MUNICH SECURITY CONFERENCE - FOCUS ON IRAN

UNCLAS MUNICH 000022


WHITE HOUSE FOR OVP
H FOR CODEL MCCAIN

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV NATO GM
SUBJECT: MUNICH SECURITY CONFERENCE - FOCUS ON IRAN

REF: A) MUNICH 19, B) MUNICH 20, C) MUNICH 21, D) DUBAI 75

SUMMARY AND BACKGROUND
--------------


1. (U) In remarks at the Munich Security Conference (MSC),February
6-8, Speaker of the Iranian Parliament Ali Larijani repeatedly
emphasized that the West -- and the U.S. in particular -- has been
applying a double standard towards Iran since the Iranian revolution.
He argued that it is up to the Obama Administration to build new
bridges and emphasized that the carrot and stick approach is
obsolete. He noted that Iran is a leader for the Muslim world,
particularly regarding the Middle East conflict. For additional
analysis of the Larijani speech, see Ref. D.


LARIJANI: IRAN IS THREATENED
--------------


2. (U) Following his speech, during the panel discussion on arms
control on Friday, February 6, Larijani noted that Iran is surrounded
by a number of violent conflicts, including in Iraq, Afghanistan,
Lebanon and Gaza, and that the situation in each has worsened since
9/11. He questioned the West's policy in the region - from fighting
terrorism to searching for WMD in Iraq - pointing out the increase of
opium production in Afghanistan and the ongoing violence in Iraq.
Larijani did, however, welcome the appointment of Senator Mitchell as
Special Envoy for the Middle East as a positive signal.

WESTERN DOUBLE STANDARD
--------------


3. (U) Larijani argued that the West - and the United States in
particular - applies a double standard concerning the Iranian nuclear
program. He claimed Western acquiescence in India's and Pakistan's
nuclear weapons programs (despite the sanctions directed against
those countries following their nuclear tests). He ignored Iran's
own violations under the NPT. The United States, according to
Larijani, has violated its obligations under the contracts signed
under the Shah government to deliver nuclear equipment to Iran. He
complained several times that the U.S. has yet to refund the money
that Iran lost on the contracts.


4. (U) Larijani claimed that nuclear weapons are not part of Iran's
military doctrine, adding that attacking other states is a violation
of the principles of the Islamic revolution. Furthermore, he
expressed surprise about Western concerns about the recent launch of
an Iranian satellite, commenting that a satellite is "not a weapon of
mass destruction." He dodged a question about when or whether Iran
would ratify the NPT Additional Protocol by emphasizing that there
are currently 5000 centrifuges under IAEA surveillance. He further
claimed that all safeguards are accepted by Iran and all sites are
inspected by the IAEA.

NEW DEMANDS ON WASHINGTON
--------------


5. (U) Regarding Washington's "new tone," Larijani pressed the U.S.
to "admit its mistakes first," adding it is impossible to ignore or
rebut the "Islamic Awakening." He emphasized that the current carrot
and stick approach is dysfunctional, and must be replaced, noting
that "we are not donkeys." He argued that Iran is ready to cooperate
and recommended working toward long-term (and unnamed) common
interest. He stated that it is up to the U.S. government to redefine
a new approach to security, stating that "security must have a
regional face."

HOLOCAUST MENTIONED
--------------


6. (U) Asked about Iran's policy towards Israel, Larijani refused to
acknowledge the Holocaust, arguing that he is not an historian and
that Iran does not have laws that ban the denial of the Holocaust.
Larijani also criticized Western support for Israel, arguing that
this gives Iran the right to support Hamas, which, he claimed "is
weak."

OTHER LEADERS WEIGH IN ON IRAN
--------------


7. (U) During her speech on Saturday, February 7, German Chancellor
Merkel emphatically warned Iran of tougher sanctions should there be
no progress in the EU3+3 (P5+1) process. President Sarkozy later
warned that time is working against the West. He noted particular
concern with the launch of the Iranian satellite and indicated
support for additional sanctions should Iran not be more cooperative.
Sarkozy also called on Russia to cooperate more to halt the Iranian
threat.


8. (U) German FM Steinmeier emphasized that while no one wants to
deny Iran access to nuclear energy, it is unacceptable that Iran
pursues a nuclear weapons program disguised as a civilian nuclear
energy program. He pressed Iran to accept the offer by the E3+3 and
seize the opportunity of overcoming 30 years of silence in its
bilateral relationship with the United States. The Iranians must
understand that it is impossible to negotiate as long as the
centrifuges are turning, he noted. Unlike Chancellor Merkel,
Steinmeier did not explicitly threaten tougher sanctions against Iran
should their efforts continue.


9. (U) IAEA Director General Baradei argued for a "freeze for freeze"
solution to break the gridlock on the Iran nuclear issue. He urged
Iran to apply the Additional Protocol and freeze its enrichment
program, offering a sanctions' freeze (or suspension) should that
occur.


10. (U) Observers of the MSC were disappointed by Larijani's remarks.
Even though some participants noted their understanding that
Larijani does not want to undermine his possible presidential
candidacy, the general impression was that Larijani's confrontational
speech at the MSC represented a missed opportunity on the Iranian
side. However, at the tail end of his comments, Larijani did note
openness to regional discussions, which some participants felt may be
a signal indicating future dialogue.


11. (U) NOTE: The MSC published a Farsi language audio file of
Larijani's speech at the conference at:
http://www.securityconference.de/konferenzen/
rede.php?menu2009=&menu_konferenzen=&sprache
=en&id=226&.
The conference organizers have also promised to post the English
interpretation. END NOTE.

NELSON