EU ELECTIONS IN BAVARIA: CSU RELIEVED, SPD SMASHED,

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MUNICH 000128

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV EUN ECON PREL GM
SUBJECT: EU ELECTIONS IN BAVARIA: CSU RELIEVED, SPD SMASHED,
INDEPENDENTS DISILLUSIONED

SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED. PLEASE PROTECT ACCORDINGLY.

REF: A) Berlin 683 (B) Munich 119

SUMMARY
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1. (SBU) The Christian Social Union (CSU) in Bavaria is relieved
after having handily made the five percent hurdle in the June 7
European Parliament (EP) elections. The drawing power of Economics
Minister zu Guttenberg and the party's uniquely Bavarian election
message worked. With its good showing, the CSU mobilized enough
Bavarian voters to win nearly half of all votes cast in the state
and more than 7 percent of the federal total, giving the party eight
seats in the EP. The Independents (Freie Waehler, FW) drew so
little support that they failed to enter the EP and likely will
forego participation in the Bundestag election in September. The
Bavarian Social Democratic Party (SPD) beat the national SPD in the
race to the bottom (REF A). The EP results could put further
stress on the Grand Coalition in Berlin as the CSU, with renewed
self-confidence, takes an increasingly visible role in Berlin and
looks to gain a stronger hand in formulating the combined CDU/CSU
campaign platform. End Summary.

Cheers at the CSU
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2. (SBU) CSU party officials hailed the 48.1 percent result as a
striking recovery from the most recent 2008 Bavarian Landtag
election, when the CSU drew just 43.7 percent of the vote. The CSU
has comfortably topped the 5 percent national threshold required to
enter the EP. With 7.2 percent of the overall German vote, it now
sends eight parliamentarians to the EU, compared to the nine it
sent after the 2004 election (REF B). The CSU's central campaign
message was "nationalistic": that the CSU was the only party that
is exclusively Bavarian and a vote for any other party could lead to
a loss of a "truly Bavarian" voice in the EP.


3. (SBU) Despite the local holiday and no other elections on the
ballot, voter turnout in Bavaria bucked the national downward trend
and increased from 39 to 42 percent. This was the first real test
for CSU party chairman and Bavarian Minister President Horst
Seehofer, who has worked hard to rejuvenate the party. The
popularity of the relatively new Economics Minister Karl-Theodor zu
Guttenberg (the "zu Guttenberg factor") certainly helped. Zu
Guttenberg made headlines for his skeptical take on the Opel rescue
package, and the CSU put his face on campaign posters thereafter.
Moreover, a recent national poll revealed that 61 percent of German
voters shared his skeptical view with regard to state subsidies for
the bankrupt retail giant Arcandor.

The SPD: Keyless and Clueless
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4. (SBU) There is no bottom yet to the fall of the Bavarian SPD.
Mirroring its national performance, it achieved its worst post-war
result ever with 12.9 percent of the Bavarian vote, just 1.4 percent
more than the Greens. The Bavarian SPD proved how badly organized
it is at the final pre-election rally on June 5, where fewer than
20 spectators endured delay and then waited over thirty minutes for
the party's lead candidate, Wolfgang Kreissl-Doerfler, to stop
talking on his cell phone with his back turned to the audience.
Likewise, at the June 8 post-election press conference, journalists
were squeezed into a tiny room since the SPD had lost the keys to
the larger conference room where they normally hold such events.

Independents Fail and Fight in Public
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5. (SBU) Meanwhile, the Freie Waehler (Independents) failed to
repeat their breakthrough performance of 2008, when they won over 10
percent of the vote in the Bavarian state election. This time, with
6.7 percent in Bavaria and merely 1.7 percent nationally, the FW
fell far short of the votes needed to enter the EP. Consequently,
at a press conference in Munich on June 8, both national chairman
Armin Grein and Bavarian chairman Hubert Aiwanger declared they
expected the group to forgo the federal elections in September,
noting that the FW would take a formal decision at a June 20 board
meeting. Just at this point in the press conference, Gabriele
Pauli breezed in late, where she repeated her election night
proclamation that she intended to form a party of her own. Pauli,
the top Freie Waehler candidate for the EU election, notorious
Bavarian politician, and FW Landtag deputy, apparently had not
informed Aiwanger and Grein in advance of her plan, as they were
visibly "not amused" at her gambit that risks splitting the Freie
Waehler.


MUNICH 00000128 002 OF 002


COMMENT
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6. (SBU) One thing is certain. The more confident CSU will now
insist on having more of a say in the joint CDU/CSU campaign
platform, a development which will make the CSU more of an equal
partner, and a more difficult one at that, for Chancellor Merkel.
It is also clear that Economics Minister zu Guttenberg will continue
to take a prominent role as the party moves into the national
election. Called a "man to watch" by the Financial Times, zu
Guttenberg has become the de facto leader of the CDU's/CSU's
free-market, low-tax, pro-business faction. His stance of economic
orthodoxy has boosted his popularity, and his standing up to
Chancellor Merkel on the Opel rescue played well in Bavaria and
nationally. In contrast to zu Guttenberg, CSU Chairman Horst
Seehofer has spoken in favor of saving retail companies such as
Arcandor and Schaeffler because of the many people they employ in
Bavaria, although he says he completely supports zu Guttenberg and
denies they disagree substantively on the issue. Finally, the EP
election outcome seems to indicate that Bavarians are still
comfortable with the fact that the CSU has had to govern in a
coalition with the Free Democratic Party since the 2008 state
election. In fact, in the EU election, the FDP was able to more
than double its 2004 EP election showing from 4.2 to 9 percent. End
comment.


7. (U) Consulate General Munich coordinated this cable with
Embassy Berlin.

NELSON