Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09MUMBAI139
2009-04-01 09:47:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Consulate Mumbai
Cable title:  

BHARAT BALLOT 09: SHIV SENA HEADS TO LOK SABHA, STATE

Tags:  PGOV PTER PREL IN 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO6125
PP RUEHAST RUEHCI RUEHDBU RUEHLH RUEHNEH RUEHPW
DE RUEHBI #0139/01 0910947
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P R 010947Z APR 09
FM AMCONSUL MUMBAI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7068
INFO RUCNCLS/ALL SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA COLLECTIVE
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 0218
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 0109
RUEHMO/AMEMBASSY MOSCOW 0091
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 0146
RUEHRL/AMEMBASSY BERLIN 0025
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEIDN/DNI WASHINGTON DC
RUEHBI/AMCONSUL MUMBAI 2254
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 05 MUMBAI 000139 

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PTER PREL IN
SUBJECT: BHARAT BALLOT 09: SHIV SENA HEADS TO LOK SABHA, STATE
ASSEMBLY POLLS

REF: MUMBAI 130

MUMBAI 00000139 001.2 OF 005


Summary
-------

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 05 MUMBAI 000139

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PTER PREL IN
SUBJECT: BHARAT BALLOT 09: SHIV SENA HEADS TO LOK SABHA, STATE
ASSEMBLY POLLS

REF: MUMBAI 130

MUMBAI 00000139 001.2 OF 005


Summary
--------------


1. (U) The durable Hindu chauvinist political party, the Shiv
Sena is at a crucial point in its 43-year history. Founded
originally by the charismatic Bal Thackeray as an anti-migrant
and pro-Marathi party, it has evolved into one of the anchors of
the Hindu right. Through a combination of demographic and
economic change, succession questions, defections and splinter
parties, ideological challenges and its own poor record in
office, the Sena has arrived at a crossroads. Recent electoral
results point to the party's decline, but current leader Uddhav
Thackeray is attempting to reach new vote banks and redefine the
party in order to make gains in the upcoming Parliamentary and
Maharashtra Legislative Assembly elections in the spring and
fall of 2009, respectively. As he leads the party into this
election, Uddhav's challenges are to maintain a firm grip on the
party, limit the damage caused by his cousin and rival's
departure to set up his own party, and give the party a vision
to match the changing nature of Maharashtra's electorate. End
summary.

History and Ideology
--------------


2. (SBU) Bal Thackeray founded the Shiv Sena in 1966,
attracting educated Marathi-speaking, lower middle class youth
by pledging to protect their economic and cultural interests at
a time when Mumbai was fast becoming a cosmopolitan, diverse
city. (Note: "Shiv Sena" can be loosely translated as
Shivaji's soldiers. Shivaji was a 17th century, devout Hindu
military leader in modern-day Maharashtra who took on the Mughal
ruler Aurangzeb to lay the foundations of the Maratha Empire.
End Note.) The Sena has an authoritarian structure centered on
Thackeray, who expects complete obedience from his followers.
The Sena appealed to unemployed disaffected youth eager to take
back the streets through violence and intimidation. The Sena
has thrived on a regional sensibility, utilizing mass
propaganda, tactical violence, the provision of social services
and strike breaking to attract followers and effect its agenda.
The Shiv Sena's strongest attraction may be the perception that
it can provide benefits which the official machinery cannot.


3. (SBU) The Sena's first platform was to insist on a simple but

unworkable program: the reservation of 80 percent of lower
echelon white collar jobs and economic opportunities in
Maharashtra for Maharashtrians, and those who speak Marathi, the
fabled "Sons of the Soil." To generate support and momentum,
Thackeray initially targeted South Indians, since southerners
occupied middle class white collar clerical positions, often
encouraging his followers to use violence and intimidation.
Despite occasional political accommodations with a variety of
parties, the Sena has also been strongly anti-communist, and was
used by the Congress and local industrialists to break the back
of the communist labor unions in Mumbai in the 1970s and 1980s.
Along with other Hindu right organizations and political
parties, he has repeatedly opposed caste reservations, an
unusual stance given the Sena's large "Other Backward Caste"
(OBC) support base.


4. (SBU) However, as the salience of the Marathi "Sons of the
Soil" card faded in the 1970s and 1980s due to a changing
economy and diminished Marathi demographics in Mumbai, the Shiv
Sena turned increasingly to pro-Hindu and anti-Muslim themes in
order to widen its base and reach out to other, mainly rural,
parts of Maharashtra. Thackeray maintained that Hinduism should
be the dominant culture of India and adopted the BJP's slogan,
"Say it with pride that I am Hindu." The Sena showed its
strength in the 1992-92 communal riots which shook Mumbai
following the destruction of the Babri Masjid in Ayodhya in
which over 900 people were killed in Mumbai, a majority Muslim.
Thackeray encouraged his followers to attack Muslims and Muslim
communities, and the Shiv Sainiks were protected in some
instances by sympathetic police and government officials. Many
credit the Hindu-Muslim polarization after the riots with
bringing a Shiv Sena/Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government in
the state elections in 1995.


MUMBAI 00000139 002.2 OF 005


Electoral Map
--------------


5. (U) In the Lok Sabha, the Shiv Sena currently holds 12 out
of the 48 seats from Maharashtra. In the upcoming Lok Sabha
elections, the Sena will contest 22 seats and its partner, the
BJP, will stand for the other 26. In the Maharashtra
Legislative Assembly, the BJP and Shiv Sena form the main
opposition block. Together, the two parties hold 116 (54 BJP,
62 Sena) out of the total 288 seats. New state elections are
due in September/October 2009. In Mumbai, where the BJP and
Shiv Sena have ruled the city for the past 16 years, the two
parties account for 112 of 227 municipal corporation seats.

High Profile Defections and Succession Crisis Weaken Party
-------------- --------------


6. (SBU) Since 2005, the Shiv Sena has endured a series of key
defections and a succession battle, all of which have weakened
the party. First, veteran Shiv Sena leader and former
Maharashtra Chief Minister Narayan Rane broke with the party and
eventually joined the rival Congress party. According to
interlocutors, Rane's dissatisfaction with the Sena had little
to do with ideological or policy issues. Instead, it was driven
by a personality clash between Rane and Shiv Sena working
president Uddhav Thackeray, the son of Bal Thackeray. The
second blow came in late 2005 with the defection of Raj
Thackeray, Bal Thackeray's charismatic nephew. Raj Thackeray
formed his own party in 2006, the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena
(MNS),discussed septel. Raj Thackeray cited his on-going
frustrations with his cousin and long-standing rival, Uddhav, as
his reason for leaving the party. Calling his cousin an
ineffectual leader surrounded by cronies, Raj Thackeray said his
rival was responsible for Shiv Sena's poor showing in the 2004
state elections, for the disastrous result in a 2005 by-election
in Maharashtra and for several high profile defections.


7. (SBU) The rivalry between Raj and Uddhav had been a
long-simmering source of tension within Shiv Sena. Bal
Thackeray has dominated the Shiv Sena since its founding. With
a charismatic personality and florid rhetorical style, not to
mention a keen sense of the dramatic, Thackeray was able to
maintain the unquestioned loyalty of his Shiv Sainiks. In
recent years, Bal's health has deteriorated, and this may be his
last election. He has limited his involvement in
decision-making and party activities, and he ceded nearly all
day-to-day authority to Uddhav as executive president in 2002.
However, many in the Sena viewed Uddhav Thackeray as an
introverted, reclusive leader lacking in the political and
leadership skills and charisma of his father or of his cousin
Raj.


8. (SBU) Beyond Uddhav and Raj, however, the Sena appears to
have no strong leadership alternatives. Bal's leadership style
brooked little challenge to his authority and he often pushed
rising popular leaders, such as Chhagan Bhujbal, out before they
challenged him. (Note: Bhujbal, a prominent OBC leader,
defected to the Congress, then the Nationalist Congress Party
(NCP),and is now the state deputy chief minister. End Note.)
Former state Shiv Sena Chief Minister Manohar Joshi has been
largely relegated to a supporting role, after losing a Lok Sabha
race in 2004. According to interlocutors, Bal's failure to
develop younger leaders or even mid-level party managers left a
void in the party organization and weakened its long-term
prospects.

Uddhav Thackery Takes Charge
-------------- --------------


9. (SBU) Despite his uninspiring public image, many praise
Uddhav for his strong organizational skills and sober
leadership, and his attempts to expand the Sena's base.
Thackeray was praised for fielding a fresh slate of candidates
in the 2007 Mumbai municipal elections, which was undoubtedly a
factor in the Sena's narrow victory. Political observers agree
that Thackeray cleansed the candidate list mainly to reward his
closest supporters, yet he and the Shiv Sena astutely sold the
action as a move to clean up the corporation. According to
Maharashtra Congress spokesman Anant Gadgil, while Uddhav is not

MUMBAI 00000139 003.2 OF 005


a natural orator, he is a good organizer and the seasoned
leadership has stayed with the Sena; he added "Raj just has
boys," the young, street-level operatives working for him at the
MNS. As Kishor Joshi of the NCP told Congenoffs, Uddhav has
also tried to modernize the Sena by bringing more educated
people into the fold and "growing the organization in a decent
fashion." For example, in 2008 he appointed Maharashtra Times
Editor Bharat Raut to the Rajya Sabha in Delhi. Raut claims
that he was surprised at this honor, and surmised that the Sena
wanted more educated and English-speaking parliamentarians who
can represent the Sena in the more sophisticated parliamentary
culture.


10. (SBU) Though Uddhav and the leadership want to redefine the
party and lessen its reputation for, and use of, violence,
interlocutors told Congenoffs that Sainiks who constitute the
bedrock of the Sena's support continue to press for "direct
action," the Sena specialty. The Sena has historically grown by
attracting youth through displays of strength. Now that the
Sena under Uddhav has begun to devalue violence - perhaps
because many of the roughest elements have left for the MNS -
potential members may turn to other parties, according to
Marathi journalist Nilu Damle. In addition, observers expect
that Uddhav will struggle to attract new followers in the
absence of his father's charismatic presence. Nevertheless,
with his father still alive, Sena followers will likely continue
to honor his wish that Uddhav lead the party. As Damle pointed
out, no one is left to challenge Uddhav within the Sena after
the defections of Rane and Raj. The 2007 city election result
solidified his hold on the party and his aspiration to be the
legitimate political heir to his father. Damle commented,
"Every day that the old man is alive, he solidifies Uddhav's
position. If he dies, say, more than a year from now, Uddhav
would be a strong leader in his own right, and may not need the
support of other senior leaders."

Long Term Political and Demographic Shifts Challenge Sena's
Future
--------------


11. (SBU) The Shiv Sena is struggling publicly and privately
with a number of other significant problems. Former Shiv Sena
leader Narayan Rane's huge victory over his Shiv Sena opponent
in the November 2005 Malvan district by-election race for the
state legislature appeared to have precipitated a fight over the
direction of the party. Few of Shiv Sena's current leaders have
reliable contacts in the coastal Konkan region, and Rane's win,
his dominance of politics in the Konkan, and his prominent
position in the current Congress-NCP state government will make
it difficult for Shiv Sena to maintain its control over the
area, which was once an impregnable Shiv Sena bastion.


12. (SBU) Broader political and cultural shifts, as well as
changing local demographics, represent the greatest threat to
Shiv Sena's long-term relevance as a political movement in
Maharashtra. The Shiv Sena's most significant electoral success
was its victory in the 1995 Maharashtra state assembly
elections, in part through its successful exploitation of the
Hindutva (Hindu nationalism) message, in coalition with the BJP,
following Hindu-Muslim communal violence in Mumbai in the early
1990's. The late 1990's, however, represented the apex of
Hindutva's appeal to voters in Maharashtra, as development,
governance, and other issues have also crowded the landscape of
voter concerns. Local BJP Vice President and Spokesperson Atul
Shah told Congenoffs that the Maharashtra branch of his party
"no longer talked about Hindutva that much," as economic and
development issues played better with the electorate. Without
galvanizing events such as the 1992-93 Mumbai communal riots,
Hindutva's ability to draw supporters will continue to be
limited.


13. (SBU) Even worse for Shiv Sena, the "Sons of the Soil"
movement of Marathi speakers, the original driving force behind
the party's creation, appear to be losing ground to demographic
shifts. When the Sena was founded in 1966, Marathi speakers
made up about 40 percent of Mumbai's residents, but now
represent about 22 percent. Each year, more migrant laborers
from elsewhere in India arrive, diluting the urban
concentrations of Marathi speakers, and making it increasingly

MUMBAI 00000139 004.2 OF 005


difficult for the Sena to keep up with other broader-based
parties. In the rural, Marathi-speaking areas of Maharashtra
where migrants are few, this issue has not gained much traction.
Indeed, Uddhav had begun to quietly court migrants from Uttar
Pradesh and Bihar who make up large vote blocks in some
constituencies around Mumbai when Raj Thackeray launched his
attack on north Indian migrants (see septel). Raj's astute
political thrust added a new competitor for the pro-Marathi
vote, and forced Uddhav to walk a fine line between assuring the
migrants that they were safe in Maharashtra and appealing to his
traditional pro-Marathi vote bank.


14. (SBU) According to MP Raut, the Shiv Sena can only grow
"where it can find and exploit fissures." In a meeting with
Congenoffs, Uddhav raised the possibility of reviving the
decades-old controversy over Belgaum province, across the border
in Karnataka border, where there is a large Marathi-speaking
minority. He said that the current BJP government in Karnataka
has restricted the rights of Marathi speakers there, but
admitted the demand for this district's inclusion in Maharashtra
would obviously cause friction with the Sena's BJP alliance
partners. Raut told Congenoff that his party intends to
campaign against Congress's record on preventing farmer suicides
in eastern Maharashtra, its failure to add capacity to the
electricity grid, and its poor record on law and order in the
wake of communal riots, the July 2006 Mumbai train blasts and
the November 2008 terrorist attacks.

Corruption and Conflict While in Office
--------------


15. (SBU) Another liability for the Sena is the negative
perception of its performance at the head of the ruling
coalition in the state in the 1990s. Although the Sena had
campaigned in part on a clean government platform with its BJP
alliance partner, once in office, observers agreed that the Sena
engaged in rapacious corruption unseen in any previous
government. An industrialist told Congenoff that the corruption
and extortion from Sena gangs had gotten so bad, a group of
industrialists demanded that it stop or they would go public
about their complaints. (Note: The executive of a
then-fledgling airline told Congenoff that Bal insisted on
keeping the executive's new car when he drove it to Bal's house
for a meeting. The executive gave Bal the keys, and took a taxi
home. End Note.) The Sena scrapped its promise of 2.7 million
jobs and subsidized meals for the poor, and did little to
develop the eastern Maharashtra region of Vidarbha. With little
to claim credit for and disagreements on several issues, the BJP
began to distance itself from its alliance partner while in
state government. As Marathi journalist Sachin Parab told
Congenoffs, "The Sena and BJP have been fighting since the day
they came to power."

Raj Rising: The Impact of the MNS
--------------


16. (SBU) Raj Thackeray's party will likely bleed some support
from the Shiv Sena. As Sena MP Raut told Congenoffs, the MNS is
not likely to win any seats, but it could very well "spoil our
game." Congress spokesman Gadgil also told Congenoffs the MNS
might pull votes away from the BJP and Shiv Sena, which could
help Congress. According to Raut, the MNS has the potential to
engineer the Sena's defeat in as many as five constituencies.
(Note: Many observers and political leaders Media reports
contend that Congress has nurtured the MNS in order to diminish
the Sena, much in the same way it used the Sena to break the
communist unions in an earlier era. End note.) Parab
maintained, however, that Raj is still mainly a media creation;
while he is better known around the state than the current chief
minister, it will be all but impossible to translate this name
recognition into votes with the MNS's current low level of
organization.

Comment: Sena at a Crossroads
-------------- --------------


17. (SBU) In this Parliamentary election, the Sena is struggling
to find a new relevance, as both voter preferences and ethnic
compositions change. The Shiv Sena has endured many challenges

MUMBAI 00000139 005.2 OF 005


in its 40 year history, including defections, bad alliances, and
electoral defeats. The Sena and MNS are now fighting to become
the champions of a shrinking pie of Marathi votes, the Sena's
crucial but diminishing vote bank. As he leads the party into
this election, Uddhav's challenges are to maintain a firm grip
on the party, limit the damage caused by Raj's departure, and
give the party a vision to match the changing nature of
Maharashtra's electorate. Courting, rather than attacking,
north Indian migrant workers may prove a better strategy in a
city like Mumbai, where such migrants are becoming an
ever-growing political force. Playing the Hindutva card in
western India is also becoming less appealing to an urban
electorate more interested in its own economic advancement.
This election will determine whether Uddhav's attempts to make
further inroads into rural areas, and court new vote banks have
been successful. Many observers maintain that the party is
shrinking, as Bal's departure from the scene and demographics
work against it. However, even in the absence of a coherent
ideology, the Sena's knack for re-defining the issues and
focusing on local problems may yet serve it well. End Comment.
FOLMSBEE