Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09MUNICH119
2009-06-03 15:56:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Consulate Munich
Cable title:  

GAME ON - OR GAME OVER? - FOR THE CSU IN THE

Tags:  PREL PGOV GM 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO9611
OO RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHNP RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHMZ #0119/01 1541556
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 031556Z JUN 09
FM AMCONSUL MUNICH
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4789
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUCNFRG/FRG COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHFRS/AMCONSUL STRASBOURG PRIORITY 0002
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MUNICH 000119 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/03/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV GM
SUBJECT: GAME ON - OR GAME OVER? - FOR THE CSU IN THE
EUROPEAN PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS

Classified By: Consul General Eric Nelson for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MUNICH 000119

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/03/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV GM
SUBJECT: GAME ON - OR GAME OVER? - FOR THE CSU IN THE
EUROPEAN PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS

Classified By: Consul General Eric Nelson for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: Days before the June 7 European Parliament
elections in Germany, the Christian Social Union (CSU) is at
a deciding moment in its history as a powerful regional party
in Germany and in Europe, and the German political
establishment is on tenterhooks. Voters do not seem to be as
engaged, which is a sign of the times, and typical for the
European Parliament elections. The CSU campaign focuses on
why Bavarians need the CSU -- self-styled defender of
Bavarian interests -- to be in Strasbourg taking care of
Bavaria. The CSU,s failure to stay in the EU Parliament
could mortally wound Europe's erstwhile most-powerful
regional party, severely jeopardize CSU standing vis-a-vis
the sister Christian Democratic Union party (CDU) just four
months before the German Bundestag election. End Summary.

CSU,s Downward Slide
--------------


2. (SBU) For decades, the EU elections in Bavaria were
predictable. Despite a low voter turnout, the CSU would win
between 55 and 65 percent of the vote, which put them over
the five percent national threshold and assured it mandates
in the EU Parliament. Following the CSU's September 2008
election debacle in which it lost its 50-year absolute
majority rule in Bavaria, the CSU may not be able to recoup
its losses to prevent a further slide. The CSU now fears the
trend will continue and the traditional party base may fail
to give enough support on June 7 to keep the party in the
Parliament.


3. (SBU) The Free Democratic Party (FDP),the CSU's
coalition partner, could attract some disaffected CSU voters
or undecideds, as they did in the September 2008 elections.
But the biggest threat to the CSU comes from the Freie
Waehler (FW, Independents),also conservative and the CSU's
number one rival in Bavaria. Their surprise win of ten
percent of the vote in September 2008 came after they stole
half of the CSU's base, the rural, conservative, farm vote.
Recent opinion polls have shown that these same voters are
currently split between continued support of the CSU and a
protest vote for the FW, with CSU support hovering around a
low 25 percent. Frustration over falling farm incomes and

high farm expenses is water on the mill of the FW.
Political observers have little doubt that the FW will fail
to win five percent of the vote Germany-wide since they are
not eligible in all German states. However, the CSU runs
only in Bavaria. The fear is that disenchantment with the
CSU combined with a protest vote for the FW could cost the
CSU the five percent minimum.

And Turnout Slides as Well
--------------


4. (C) Fears aside, opinion polls are unclear about the
election because of uncertainty over the turnout. From a
high of 60 percent in 1979, turnout fell to 39.7 in 2004 when
the CSU got 57.4 percent of the vote in Bavaria. This
translated to eight percent nationally, well over the needed
five percent. This year, some observers say turnout could be
further depressed because many voters will be on vacation on
June 7, in the middle of a two-week holiday period. However,
Christian Kattner, a senior CSU functionary, told the Consul
General on June 3 that it seems absentee ballots are up 40%
over the last EU election, a fact that cheered the CSU
leadership. Most people assume that a CSU result of 43.4
percent, mirroring the 2008 state elections, or just 40
percent, would be enough in the national mix to spell
success.

CSU,s Good Ole Boys May Need Change
--------------



5. (SBU) Officially, CSU politicians convey optimism about
CSU chances. The CSU campaign has resurrected old slogans
that worked before: no EU membership for Turkey; direct
support measures for Bavarian farmers; subsidiarity for EU
decision making. They now also support the introduction of
public referenda in Germany on major EU issues, a suggestion
at odds with the CDU. Minister President Seehofer has also
tried to make the CSU appear younger and more female
oriented. His insistence on running Monika Hohlmeier,
daughter of the legendary former MP Franz Josef Strauss, may
draw a few more people to the polls.


6. (C) In private conversations with the Consul General and
Poloff, however, two CSU leaders admitted serious doubts and
criticized the party's approach. Deputy CSU Secretary

MUNICH 00000119 002 OF 002


General Dorothea Baer, one of Minister President Seehofer's
new young guard told us that she was far less optimistic
about June 7 than most of her party friends. Likewise, at
another private meeting, Justice Minister Beate Merk, unique
in CSU circles as a clear-speaking "liberal," single and
childless leader, angrily complained that the CSU was
"failing utterly" to capture new, especially female, voters.
She said that the leadership and base still viewed women in
the stifling, patriarchal way, wholly inconsistent with the
varied roles that single mothers, working women, and other
women take today.

Comment
--------------


7. (C) Bavarians are frustrated with politics and distracted
by the economic crisis. Even though Bavarian unemployment is
still about half the national average, Bavaria's auto and
machine tool industries are suffering, as are the farmers in
general. Bavarians are also tired of election campaigns
after municipal and state elections last year and Bundestag
elections coming in September. Although Bavaria is a net
economic winner from EU expansion, the "nationalistic"
Bavarians are skeptical of an EU whose governance seems to
them to disregard the regions. At this point, we expect the
CSU will just get the votes it needs to reach the five
percent threshold Germany-wide. Should it fail to do so,
however, there are rough times ahead for the CSU in the
imminent national election campaign. End comment.


8. (U) Consulate General Munich coordinated this cable with
Embassy Berlin.
NELSON