BAVARIAN HOME PARTY FIGHTS FOR LOCAL SUPPORT,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MUNICH 000068

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/28/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV GM
SUBJECT: BAVARIAN HOME PARTY FIGHTS FOR LOCAL SUPPORT,
NATIONAL RELEVANCE BY SNIPING AT MERKEL

REF: BERLIN 280

Classified By: Eric G. Nelson for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

SUMMARY


1. (SBU) Christian Social Union (CSU) party chief Horst
Seehofer must prove to voters that his weakened party is
still standard bearer for Bavaria in order to make the five
percent hurdle in the June 7 European Parliamentary
elections. He is casting his party as an indispensible
faction representing Bavaria in the European Parliament and
as an independent-minded national coalition partner in
Berlin. CSU sniping about Chancellor Merkel,s leadership
style is making headlines, with the leadership focusing on
relatively minor issues like the Chancellor,s criticism of
the Pope. Slowly, more important issues, like fiscal
conservatism, have surfaced but it is still too early to know
whether the economic crisis will develop into a powerful
issue dominating a majority of the voters, attention in
Bavaria. The question is whether the voters who rejected the
CSU in September 2008 will warm again to Minister President
Seehofer,s populist return to the basic themes of Christian
and social values. End Summary.

First Challenge: Winning Seats in the EU Parliament
-------------- --------------


2. (C) The results of European Parliament elections on June 7
will determine how the CSU goes into the Bundestag elections
on September 27, according to Michael Hoehenberger (protect),
head of Policy Planning in the Bavarian State Chancellery and
personal advisor to Horst Seehofer, Bavarian Minister
President (CSU). In meetings on March 12 and again on March
25, Hoehenberger admitted to PolConsul that the CSU was in
the fight of its life to remain powerful inside Bavaria and
thus relevant on the national and European stages.
Separately, in our private meetings over the last few months
with politicians from the Free Democratic Party (FDP),
Greens, and Freie Waehler (Independents),we have
consistently heard the same thing: that the CSU is worried
about a low voter turnout rate since the European
parliamentary election falls during a major local holiday.
This, combined with lower approval ratings, could
significantly damage its chances in the EU election.


3. (C) Hoehenberger expressed confidence that if the CSU
wins EU seats, the party would then close ranks with the CDU
in the September Bundestag elections. On the other hand, a
loss at the EU level would weaken the CSU and alter its
relationship with the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) in
unforeseeable ways, he feared.

Merkel,s Image and Style Are Dominant Issues Now
-------------- ---


4. (C) Hoehenberger said that the CSU believes Chancellor
Merkel comes across to Bavarians as aloof and her image has
suffered when compared to President Obama,s dynamic &star
power.8 Merkel and Seehofer have contrasting personalities
and backgrounds. Merkel is viewed locally as cool and
analytical. She is a Protestant from East Germany and has a
university degree. Seehofer, a Catholic, has no university
degree. He has a &hail good fellow well met8 character and
is known as the &Robin Hood of the Little People.8 At the
party,s rally on Ash Wednesday, he cited sad memories of his
poor childhood as justification for his support of a new
school lunch program. Even his critics concede that no one
in the CDU/CSU knows more about social issues and health
reform than he.


5. (C) While there are internal CDU grumblings about
leadership qualities lacking in the CDU chairwoman, the CSU
is criticizing Merkel to enhance its prospects in Bavaria.
Hoehenberger recited popular criticism of Merkel,s handling
of Pope Benedict, which he said had alienated Catholics all
over Germany but rankled nowhere more than in the Pope,s
native Bavaria. He then mentioned Merkel,s subsequent
resistance to defending Erika Steinbach, President of the
Federation of (Sudeten) Expellees, which annoyed their
representatives everywhere but especially in Bavaria where
Minister President Seehofer is their honorary chairman. They
make up a strong minority voting bloc and Seehofer recently
pleased them when he awarded Steinbach a Bavarian Order of
Merit, an immediate reaction to Merkel,s cool distance from
the affair.


6. (C) Regarding the economic crisis, Hoehenberger argued
that Merkel fails society by not &taking people by the

MUNICH 00000068 002 OF 002


hand8 to &give them a sense of security and of being
protected.8 Her dismissal of Opel as ¬ critical for the
German economy8 was particularly poorly handled, he charged,
noting &it might be true but she did not have to say it in a
way that unsettled people.8 With the rise of Karl-Theodore
zu Guttenberg, the new and charismatic Economics Minister and
CSU leader, there is another potentially unflattering
comparison. Hoehenberger added that Merkel,s public persona
suffers from her years as leader of the CDU/CSU/SPD
coalition, which has progressively dulled her CDU patina and
undermined her bona fides with the conservative CSU party
faithful.


7. (SBU) There are reports that Seehofer is encouraging
criticism of Merkel within the party. During Sunday
afternoon strategy sessions at CSU headquarters in Munich, he
reportedly backs up those who criticize the grand coalition
in Berlin, even at the expense of the CDU. CSU EU deputies
Markus Ferber and Manfred Weber have dutifully attacked
Merkel,s lack of leadership qualities, and Emilia Mueller,
Bavarian Minister for European Affairs, has piled on.
However, former Minister President Gunther Beckstein told the
Consul General recently that he had his doubts about the
effectiveness among the rank and file of Seehofer,s approach
attacking Merkel.

The CSU Seeks Support of Traditional Voters
-------------- --------------


8. (C) &Traditional voters are our pillar,8 Seehofer wrote
in a recent &Bayernkurier8 newspaper editorial. &We have
to strengthen our traditional voters rather than rely on
uncertain voters who switch from one party to another.8
Separately, Beckstein confirmed this to the Consul General,
noting that the CSU,s main problem, according to polls, is
loss of conservative voters to FW and FDP. Hoehenberger said
that for the European Parliamentary elections, the CSU will
focus on Christian and social justice themes as well as
renewal of the Social Market economic model (&Soziale
Marktwirtschaft8) in Germany, Bavarian autonomy, and
agricultural issues. They are also making an issue of health
care reform, focusing on the health fund and doctors,
salaries.

Comment
--------------


9. (C) The CSU is in a difficult position. It has to be a
wheel squeaky enough to rally Bavarian support and enough
voter turn out to ensure they make the five percent hurdle
nationwide for entry into the European Parliament. In
raising its political profile with Bavarian voters and
showing how it is different from all the other parties, it
must also remain true to its sister party, the CDU.
Seehofer,s strategy is to win back support through
rejuvenating the party and focusing attention on traditional
issues. His stated disdain for courting new voter groups
might backfire if significant segments of his base continue
to believe that the CSU,s time has passed and stay at home
on June 7 or cast support elsewhere. If the CSU secures its
place as a European regional power, it is likely that it will
stop sniping at the Chancellor and line up with the CDU for
the September Bundestag elections.
NELSON