaan, neither ARS faction has attacked the TFG. The
militias have not engaged in any armed confrontation between the
various factions.


NAIROBI 00000107 002 OF 003



6. (SBU) In preparation for the ENDF withdrawal, clan elders,
religious leaders, and representatives from both the TFG and the ARS
reportedly intensely lobbied the various armed factions in Mogadishu
to avoid violence following the ENDF withdrawal. In one example of
Mogadishu residents publicly supporting peace, a group Hawiye/Haber
Gedir women's leaders met on January 14 to promote the message that
with Abdullahi Yusuf and Ethiopia gone, there is no more excuse for
fighting. Somali radio call-in radio shows have centered on
prospects for violence if and when ENDF left the country. Major
media outlets have encouraged peace.


7. (SBU) On January 16, approximately 3,000 people assembled for a
prayer service in Mogadishu stadium organized by a group calling
itself "Peace and Mediation Clerics." All parties mixed freely and
religious elders called for an end to violence. The Islamic Courts
Union (ARS-A and ARS-D) are reportedly jointly providing security
for the event. (Comment: This cooperation between the ARS factions
does not necessarily indicate reconciliation. All our interlocutors
told us this arrangement is only temporary, and relations among the
groups could rapidly deteriorate in the coming days.)

Public Calls for Reconciliation
--------------


8. (SBU) With ENDF withdrawal, alliances in Mogadishu have shifted
while groups are attempting to mend fractured relations. Sheikh
Abdirahim Isse Adow, the prayer meeting's primary organizer, spoke
on behalf of "the Courts," and called for all Somalis to forgive the
TFG for its alliance with Ethiopia. Adow was responding to an
announcement by the Banadir administration that it would assist all
IDPs to return to their homes. In another example of new-found
tolerance, Sheikh Yusuf Mohamed Siyad "Indha Adde," a warlord and
UIC defense secretary allied to Aweys's ARS-A, addressed Mogadishu
residents at the Pasta Factory, a former ENDF stronghold. Sheikh
Abdikadir Ali Omar, Sheikh Sharif's deputy under the former UIC and
an influential commander of an ARS-D allied militia, publicly
addressed the same gathering just minutes later. With ENDF
withdrawal, there is little public support for continued violence by
al-Shabaab, Ras Kambooni Brigade and other armed extremists in
Mogadishu. These groups, made up mostly of non-Hawiye, are
perceived as "foreigners" to Hawiye-dominated Mogadishu.

Fighting Could Quickly Resume
--------------


9. (SBU) Despite this apparent detente, those like Indha Adde are
unlikely to remain peaceful for long. Though reportedly unpopular
in Mogadishu, Aweys was purportedly seen in the capital, armed with
a rifle and dressed in military fatigues. Also calling himself a
representative of "the Courts," Indha Adde remains opposed to the
TFG, the ARS-D faction, and the Djibouti Process. While some
al-Shabaab are surely in Mogadishu, the group is not on the
offensive. On January 14, al-Shabaab leader and spokesman Mukhtar
Robow announced that with Ethiopian withdrawal, al-Shabaab will turn
its guns against AMISOM until it also leaves Somalia.

Control Falling Along Clan Lines
--------------


10. (SBU) According to our interlocutors in Mogadishu, with the
Ethiopians gone, clans are reasserting control over their
traditional neighborhoods. Both Qeybdiid and Salat Ali Jelle, TFG
Deputy Minister of Defense, explained that militia loyal to ARS-A
and ARS-D have positioned themselves in areas previously controlled
by their sub-clans under the former UIC. Habr Gedir/Ayr militias
under Ethiopian nemesis Indha Adde have re-taken neighborhoods
between the Livestock Market and Mogadishu Stadium. Similarly, Habr
Gedir/Salaeebaan militias allied to Sheikh Sharif have re-claimed
the Wardhigley and northern stretches of Howl Wadaag neighborhoods.
A Hawiye/Duduble sub-clan militia, led by Djibouti-based trader and
Al-Barakat company chairman Ahmed Nur Ali Jumale, controls Bakara
Market and its environs, strengthening his strategic interest in the
business sector. Hawiye/Abgal Sheikh Abdirahim Isse Adow, Sheikh
Sharif's spokesman, is in southeast Mogadishu's predominantly Abgaal
neighborhoods of Karaan and Abdi-Aziz.


11. (SBU) According to TFG Police Commissioner Abdi Hassan Awale
"Qeybdiid", his and other TFG-allied Abgaal, Morasade and Habr
Gedir/Sa'ad militias control a swath of downtown Mogadishu from

NAIROBI 00000107 003 OF 003


Hodan district to the waterfront neighborhoods of Waberi, Hamar
Jab-Jab, Hamar-Weye, Shingani, and Abdi-Aziz, including areas around
the presidency and all five AMISOM bases. Qeybdiid told us that the
situation remains stable because Hawiye clan elders and clerics have
discouraged Indha Adde and his ilk from fomenting violence. But
Qeybdiid warned that the situation could change quickly. Abdirahman
Dhagahtur, Banadir governor and Mogadishu mayor, lamented to us that
AMISOM declined their request to deploy forces to areas vacated by
ENDF, citing personnel constraints. He appealed for urgent
deployment of additional international troops or other security
assistance to maintain the current calm and ensure violence doesn't
resume.

RANNEBERGER