SOMALIA - LULL IN MOGADISHU AS BOTH SIDES TAKE STOCK

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI 001034

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/E AND A/S CARSON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/20/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL EAID PINS SO
SUBJECT: SOMALIA - LULL IN MOGADISHU AS BOTH SIDES TAKE STOCK

Classified By: Ambassador Michael Ranneberger for reason
1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (S) Summary: While Mogadishu has experienced a week-long
lull in fighting, nearby towns Jowhar and Mahaday fell to
Islamists on May 17. TFG officials tell us they've
stabilized Mogadishu, and are preparing to re-take lost
territory in the capital as well as Jowhar, though they have
not told us when. Ethiopia has reportedly taken up positions
near Beled Weyne, perhaps to prevent an Islamist incursion
into the area. IGAD ministers on May 20 called for UN
sanctions on Eritrea and asked for a UN-enforced blockade on
Islamist controlled Somali air and sea ports. On May 21
Kenyan officials detained a Kenyan-based Aweys associate
attempting to fly from Nairobi to Somalia on an Eritrean
passport. Transitional Federal Government officials continue
to appear regularly in the media, to show the government is
still functioning and to condemn Islamic extremists and their
foreign associates. End Summary


2. (S) In Mogadishu a stalemate exists between Transitional
Federal Government troops and their former Courts allies and
Islamic extremists al-Shabaab and Hizbul Islami. The two
sides have not fought since May 14, though sporadic mortar
exchanges persist. TFG forces continue to hold nine of
Mogadishu's 16 districts, as well as parts of the Yaqshid,
Wardhigley, Howl-Wadag and Hodan districts. The TFG has not,
however mounted serious attempts to re-take lost ground. TFG
officials and others tell us the government is recruiting
allies, organizing and stockpiling for a counter attack in
the near future. They have also reportedly opened
negotiations with the anti-extremist Al Sunna Wal Jamma
organization on how to coordinate against their mutual enemy
al-Shabaab. Al Sunna Wal Jamma has been especially
successful against al Shabaab in the Galguduud area.


3. (SBU) On May 17, Islamists captured Jowhar after
TFG-allied militias abandoned the town with little
resistance. Al-Shabaab raided A UNICEF office and warehouse
in Jowhar, stealing food meant for the area's severly
malnourished. UNICEF reports the office's closure puts over
85,000 children at risk. Islamists also moved into the
nearby town of Mahaday, significant only as President Sheikh
Sharif Sheikh Ahmed's birthplace. On May 20 Security
Minister Omar Hashi told us the TFG intended to take the town
back; he reported that TFG-allied militia on May 20 had
launched a hit and run attack in Jowhar that had netted one
technical and two al-Shabaab dead.


4. (SBU) Though the Ethiopian government has denied it to
the media, rumors persist that on May 18 Ethiopian troops
took up strong defensive positions along a strategically
important road roughly 20 kilometers inside the Somali
border, near Beled Weyne. Beled Weyne is nominally under
control of TFG-allied militias. Our contacts speculate
Ethiopia may be forming a blocking position to prevent an
expected Islamist push into the area. Early the week of May
18, TFG officials told us they believed Mukhtar Rowbow had
left Mogadihsu after dispatching some of his fighters toward
Beled Weyne.


5. (U) In Addis Ababa, on May 20 an Intergovernmental
Authority on Development (IGAD) extraordinary ministerial was
held to discuss Somalia. IGAD ministers issued a strong
communique on May 21. The communique, to be reported septel
from Embassy Addis Ababa, called for the UN Security Council
to impose sanctions on Eritrea for financially and materially
supporting al-Shabaab and encouraging the TFG's overthrow.
The communique also included a call for an UN-led air and sea
blockade of Islamist-controlled areas.


6. (SBU) According to AMISOM officials, on May 21, Kenyan
immigration officers reportedly detained Abdi Tahir, a Hassan
Dahir Aweys associate and Hawiye/Haber Gedir/Ayr clan leader.
Tahir was reportedly attempting to board a plane to
Mogadishu, traveling on an Eritrean passport when he was
stopped. Post in the past has had unproductive meetings
Tahir to gain insights into Aweys' political intentions.
Tahir lives outside Nairobi, though we do not know his
citizenship. He could be held for up to 48 hours, we're told.


7. (U) TFG officials continue to make public appearances,
and to denounce Islamists in the media. Over the past week

NAIROBI 00001034 002.2 OF 002


President Sharif has allowed press coverage of government
meetings to show the TFG was still functioning. On May 19
he delivered a public peace and reconciliation message to
recently released prisoners jailed for Islamist ties under
former president Yusuf. Since the start of recent violence
in Mogadishu, Information Minister Farhan Ali Mohamed has
conducted many media interviews and on May 20 he issued a
press release criticizing al-Shabaab, highlighting foreign
fighters and noting that a large May 19 explosion in
Mogadishu was caused by Islamists preparing explosives rather
than a TFG or AMISOM operation (NOTE: As part of our ongoing
support for the TFG,s information efforts, Post drafted this
press release. The Minister of Information added some
information but left the substance of our suggested text.
End note.)
RANNEBERGER