Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09NAHA63
2009-09-09 02:05:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Consulate Naha
Cable title:  

POST-ELECTION MANEUVERING IN OKINAWA OVER FRF

Tags:  PREL PGOV MARR MOPS JA 
pdf how-to read a cable
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FM AMCONSUL NAHA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1118
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO IMMEDIATE 1104
INFO RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUALBCC/YOKOTA AB HQ USFJ
RHMFISS/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RHMFISS/COMMARCORBASESJAPAN CAMP BUTLER JA
RHMFISS/18WG KADENA AB JA
RHMFISS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC
RUEHNH/AMCONSUL NAHA 1187
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NAHA 000063 

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EAP - FO/J
SECDEF FOR OSD/APSA - GREGSON/MITCHELL/SCHIFFER/HILL/HAMM
PACOM FOR J00/J01/J5
USFJ FOR J00/J01/J5

E.O. 12958: DECL: 9/8/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR MOPS JA
SUBJECT: POST-ELECTION MANEUVERING IN OKINAWA OVER FRF

REF: A. TOKYO 2000

B. TOKYO 1987

CLASSIFIED BY: Raymond F. Greene, Consul General .
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NAHA 000063

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EAP - FO/J
SECDEF FOR OSD/APSA - GREGSON/MITCHELL/SCHIFFER/HILL/HAMM
PACOM FOR J00/J01/J5
USFJ FOR J00/J01/J5

E.O. 12958: DECL: 9/8/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR MOPS JA
SUBJECT: POST-ELECTION MANEUVERING IN OKINAWA OVER FRF

REF: A. TOKYO 2000

B. TOKYO 1987

CLASSIFIED BY: Raymond F. Greene, Consul General .
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)

1. (C) SUMMARY: Okinawa's newly elected Diet delegation,
encouraged by the local media, is seeking to present a united
front in calling for the new government to revise the 2006
agreement to relocate MCAS Futenma to Camp Schwab. While the
local chapters of the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ),People's
New Party (PNP) and Social Democratic Party (SDP) agree that
they oppose the existing plan, their views diverge widely on how
to fix it. This disunity is likely to make it extremely
difficult for the DPJ-led Cabinet to formulate an alternative to
the current realignment package. The Governor and local
Ministry of Defense leadership are more concerned that the
incoming Hatoyama administration will pause the Environmental
Impact Assessment (EIA) process for the Futenma Replacement
Facility (FRF) in order to avoid rifts within the coalition.
Given the tight election calendar in 2010, a delay in processing
the landfill permit could add significant political risk to the
relocation program. The Okinawa Governor has expressed hope
that the U.S. side will put early pressure on the new government
to keep to the original timeline so that he can receive the FRF
landfill permit request well before the next gubernatorial
election. END SUMMARY.

OKINAWA'S DIET MEMBERS REACT TO MEDIA BARRAGE
--------------


2. (C) Okinawa's local dailies (which have a virtual monopoly on
the print media in this prefecture) have predictably waged a
vigorous campaign on Okinawa's Diet delegation in the wake of
last week's Lower House election, calling on them to view their
victory as a mandate to re-open negotiations on our 2006
realignment agreement. The papers have reminded them and the
public that DPJ leader Yukio Hatoyama campaigned in Okinawa on a
pledge to respect their views on plans to relocate FRF. While
the FRF was not a central issue in any of Okinawa's races,

incumbent Upper House member/DPJ Okinawa Chapter President
Shoukichi Kina responded quickly to this pressure, calling on
Governor Hirokazu Nakaima on September 1 to seek his
"cooperation" on FRF, and announcing over the weekend that
Okinawa's DPJ-PNP-SDP and independent Diet members had formed a
new cross-party faction (the "Urunokai") to lobby their
respective parties to review the bilateral realignment
agreements. (Note: Securing the Governor's cooperation is key,
because the DPJ included in its campaign rhetoric on the FRF a
condition that renegotiations would be at the request of
Okinawa. As long as Nakaima remains committed to the existing
plan, the DPJ can absolve itself of its pre-election promises.
End Note.)

IN REALITY, NEW "URUNOKAI" DEEPLY DIVIDED OVER FRF
-------------- --------------


3. (C) While the Okinawa media are emphasizing the solidarity of
Okinawa's Diet members, the Consulate's political contacts say
that Okinawa's normally byzantine political landscape has become
more dynamic since Sunday's election as leading local DPJ, PNP,
and SDP seek to fill the local power vacuum left by the LDP's
defeat. These fissures have been particularly evident over the
future of the FRF. The leader of Okinawa's local PNP chapter,
Hiroshi Goya, commented to the Consulate on September 8 that
despite the public show of unity, Okinawa's new Urunokai failed
to reach consensus on the central question of whether MCAS
Futenma should be relocated within Okinawa or outside it. The
SDP is the only coalition party unambiguously and ideologically
opposed to keeping the FRF in Okinawa, with the Okinawa's
DPJ/PNP Diet members split into three rival camps:

-- "CLEAN" DPJ OKINAWA MEMBERS OPPOSED TO FRF: The first camp
is led by DPJ Okinawa President Kina, who has led local calls to
relocate MCAS Futenma out of Okinawa. Interestingly, Chobin
Zukeran, the newly-elected representative for Okinawa District 4
who has allied with Kina on this issue, told the Consul General
September 6 that their position is not driven by ideological
opposition to a U.S. military presence, but by fears that FRF
construction "largess" would tarnish DPJ's clean image. While
aligned with the SDP on the outcome, Zukeran expressed firm
opposition to the SDP's efforts to limit the Hatoyama Cabinet's
flexibility by including the FRF in the coalition agreement.

-- REMAINING DPJ MEMBERS PRAGMATIC: Longstanding inter-party
rivalries are preventing Kina from unifying Okinawa's relatively

NAHA 00000063 002 OF 003


young DPJ contingent under his leadership. Notably,
newly-elected Lower House member Denny Tamaki, who represents
the northern Okinawan district that would host the FRF, refused
to join Kina's post-election call on Governor Nakaima. Tamaki
may also be responding to a key constituency that supports a
continued U.S. base presence: Okinawa's base worker labor union
(zenchuro) was a key factor in his victory. Tamaki also
reportedly enjoys close ties to the prefecture's relatively
powerful PNP camp.

-- PRO-BUSINESS PNP OKINAWA SUPPORTS RELOCATION WITHIN THE
PREFECTURE: Former LDP Diet member Mikio Shimoji was returned
for a fourth-term as a PNP representative in this election;
while Shimoji has joined Kina in publicly rejecting relocating
MCAS Futenma at Camp Schwab, PNP Okinawa Chapter President Goya
told ConGen Naha September 8 that Shimoji still favors
relocating MCAS Futenma within Okinawa prefecture given how
critical FRF construction contracts will be to Okinawa's
economy. Shimoji is aligned with DPJ Vice President Seiji
Maehara's conservative group in seeking a "pragmatic" approach
to renegotiating the realignment package.

GOVERNOR NAKAIMA WARNS OF CONSEQUENCES OF INACTION
-------------- --------------


4. (C) Most observers believe that DPJ Okinawa and its allies
will be unable to bridge their differences on FRF and are
looking to Tokyo for direction. RENGO Union Federation Okinawa
President Nobumasu Nakamura, for example, predicts the FRF will
remain a divisive issue among coalition leaders in Okinawa. He
explained to ConGen Naha poloffs on the eve of the election that
Okinawa's labor movement has never been able to put the FRF to a
vote. Unlike SOFA revision, which has strong and universal
political appeal, Okinawa's unions are divided on the FRF, with
the base workers' union increasingly supportive of keeping the
FRF within the prefecture.


5. (C) Given these rifts, supporters of the realignment plan
are worried less about the DPJ renegotiating the plan than local
DPJ and PNP efforts to kick the issue down the road by placing a
"freeze" on the FRF EIA in order to review of all FY10 budget
submissions related to Okinawa. Okinawa Defense Bureau Director
General Ro Manabe told the Consul General that efforts by
Washington and Tokyo over the past year have convinced most
Okinawans that realignment implementation efforts have turned an
important corner. Losing this momentum, he added, is the
biggest political risk factor facing the realignment package.
Governor Nakaima expressed similar concerns during a September 4
meeting with the incoming Consul General. Privately, the
Governor's senior advisors have been even franker, warning in
separate meetings this past week that if we lose the momentum
that we currently have on the FRF's environmental impact
assessment now it may not be easily recovered given that Okinawa
will holds its gubernatorial election in November 2010.


6. (C) Both Governor Nakaima and ODB DG Manabe urged the U.S.
side to seek early assurances from the incoming government that
it will not delay the EIA process. Governor Nakaima suggested
that Secretary of Defense Gates' reported October visit would be
a good opportunity for the DPJ government to walk back its
rhetoric on the FRF. The Governor pledged to do his part to
complete the EIA and landfill process by next summer, but said
that he is powerless if the incoming DPJ decides to suspend the
process.

COMMENT
--------------


7. (C) Disunity within the incoming coalition and continued
support from the Governor for the existing plan will limit the
incoming administration's ability to articulate an alternative
proposal on the FRF. Nevertheless, inserting a damaging delay
into the implementation process in order to hear out all of the
different voices may be tempting. A strong, early signal from
the U.S. side on the importance of maintaining the EIA/landfill
timeline will be helpful in keeping the process on track.
Japanese officials are already planning to hold a Cabinet-level
Okinawa Consultative Committee (OCC) meeting as early as October
on the assumption that the DPJ does not freeze the program.
Ideally, this would provide an important opportunity for the
Governor to convey Okinawa's support for the existing plan to
the new government, providing the Hatoyama Cabinet with a

NAHA 00000063 003 OF 003


face-saving way out of its campaign promises to the Okinawan
public.
GREENE