BAVARIAN CSU FLIRTS WITH BECOMING A CONSERVATIVE GREEN

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MUNICH 000090

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STATE FOR OES/ENV
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SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ECON PGOV EAGR ETRD TBIO GM
SUBJECT: BAVARIAN CSU FLIRTS WITH BECOMING A CONSERVATIVE GREEN
PARTY

REF: BERLIN 447

SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED. PLEASE PROTECT ACCORDINGLY.

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SUMMARY
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1. In his first election test as leader of Bavaria's Christian
Social Union (CSU) and in a bid to win back the CSU base or to
attract new voters, Minister President Horst Seehofer has reversed
earlier positions and come out strictly opposed to genetically
engineered organisms. Although he is now accused of populist
opportunism for jumping late on the band wagon, he hopes this will
improve CSU chances in the elections to the European Parliament on
June 7 and German Bundestag on September 27, a success the CSU needs
to survive as an influential regional party. It seems that the CSU
leadership has calculated that losing support from the friends of
the biotech in Bavaria is outweighed by possible gains from among
emotional opponents to agricultural biotechnology. The political
leadership ignores science arguments that support biotechnology.
The CSU's focus right now is clearly on Bavaria and on Bavaria
alone. Seehofer's team believes that rejection of genetically
modified foodstuffs, as well as stem cell research and patents on
animal breeding, reflect the will of the majority. These positions
have put the party at odds with Bavaria's world-class research
community, with the coalition partner Christian Democratic Union
(CDU),and with American business. End Summary.

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CSU Loses Farmers' Support
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2. Until recently, up to ninety percent of Bavarian farmers were
loyal CSU supporters. Whether out of habit or conviction became less
clear in the last years, we have been told repeatedly. This changed
in the 2008 state elections, where 50 percent of them deserted to
the Independents led by Hubert Aiwanger, himself a farmer. A recent
poll by Infratest of 500 farmers revealed that the CSU could further
lose its farming base, with only 23 percent of farmers polled saying
they would vote for the CSU in upcoming elections. Almost as many
would vote for the Independents. Analysts agree that these losses
cannot be attributed to the early CSU support for green technology
but rather to a long-growing sense that the old CSU has run its
course. Farmers are also angry about the very low wholesale price
of milk, for which the CSU may also be blamed.

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Agriculture Minister Aigner Caught in the Crossfire
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3. Aigner, one of the new young CSU faces, has flip-flopped over
gene technology issues as the election campaign heats up. She
succumbed to Seehofer's political pressure and on April 14 banned
the sowing of MON810, Monsanto's genetically engineered corn (a move
since challenged by Monsanto in court, reftel). She was quoted as
saying the decision "gave her a stomach ache," and this may be
because she is a former Eurocopter engineer who understands the
scientific approach better than the populist one. Aigner said the
decision was not "against green technology in general," but CSU
party colleague and Bavarian Environment Minister, Markus Soeder,
has, like Seehofer, urged prohibitions on all genetically modified
plants. Aigner also recently opposed a European patent application
for a test to check pigs for a gene that makes them produce more
meat. Taking a different tack on April 27, Aigner resisted party
pressure and permitted limited trials of the "Amflora" potato
developed by BASF. She said she did so after speaking with the
experts and business people. Seehofer "accepted" Aigner's decision
but Soeder expressed his disappointment, commenting that this sent
the wrong signal.

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Can Bavaria be a Zone Free of Gene Technology?
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4. Some of the most rabid opponents to GMOs in Bavaria are farmers
in the Franconia region, near Wurzburg, where approved field trials
are ongoing. Another problem is the Rosenheim area, close to
Aigner's own constituency, at the center of the CSU's Upper Bavarian
heartland. Here, an alliance by the name of "Civil Courage" has
focused on the fight against GMOs, attracting an ever growing number

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of determined supporters, reportedly 31,000 so far. The alliance
has been able to mobilize traditional CSU voters, as they can be
found in folklore groups ("Trachtenvereine"),shooting clubs, and
Catholic communities, all of which emphasize the "integrity of
creation." Commentators note that the CSU is coming "late to the
party" and may not win many points by adopting the anti-technology
approach now. It also might not help them with the CDU. Federal
Research Minister Annette Schavan (CDU) openly supports "green
technology." At a recent hearing on plant biotechnology,
parliamentarians of the CDU and FDP adamantly opposed the ban of
MON810 and requested political support for the technology. However,
Chancellor Merkel has not taken position on this topic.

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Scientists Fret over Bavaria's Lost Opportunities
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5. Bavaria may be the "high tech Mecca," according to Bill Gates,
but there has been little public backlash against the CSU's anti-GMO
positioning. Leaders such as Science Minister Heubisch (FDP) or
Munich Technical University President Wolfgang Herrmann have warned
recently that "Bavaria could voluntarily forego a great chance to
excel in a field where it was steadily building world-class
expertise." Other political parties long opposed to genetic
engineering have accused the CSU of populist opportunism in a hard
election year. The SPD, the Greens and the Independents support a
total ban of GMOs in Germany. The chairman of the Independent
Voters, Hubert Aiwanger, welcomed Aigner's ban of MON810 as
"overdue" and called for halting field trials. The newly-elected
chairperson of the Bavarian Young Socialists, Marietta Eder (SPD),
who comes from Lower Franconia where most of the field trials are,
adamantly rejects "green gene technology." Even the Bavarian FDP
welcomed the ban, concluding that "politics had to take the concerns
of the people seriously."

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COMMENT
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6. (SBU) The CSU is looking for traction by attacking genetic
engineering, a reversal from earlier positions. They are coming
late to the issue, so there is a question whether the CSU can hold
on to or win new voters by doing something that other major parties
already can claim. Our CSU contacts have privately confirmed that
Seehofer's fierce anti-GMO stance is coming from apocalyptic fears
of an election disaster on June 7, which in the worst case could
lead to the CSU falling out of the European Parliament and to his
being discredited as CSU leader. With the Independents taking part
in the EU elections, disenchanted farmers have a strong alternative
to the CSU. This, combined with an election falling during a
holiday and low voter interest, could make it hard for the CSU to
reach the five percent Germany-wide threshold it needs to get into
the EU Parliament. CSU contacts told us that despite some
misgivings about its new course, the CSU feels it has no other
choice but to do what the presumed majority of the people want, be
it a clear rejection of GMOs, of nuclear power (which the CSU
resists but carefully avoids to speak out on at this point),or stem
cell research that alienates its Catholic followers.


7. (U) Consulate General Munich coordinated this report with
Embassy Berlin and with the Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS).


8. (U) Track Munich reporting at
http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/Portal:Germ any.

TRAUB