BHARAT BALLOT 09: CONGRESS MAY REGAIN FOOTHOLD IN VIDARBHA,

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 05 MUMBAI 000168

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

USDA PASS FAS/OCRA
STATE PASS TO USTR

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: EAGR ECON SOCI PGOV IN
SUBJECT: BHARAT BALLOT 09: CONGRESS MAY REGAIN FOOTHOLD IN VIDARBHA,
DESPITE FARMER TROUBLES, NEGLECT, AND SUICIDES

REF: MUMBAI 0153

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1. (U) Summary. The troubled rural region of Vidarbha in
eastern Maharashtra went to the polls on April 16, and pundits
and pollsters agree that the Congress will regain their foothold
in the region, at the expense of candidates from the Bharatiya
Janata Party-Shiv Sena alliance. Located in the dead center of
the country, the Vidarbha region has become known for the high
prevalence of farmer suicides, brought on by indebtedness, years
of poor rainfall, and neglect from state and national political
leaders. Vidarbha's farmers are unorganized and lack political
patrons, such as Sharad Pawar in western Maharashtra, to ensure
that development funds and projects flow to the region.
Congress's pro-agriculture policies may pay off, but farmers
suffering from the failure of this year's soybean crop want more
financial help from the national and state governments, and hold
little hope for solutions from their elected officials. End
Summary.



Vidarbha Goes to the Polls

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2. (U) On April 16, voters went to the polls in 10
constituencies in the eastern Maharashtra region known as
Vidarbha. (Note: Voting took place in three other Maharashtra
constituencies in the neighboring Marathwada region. End note.)
With a population of 20.6 million people (2001 census),
Vidarbha once had 11 seats, but lost one seat during the
redistricting of constituencies that took into account
population migration to urban centers. The lost Lok Sabha seat
is currently occupied by a rebel Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) MP
who was expelled from the party for supporting the UPA coalition
during the July 2008 no-confidence vote over the implementation
of the U.S.-India Civil Nuclear Cooperation Initiative.




3. (SBU) The region had long been a Congress bastion, but in
2004, the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance won ten of the then-total
eleven Parliamentary seats. The Congress-Nationalist Congress
Party (NCP) alliance won only one seat, Nagpur, the region's
only predominately urban seat. (Note: This runs counter to the
traditional view that BJP is stronger in urban areas and
Congress's strength is in rural areas. End note.) In the state
assembly elections that followed in late 2004, however, the
region voted overwhelmingly for the Congress-NCP coalition.
Media sources reported a voter turnout rate of about 54 percent,
a figure consistent with the 2004 election, but lower than other
regions. The media also speculated that this would hurt the
Congress Party, which had hoped for a high turnout motivated by
anti-incumbency. (Note: Voter turnout rates can be affected by
many factors, including the quality of voter eligibility records
or changes in constituency boundaries, in addition to voter
apathy. End Note.)



Will the UPA's Farm Relief Programs Lead to Votes?

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4. (U) Vidarbha is a poor, arid, rainfall-dependent region,
lacking the necessary irrigation systems to supplant the
frequent low rainfall and falling water table. Agricultural
experts and farmers in Vidarbha claim that the region is
currently suffering the worst drought in a decade; the region
received less than 700 mm of rain in 2008 as compared to an
average annual rainfall of 1000-1200 mm. During a visit to the
region in late March, ConGenoff noticed that the water level of
the rivers and wells in Vidarbha was very low. Cotton has been
the staple crop in the region, but more recently farmers have
planted soybeans, a less water-intensive crop. Only 11 percent

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of Vidarbha is irrigated. The lack of a political patron to
help improve the agricultural infrastructure of the region has
led many to call Vidarbha the forgotten "stepchild" of
Maharashtra agriculture, taking a back seat to the sugar and
wine regions that come under the patronage of National Congress
Party leader Sharad Pawar. Agricultural interlocutors said that
irrigation projects in the region have not yet been implemented.
In any case, most admitted that only 40 percent of Vidarbha, at
best, can be irrigated due to the regions' geographical and
topological characteristics. (Note: In conversations with
Congenoffs, agricultural experts and Maharashtra agriculture
officials questioned the viability of agriculture in Vidarbha;
one official said that farmers in this region would be better
off leaving the land for jobs in other industries. Several
interlocutors touted the potential for solar energy generation
in the region, as it receives the most intense sunlight. End
note.)




5. (U) Though the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance
(UPA) government has initiated programs to aid this drought
stricken area, it is unclear whether those efforts will convert
into votes this election. The UPA government enacted a farm
debt-waiver program to alleviate the financial crunch for
farmers, but the program did not reach many of those who needed
it most. (Note: Over 7,000 farmers have committed suicide in
Vidarbha since 2001, caused primarily by farmers' indebtedness
due to rainfall-related crop failures. End Note.) Pradip
Maitra, a journalist with the Hindustan Times in Nagpur, noted
that 1,246 farmers committed suicide in Vidarbha in 2008 despite
the central government relief packages, including the farm loan
waiver program (reftel). The government has provided loan
waivers to 900,000 out of the 2.3 million farmers in the six
suicide-prone districts of Vidarbha, he said. However, 60-70
percent of the farm loans in Vidarbha were from money lenders
and were therefore, not covered by the farm loan waiver program.
He admitted that the average rate of suicides dropped to 2 per
day from 3 per day after the announcement of the farm loan
waiver.




6. (U) The Congress-led UPA government also tried to help
farmers by raising the Minimum Support Price (MSP) for cotton by
33-40 percent for different cotton varieties in September 2008.
The Vidarbha cotton farmers benefited from the rise in the
cotton MSP, especially since Maharashtra government agencies
procured 90 percent of the cotton in the state at the revised
MSP. (Note: The announcement of an MSP dictates the crop
procurement price. The government is then obliged to purchase
any and all cotton from local farmers if the market price falls
below the MSP. End Note.) However, at a meeting with farmers in
the Wardha district of Vidarbha, ConGenoff learned that good
soybean yields and favorable soybean prices in 2007 prompted
many Vidarbha farmers to shift more acreage to soybeans in 2008
to diversify their income sources. This resulted in reduced
cotton cultivation before the MSP rise was announced. The
timing of rainfall received in 2008 was auspicious for the
cotton crop, but it was not soon enough in the season for the
soybean crop to benefit. Farmers told ConGenoffs that any
profit they made from selling cotton at the higher MSP was
offset by losses from the failed soybean crop.



Ignored by Politicians, Is Separate Statehood the Answer?

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7. (SBU) Most agricultural experts with whom ConGenOff spoke
agreed that Vidarbha politicians have historically lacked the
political will to lobby the central and state governments for
more favorable agricultural and development policies for the
region. Maitra pointed out that the senior political leaders
who contested from Nagpur, the BJP's Nitin Gadkari and Vilas

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Muttemwar of the Congress Party, are more committed to "playing
politics" in Mumbai or Delhi than doing constituency level work
in Nagpur. Sohan Pandharipande, editor of the pro-Congress
Lokmat newspaper, noted that no political party has been able to
successfully organize and lead the Vidarbha farmers. He cited
poor governance as the main factor for the delays in
implementing irrigation projects. For example, he noted that
the Gosikhurd dam project in the Bhandara district of Vidarbha
took 27 years to complete. The irrigation project cost has
escalated from USD 74 million to USD 1.5 billion due to the
delay.




8. (SBU) The Hindustan Times' Maitra stated that Vidarbha
suffers from a "development backlog." He noted that Chandrapur
district in Vidarbha generates 3,500 MW of electricity, which is
more than sufficient to power the district, but it still faces 8
hours of power outages each day. Nagpur city still suffers
power interruptions despite having two power plants generating a
total of 4,500 MW. The city recovers only 1,800 MW for its use,
and the rest is distributed to other parts of Maharashtra.
Activist Jawandhiya believes that the separation of Vidarbha
from Maharashtra is the only solution to the region's
development problems. With separate statehood, he claimed,
resources would remain within Vidarbha, and funds would be
allocated solely for the development of the region and would not
be diverted to other areas of Maharashtra with stronger
political leadership and greater political patronage, he said.



Pundits and Polls Favor Congress to Pick up Seats

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9. (SBU) While polling in India is notoriously fickle,
observers and pollsters are predicting gains for the Congress,
despite reports of lower voter turnout. According to the BJP
National Treasurer, Piyush Goyal, an internal BJP exit poll
shows that the Congress will likely pick up at least 3-4 seats
in the Vidharba region. He admitted that the 2004 BJP-Shiv Sena
sweep came as a surprise to the BJP, and they "can only lose
seats in the region" in this election. Maitra agreed, and
projected that the Congress may improve its position by two to
three seats in Vidarbha, close to the findings of the BJP exit
polling. Jawandhiya, who helped plan the Prime Minister's visit
to Vidarbha in 2006, concurred that the Congress Party would
gain in the region. Similarly, the editor of the pro-Congress
paper Lokmat, Pandharipande, believes that the Congress likely
picked up many seats in the region. He stated that the
influence of main opposition BJP was waning throughout the
country, and the party would lose seats in Vidarbha as well as
the nation as a whole.




10. (SBU) Vivek Deshpande, a journalist for the Indian Express
based in Nagpur, told ConGenoff that this election will be just
as unpredictable as the election five years ago. He explained
that most rural Vidarbha voters told him that they would vote
for the Congress Party in the 2004 national elections, but to
his surprise, Shiv Sena won four and the BJP won six seats from
the region. He also noted that while the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance
captured all but one seat during the 2004 national election, the
coalition lost half of the seats during the Maharashtra state
assembly election held barely five months later.




11. (SBU) Jawandhiya opined that while Uddhav Thackery, the
general secretary of Shiv Sena, came to the region several
times, his party could not translate these successful rallies
into votes. Pandharipande predicted that the Shiv Sena would
hang onto its seats in Vidarbha, as Raj Thackery's Maharashtra
Navnirman Sena (MNS) does not have any influence in the region

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and would not pull many votes away from the Shiv Sena.
Neglected Marathi-speaking farmers might feel inclined to vote
for the Shiv Sena, he acknowledged. (Note: Vidarbha also has a
large Hindi-speaking minority. End Note.)



BSP a Spoiler for Both Congress and BJP?

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12. (SBU) Assessing caste politics in the region, Jawandhiya
expected that Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) would not win
any seats, but would draw crucial votes away from the Congress,
as it did in 2004. Jawandhiya and Maitra both cautioned,
though, that BSP stood to damage the BJP where both parties
fielded candidates from the same caste. (Note: Political
parties try to field candidates belonging to the
numerically-dominant caste in each constituency. The BSP,
therefore, may have eaten into the BJP's vote bank where their
candidates were of the same caste as the BJP candidate in the
same constituency. End Note.) According to Pandharipande,
Mayawati's BSP peaked in 2004 in Maharashtra, and its vote share
would decline in this election, with the Congress picking up its
former voters.



What Do Voters in Vidarbha Care About?

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13. (SBU) With a panoply of regional issues and problems, what
motivates the Vidarbha voter? A group of farmers in the Wardha
district in Vidarbha told Congenoff that they did not expect
much from the Lok Sabha elections, felt disconnected from
politicians, and did not vote based on government policies.
Nevertheless, the farmers admitted to Congenoffs that the UPA
government's loan waiver and the relief packages for the
Vidarbha farmers have helped ease their distress. They said
that they would have enjoyed a successful year if last year's
rainfall had been normal. When pressed to explain what they
wanted from the government, some asked for another loan waiver,
as soon as next year. Other farmers said that further increases
in the MSP for cotton would also help. Jawandhiya called for
government subsidies for non-irrigated farming, especially given
the unpredictability of rainfall. He believes that these
subsidies will help narrow the rural-urban divide, and also
bridge the gap between the rich sugarcane farmers of western
Maharashtra and the poor cotton farmers of Vidarbha. Most
farmers Congenoffs spoke to wished that the government would
simply purchase their land and pay them an annual stipend.




14. (SBU) Pandharipande described the national election as an
"issueless" election. In any case, Pandharipande claimed that
rural voters do not vote based on policies, platforms, or, even,
performance. He asserted that caste and sometimes financial or
alcoholic inducements are enough to sway rural voters. Although
the number of farmer suicides fell after the UPA's relief
packages and farm loan waiver program, Maitra noted that farmer
suicides is an ongoing problem and no political party made it an
issue in the election. Maitra added that voters in the eastern
Maharashtra region were disgusted with politicians generally and
felt neglected. He claimed that most farmers were not even
aware of government policies and as little as one liter of
alcohol or two kilograms of rice was enough to sway their vote.




Comment:


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15. (SBU) While the Congress-led UPA coalition has introduced
rural development programs to alleviate the problems of farmers
in Vidarbha, the results have been mixed. Years of neglect from
the state government - also a Congress-led coalition - have
compounded the region's problems. While the region gave its
vote to the BJP/Shiv Sena alliance in the last election, it
appears to have made little impact in the way the region is
governed. While discerning the motivations of the Indian voter
is always elusive, political observers and farmers acknowledge a
strong strain of ambivalence toward politicians in voter
attitudes. As a result, it appears that caste-based identity
politics and inducements work in these areas more than
issue-politics because rural voters often expect so little from
their political leaders. The confusing and somewhat
contradictory responses given by a group of farmers is a
reminder that voting attitudes are extremely hard to pin down,
and that many voters may ultimately decide whom to vote for a
day or two before election day; it may also explain why
political polling in India is so often wrong. Nevertheless,
pundits and pollsters seem to agree that whatever the strange
mix of motivations and sentiments, the Congress will come out
ahead in this troubled region. End Comment.
FOLMSBEE