BHARAT BALLOT 09: POLLING IN MADHYA PRADESH GENERATES HEAT,

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TAGS: PGOV KDEM IN PINR
SUBJECT: BHARAT BALLOT 09: POLLING IN MADHYA PRADESH GENERATES HEAT,
NOT LIGHT

REF: 08 MUMBAI 587

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1. (U) Summary: As Madhya Pradesh went to the polls in two
phases in April, observers described the campaigns as
lackluster, with little drama and few issues to excite the
voters. The state, one of the poorest in India, has been ruled
at the state level by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) since
2003; in the last Lok Sabha elections, the BJP took 25 out of 29
seats as well. However, political observers say the Congress
Party will regain some ground in the Lok Sabha as it did in the
state-level election in November 2008, picking up as many as
three to seven seats; these gains may come in the tribal areas
along the southern and eastern borders of the state. With no
national issues to get out the vote, voter turnout in the
scorching heat was lower than hoped, estimated at about 51
percent overall. Commentators predicted that winning candidates
will largely succeed on their own merits, rather than due to the
platforms, messages, or personalities of the political parties.
End Summary.



MADHYA PRADESH BASICS

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2. (U) Madhya Pradesh (MP) went to the polls to elect 29
Members to the Lok Sabha (the lower house of Parliament) in two
phases, April 23 and 30. With a population of over 60 million
and nearly 39 million eligible voters, MP has the
seventh-largest state delegation in the Lok Sabha. Though
essentially a two-party race between the BJP and Congress, 27
parties fielded candidates and 89 people ran as independents.
Going into the elections, the BJP held 23 Lok Sabha seats, the
Congress five and the Samajwadi Party (SP) one. Last year, the
BJP's Parliamentarian from Bhind defected to the SP, and the BJP
Parliamentarian from Damoh, ejected from the party over his
support for the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) in the
no-confidence vote last fall resulting from the U.S.-India Civil
Nuclear Cooperation Initiative, joined the Congress. Four of
the state's seats are reserved for members of Scheduled Castes
(SC, or Dalits) and six, along the periphery of the state, are
reserved for members of Scheduled Tribes (ST, or "tribals").
(Note: Tribals comprise 21 percent of the state's population.
End note.) Heavyweights contesting from MP include the
Congress's Kamal Nath, the Union Minister for Commerce and
Industry, and Jyotiraditya Scindia, Union Minister of State for
IT and Communications. Long time Gandhi loyalist Arjun Singh,
the Union Minister for Human Development, however, was stunned
when the Congress denied tickets to his children: daughter Veena
Singh is running as an Independent for the Sidhi district, while
his son, Ajay Singh, a state legislator, wanted to contest the
seat in Satna, but decided to sit out rather than contest as an
independent.



VOTERS SOMBER AND SUBDUED

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3. (SBU) Congenoffs visited MP April 29 and 30 to gauge the
election mood and found a somber, dispirited electorate. Rakesh
Dixit, the Hindustan Times' Bhopal bureau chief told Congenoffs
"this was the dullest election in memory." Media sources
estimated that voter turn out was 51 percent, up slightly from
the 48 percent turn out in the last national election, but far
lower than the hoped for 60 percent. He said young voters
failed to turn out despite a huge push by the parties, the
media, and Bollywood stars. While conceding that the scorching
heat -- 104 to 113 degrees Fahrenheit -- may have been a factor,
he said voter apathy was the primary cause. Neither party
excited the voters, he lamented. Umesh Trivedi, an editor with
the NaiDunia group of Hindi newspapers, said that those who
actually voted were motivated by a sense of obligation to the
system or by the individual candidates in each district rather
than national level issues.





OBSERVERS BELIEVE BJP WILL SLIP, CONGRESS TO GAIN

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4. (U) In a repeat of the State Assembly elections in November
2008, the Lok Sabha election is largely a fight between Congress
and BJP candidates. In the 2008 state elections, the BJP was
re-elected with a firm mandate, winning 143 of 230 Assembly
seats. Observers credited the BJP's successful re-election in
the 2008 Assembly elections to the leadership and appeal of the
BJP's Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan, seen by many as a
well-respected, effective leader. While this was a clear
victory for the BJP, the party lost 30 seats from its 2003
showing, and the Congress doubled its strength, rising from 33
to 71 seats.




5. (SBU) However, observers believed that Chouhan's leadership
appeal would not translate into votes for the BJP in the
national elections, despite his intensive campaigning in every
part of the state. Shravan Kumar Garg, an editor at Dainik
Bhaskar, the leading Hindi newspaper in Madhya Pradesh, said
that the BJP's electoral fortunes had peaked and had nowhere to
go but down. Even the BJP's Organizing Secretary for the state,
Anil Dave, noted despondently, "Now is not the time for the BJP.
We failed to carry our message to the voters. We failed to
tell them of our vision for the future."




6. (SBU) Observers project that the Congress in MP will repeat
its modest success from the Assembly elections, gaining possibly
three to seven Lok Sabha seats, mostly in the tribal areas along
the southern and eastern borders of the state. Interlocutors
posited various explanations for the gains. Some observers
argued this may be due to the fact that these were traditional
Congress-Party strongholds that voted for the BJP in the last
national election out of frustration, but are now returning to
the fold, while others credited the UPA's poverty alleviation
programs and other programs that have directly assisted tribal
populations. Yet others said that with both parties seen as
lackluster in MP, victory belongs to the candidate in each
district who best inspired voters and had the best campaign
machine to get out the vote. Observers all commented that the
Congress party lacked an effective state-wide machine, and many
faulted the party's state chair, Suresh Pachouri, for passing
over stronger candidates due to personal rivalries. A critic of
the BJP government's performance, Dixit blamed the Congress
Party's poor organization and weak candidates in many districts
for its inability to effectively challenge the BJP. He quipped,
"If the people had their way, the Congress would win. If the
Congress had its way, the BJP would win."



POVERTY DROVE ELECTION ISSUES: FOOD AND ENERGY

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7. (U) The second largest state geographically, MP is largely
agrarian and over one-third of its land mass is forest-covered.
It is one of the poorest states in India: 73 percent live in
rural villages, but even in urban centers the poverty is
profound. (Note: India defines poverty as earning less than 100
Rupees (2 USD) per day. End Note.) A recent study in the
economic paper Mint said that 36.79 percent of those living in
rural MP are poor (almost 17 million people) and the situation
is even worse for urban dwellers -- 42.72 percent fall below the
poverty line (six million people). (Note: Only Uttar Pradesh
and Bihar fare worse in rural poverty. End Note.) The Economic
Times reports that the average annual household income in the
state, for 2007, was 74,727 rupees, (1500 USD),compared to the
nation-wide average household income of 115,000 rupees (2300
USD),and only 46 percent of households are connected to paved
roads. A 2008 study by the International Food Policy Research
Institute revealed that Madhya Pradesh has one of the worst
malnutrition problems in the world. Literacy is also low across
the state: the 2001 census reported a state-wide literacy rate
of 64.11 percent (literacy is defined as the ability to sign
one's name),nearly equal to the national average, but in eight
blocks (roughly 100 villages each),the literacy rate for women
was below 35 percent, and as low as 15 percent in Karahal in the
Sheopur district. Many vote by identifying the party symbol
they wish to vote for as they cannot read the names of the
candidates.




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8. (SBU) State Congress General Secretary Rajeev Singh listed
specific programs of the UPA administration to aid the poor and
bring development to the state: the National Rural Employment
Guarantee Program, the Farm Debt Waiver Program, free mid-day
meals at schools, the rural roads program, and girl-child
programs designed to offset the cost of raising a girl. (Note:
The BJP claimed credit for this program in the state elections
last fall. End Note.) Singh also claimed that the Congress has
been able to capitalize on three other poverty alleviation
programs: the central government's program to regularize
cultivation rights for tribals and other forest dwellers, the
UPA's efforts to improve the power supply through the U.S.-India
Civil Nuclear Cooperation Initiative, and the Jawaharlal Nehru
Urban Renewal program that spent 520 million dollars to build
better dwellings for urban poor and provide potable water. The
BJP's 5-term incumbent in Indore, Sumitra Mahajan, remarked that
food, electricity and water were the prime concerns of her
electorate. She blamed the Congress-led central government for
failing to reign in double-digit inflation in food prices,
maintaining that "The voters trust us to fix it when we get in
office." She did not offer alternative policies, however. How
voters credit or blame the parties for their policies is always
difficult to discern. S.R. Mohanty, a senior Indian
Administrative Service officer in the state, remarked that the
bureaucracy in the state is seen by voters as the face of the
BJP, thus whatever frustrations there are about government
programs are blamed on the BJP.



ADVANI VS SINGH

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9. (SBU) Neither Prime Minister candidate received high
approval ratings from our interlocutors, though for different
reasons. The BJP's chief campaign strategy in the state was to
argue that Prime Minister Singh is a weak leader compared to BJP
prime ministerial candidate L.K. Advani. The BJP's Dave
acknowledged that this approach misfired, as many voters
remembered that the BJP - and Advani in particular - had
struggled to project a strong image against terrorism when the
BJP was in power from 1999-2004. Anil Chawla, a researcher with
Hindustan Studies and Services, concurred, noting that some see
Advani as tainted by the violence from the Babri Mosque
demolition, and others see him as old and out of touch; some,
even within his own party, reportedly see him as arrogant and
unable to inspire cohesiveness within the BJP's own ranks.
Further, Advani's Sindhi Brahmin heritage gained the party no
significant caste-based support or loyalties. Chawla claimed
that the BJP's usual partners do not want to deal with Advani,
so they, too, have backed away from supporting the BJP's PM
candidate.




10. (SBU) Prime Minister Manmohan Singh was seen as more
respected, though not necessarily more approachable. Sumeet
Maheshwari, co-owner of Navbharat Group press said that voters
viewed favorably the accomplishments of Singh's government and
saw that in a crisis he made good decisions and was tough with
Pakistan without risking war. Media interlocutors noted that
the current PM is generally seen by voters as a kind, peaceful
face that Indians, in MP at least, want representing them. They
noted, however, that he does not connect well with the common
voter. During his eight visits to MP during the campaign, Singh
limited his talks to business groups, instead of mass rallies or
interaction with common voters. Dixit observed that the PM is
very intelligent and appeals to educated voters, but is often
unable to connect with the masses.



PEOPLE TO WATCH

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11. (SBU) In an otherwise lackluster campaign, two candidates
stood out: the Congress's Satyanarayan Patel, running against
Sumitra Mahajan in Indore, and the BJP's Sushma Swaraj, running
unopposed in Vidisha thanks to her Congress opponent's failure
to properly file his candidacy papers. Shukla said Patel is
seen as a very bright, able candidate; now 42, he has been
involved in politics since he was 18 years old. Patel had
previously been elected to the state Assembly from two

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constituencies included in the Indore Parliamentary seat, but
lost in the fall 2008 Assembly elections when Congress put him
on a ticket in a new, third district. While none of our
interlocutors projected him to beat his five-time incumbent BJP
opponent, Sumitra Mahajan, his career was frequently noted as
worth following. When Congenoff encountered Patel on the
campaign trail, Patel seemed well informed on the issues, was a
good public speaker, and stayed energetic, despite the scorching
heat. In discussion with both Mahajan and Patel, he was clearly
the more articulate and informed candidate, but as Karansingh
Pawar, himself a former MLA, noted, the common voter is often
put off by intelligence and prefers politicians who speak at
their level.




12. (U) Swaraj is a 57-year old former two-time Indian cabinet
minister for Information and Broadcasting during the BJP-led
governments in Delhi. She was Chief Minister of Delhi and
currently serves in the Rajya Sabha, the upper house,
representing Madhya Pradesh. She is a lawyer by training but
has spent most of her life in politics, starting in Haryana, her
home state. She was understandably confident of victory in
Vidisha, with no Congress opponent, and campaigned in other
states to help BJP candidates, concomitantly building her own
base of support for the future. Observers posited that even if
Congress had not failed in its efforts to contest this seat,
Swaraj would have won, as the BJP has controlled the seat for
the last six elections.



THIRD FRONT A NON-ISSUE IN MP

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13. (SBU) Though the Lok Sabha elections have historically
been a two-party contest in MP, third parties made some inroads
in the state elections last fall. Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj
Party (BSP) won seven seats in the Assembly, but is not
anticipated to make an impact in the Parliamentary elections.
Traditionally, the BSP has eaten into the Congress Party's vote
banks, but Sanjay Shukla opined that business kingpins, looking
for turf they could control, would be shifting support to BSP,
cutting into the BJP vote bank as well. (Note: In contrast,
Congress leader and candidate for the Indore seat, Satyanaran
Patel, argued that business leaders and the intelligentsia,
normally core BJP voters, like the steady, pro-growth leadership
of Congress's Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. End Note.) In the
end, pundits felt that the BSP would gain in vote share, but not
enough to win any seats. Uma Bharati, a former BJP Chief
Minister of the state, had fielded her own party for the
Assembly elections and won five seats, but is sitting out this
election.




14. (SBU) Comment. While the final verdict of this suspenseful
national election will be known only when the votes are counted
on May 16, the consensus among pundits was that the Congress
Party will gain three to seven seats in MP. The BJP is likely
to retain their traditional urban seats of Indore, Bhopal and
Jabalpur, while the swing seats are along the periphery of the
state, in tribal areas traditionally seen as Congress bastions.
The expectation that the Congress will pick up seats is
credited to the merits of individual candidates especially in
this current atmosphere where Congress fans and foes alike
describe the current Congress state Chairman, Suresh Pachouri,
as ineffective and disorganized. While party loyalty was seen
as less of a factor in this election than the ability of
individual candidates to turn out voters, in this economically
challenged state, the poverty alleviation programs of Congress
also inevitably played a role in winning back a few seats for
Congress in the most economically depressed areas. Nonetheless,
the BJP is likely to maintain its strong hold over most of the
state. End Comment.
FOLMSBEE