TOKYO'S INDECISION FUELS OKINAWAN RALLY

C O N F I D E N T I A L NAHA 000077


DEPT FOR EAP/J
NSC FOR RUSSEL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/12/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR MOPS JA
SUBJECT: TOKYO'S INDECISION FUELS OKINAWAN RALLY

REF: NAHA 67

CLASSIFIED BY: Raymond Greene, Consul General, U.S. Consulate
General Naha.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: The November 8 rally to oppose the Futenma
Relocation Facility (FRF) was directed as much at Tokyo's
inability to take a clear policy position on Okinawa as it was
on the merits of the realignment plan. Beyond the normal
politics of Futenma relocation, the rally showcased growing
local fears that Okinawa's "special status" will be undermined
by the new regime in Tokyo. Another subtext to the rally was
maneuvering among local political figures for leadership in the
post-LDP era. Despite an LDP boycott, conservatives were drawn
to the rally in a bid to undercut efforts by People New Party
(PNP) Policy Chief Mikio Shimoji to assert local leadership of
the emerging new political order. Political gamesmanship
notwithstanding, contacts express concern that expectations set
by the Prime Minister for major changing in U.S. basing on the
island could lead to a backlash against political moderates if
left unfulfilled. END SUMMARY.

NOT JUST THE USUAL SUSPECTS


2. (SBU) While national media and the Hatoyama administration
are citing 21,000 participants in the November 9 anti-FRF rally,
Consulate police contacts estimate that turnout was closer to
6,000-10,000. This was far short of the recent political
rallies staged in Okinawa, such as the 2007 protest against
changes the Japanese Government was making to school textbook
references to the role the Japanese military played in mass
suicides in WWII, but long time observers of Okinawan politics
say that the level of participation was significant for a
comparatively rushed event that lacked a central focus or "clear
cut enemy." Given the strength of the communist and socialist
parties in Okinawa, the event drew the expected participants,
including elderly who use local communist hospitals and clinics
and anti-base activists. However, there were also a large
number of families with children with no clear political ties.

TARGETTED OPPORTUNITY TO BLOCK SHIMOJI


3. (C) Despite being boycotted by Governor Nakaima and the local
LDP party, the event drew a number of leading conservatives.
Local media and even some contacts in the Okinawa Prefectural
Government (OPG) have interpreted conservative Naha mayor
Takeshi Onaga's participation as a possible sign of growing
bipartisan opposition to relocating MCAS Futenma within the
prefecture. However, contacts close to the event organizers
account for his participation differently. They argue that
Onaga, perhaps with the blessing of Governor Nakaima, took on
the organization role specifically to counter the influence of
PNP (formerly LDP) Lower House member Mikio Shimoji. They
explain that Shimoji, with his personal ties to the local
construction industry, has used his party's position in the
coalition to cast himself as the politicians who can deliver for
the prefecture's business interests with the new government.
Onaga, by taking a high-profile role as one of the four
organizers of Sunday's rally, eclipsed Shimoji as the major
conservative force at the rally. Shimoji's attempts to carve
out a leadership role for himself have been set back by his
advocacy for merging MCAS Futenma and Kadena Air Base. Incensed
at his recent efforts, rally participants heckled him
relentlessly as he attempted to address the crowd.

FEAR OF TOKYO DRIVES EVENT BUT MESSAGE MUTED BY DPJ'S PRESENCE


4. (C) National media focused on the messages directed at U.S.
officials and the strong criticism levied at Governors Nakaima
and Matsuzawa who issued strong statements from their Washington
tour endorsing the FRF. However, participants in the rally
pointed out that many of the speeches were directed at Prime
Minister Hatoyama. Contacts close to the organizers also note
that the timing of the event was motivated by growing fear that
the new DPJ government may be poised to change Tokyo's
relationship with Okinawa as much as it was the upcoming
Presidential summit. They explain that the DPJ government's
inability to formulate a coherent policy towards Okinawa,
despite ambitious promises during the campaign, may indicate
that Tokyo no longer views Okinawa as a special case (with the
attendant levels of economic support) and could start treating
Okinawa as "one of any of the 47 prefectures." Overt criticism
of the new government in Tokyo, however, was tempered by the
fact that DPJ was one of the four event organizers.


5. (C) Tactical maneuvering notwithstanding, Consulate contacts
across the political spectrum caution that the relatively high
turnout at the rally could presage a return of anti-base
activism that has laid dormant for much of the past decade.
Moderate DPJ Diet member Denny Tamaki, for example, warned the
Consul General that the anti-base left has been in retreat for
the past 10 years, replaced by pragmatic moderates willing to
engage on base issues in a non-ideological way. Tamaki said
that the Prime Minister's rhetoric about major changes to basing
relations in Okinawa has greatly raised expectations. "He talks
as if this was just like reversion in 1972," Tamaki added, "and
if he doesn't deliver there will be a major backlash that will
only benefit the far left."

COMMENT: POLITICS IN FLUX


6. (C) The political jockeying that marked the November 8 rally
is symptomatic of the fluidity of Okinawan politics in the wake
of the change of government in Tokyo. Both conservatives and
DPJ moderates are jockeying to fill the role long played by the
local LDP as the manager of the prefecture's relationship with
Tokyo. However, the deeper concern is that there may be no
"special relationship" to manage under the new government.
Moderates worry that Prime Minister Hatoyama's sweeping promises
about major changes in U.S. basing arrangements is empty
rhetoric, which will inevitably lead to disappointment and a
backlash against Tokyo's efforts to defend base presence. There
is wider concern about DPJ promises to "delink" bases from
economic support, while simultaneously slashing "wasteful"
public works projects that Okinawa has relied upon for so long.
The sum of these fears is that Okinawa could end up as "just
another one of the 47 prefectures" with little prospect for
economic development or a reduction in the footprint of U.S.
bases.


RGREENE