MUNICH SECURITY CONFERENCE - FOCUS ON ARMS CONTROL

UNCLAS MUNICH 000020


WHITE HOUSE FOR OVP
H FOR CODEL MCCAIN

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV NATO GM
SUBJECT: MUNICH SECURITY CONFERENCE - FOCUS ON ARMS CONTROL

SUMMARY
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1. (U) Flanked by well-received calls for a renewed push for arms
control and disarmament by former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger
and U.S. Representative Ellen Tauscher, German FM Steinmeier used the
Munich Security Conference (MSC) as a platform to reiterate his arms
control agenda and to emphasize that a "zero solution" on nuclear
weapons is possible. The NPT, CFE, INF and ABM were discussed during
the arms control panel, the conference's first panel. While most
participants and panelists agreed that the start of a new U.S.
Administration represented an opportunity for reviving arms control
and nonproliferation efforts, few concrete proposals were offered.
Steinmeier in particular described 2009 as an opportunity to bring
arms control back to the fore of the international agenda and
described arms control and nonproliferation as "two sides of the same
coin." A number of conference participants mentioned that the
international community is anxiously awaiting renewed U.S. leadership
on this issue. (Other MSC issues reported SEPTELS.) END SUMMARY.

U.S. PARTICIPANTS' VIEWS WELL-RECEIVED
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2. (U) Former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger -- in Munich to
receive the newly established Ewald von Kleist Award for his
"significant contribution to global peace and conflict resolution" --
spoke broadly about arms control and the need for a renewed emphasis
on what he termed "a bipartisan" arms control agenda. He called on
the U.S. and Russia to work more closely on missile defense and
alluded frequently to his hopes for a nuclear-free world. He
reminded the audience of his impeccable credentials as a defender of
U.S. and Western security. Kissinger's well-known articles from the
Wall Street Journal and advocacy on behalf of a nuclear-free world
seemed to ensure that his comments would be welcome by the
international audience in Munich.


3. (U) Congresswoman Ellen Tauscher (D-CA),took the place of Senator
John Kerry (who remained in DC to work on the stimulus package) and
delivered well-received closing remarks on the conference's first
day. Rep. Tauscher called for a new debate on the role of nuclear
weapons and the need for a new defense strategy for the United
States, with an eye toward "reducing the size of our global nuclear
arsenal." She also called for efforts to repair the "badly damaged
arms control regime" including the negotiation of the Fissile
Material Cutoff Treaty, ratification of the Comprehensive Test Ban
Treaty (CTBT),and a successful 2010 NPT Review Conference.

NPT
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4. (U) Steinmeier reiterated his call for the "multilateralization"
of the nuclear fuel cycle to prevent countries from creating national
enrichment facilities. Looking forward to the 2010 Non-Proliferation
Treaty (NPT) review conference, he asserted that the world could not
afford another five years without further progress on fulfilling the
disarmament goals of the NPT. He noted how important it is to
prevent the proliferation of nuclear weapons technology in the Middle
East. Russian Deputy PM Sergei Ivanov noted that Russia's top NPT
priority remains increasing the treaty's efficiency. Representative
Tauscher called for automatic sanctions for countries that disregard
their NPT commitments.

START I
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5. (U) Steinmeier expressed hope that a successful extension or
follow-on to START I could facilitate U.S. ratification of the
Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). Sergey Ivanov told the
conference that Russia offered the United States back in 2005 to work
on a successor agreement to START I, but to no avail. Ivanov pointed
at the "capability problem" -- the question when a nuclear weapon is
considered dismantled -- as the major issue. Ivanov hopes to get a
positive response on the issue from the U.S. administration.
According to Ivanov, Russia expects a START follow-on agreement to be
legally binding. He also called for a ban of weapons in space.

CFE
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6. (U) German Chancellor Merkel described the Conventional Forces in
Europe Treaty (CFE) as a "central point" of arms control while
Steinmeier stated -- without irony -- that the war in Georgia
demonstrated the relevance of the CFE. He referred to the CFE as a
treaty that remains valid despite the suspension of Russia's
implementation, and he called for "developing" the CFE regime as an
instrument for "minimizing the danger of regional conflict."
Steinmeier reiterated plans to host a meeting of senior CFE experts
in Berlin in June of this year to develop "concrete proposals" in
this regard. Ivanov, meanwhile, blamed NATO policy for Russia's
suspension of the CFE treaty. He indicated an openness to talk about
the restoration of conventional arms control in Europe, but also
added that time is working against NATO's position and the CFE
itself.

CTBT
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7. (U) Steinmeier welcomed the U.S government's intention to send the
Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) to the Senate for ratification a
positive signal for arms control. Ivanov pointedly noted that Russia
ratified the CTBT back in 2000. He urged all countries to ratify the
CTBT.

MULTILATERALIZATION OF THE INF TREATY
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8. (U) Ivanov highlighted the U.S.-Russia initiative to
multilateralize the INF treaty, noting that several other countries,
including North Korea, China, Pakistan, India, Iran and Israel, have
acquired capabilities that would be regulated under an expanded INF
treaty. He noted that Russia shares a border with nearly all those
nations. He also thanked the U.S. for its role in supporting this
issue.

ABM TREATY / MISSILE DEFENSE
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9. (U) Asked about the ABM treaty, Ivanov emphasized that the U.S.
withdrawal from the ABM treaty had been a unilateral U.S. decision.
He suggested that it should be possible to get a successor agreement
to ABM once a joint assessment of all external threats is completed.
Steinmeier said the Russian suspension of plans to deploy Iskander
missiles in Kaliningrad provided an opening to seek an agreed
solution among the U.S., Russia and Europe regarding the planned U.S.
MD system in Europe. "When it concerns common threats, then common
responses must also be possible."

ZERO SOLUTION FOR NUCLEAR WEAPONS
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10. (U) FM Steinmeier referred to the proposal by former U.S.
officials Kissinger, Nunn, Schultz and Perry and what he referred to
as the response by elder German statesmen (von Weizsaecker, Bahr,
Schmidt and Genscher) as proof that it is possible to work actively
toward a world without nuclear weapons. He recommended a
step-by-step approach to reduce nuclear weapons, calling for nuclear
weapons states to disarm. IAEA Director General Mohammed elBaradei
made a number of recommendations to get to a global zero on nuclear
weapons, including a reduction of the dependence on nuclear weapons;
the establishment of a fissile material cut-off treaty (FMCT); the
ratification of the CTBT; a change in the deployment status of
nuclear weapons; and the establishment of a multinational enrichment
site. Interestingly, Russia's Ivanov did not touch upon the issue of
a possible zero solution on nuclear weapons.

NELSON