MOSCOW CITY DUMA POSTPONES ELECTIONS TO 2010

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MOSCOW 000951

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM PINR RS
SUBJECT: MOSCOW CITY DUMA POSTPONES ELECTIONS TO 2010


1. (SBU) This message is sensitive but unclassified; please
protect accordingly.


2. (SBU) Summary: On March 31, the Moscow City Duma members
postponed elections to their own assembly from the
originally-planned October 2009 date to March 2010 based on
Russia's federal law "On Basic Guarantees of Electoral
Rights." Delaying the elections is a precursor to other
changes to the Moscow City Duma rules, which could, in
theory, improve the registration and campaigning processes.
The extension until early 2010 will, incidentally, legitimize
a longer term for Moscow's Mayor Yuriy Luzhkov. End Summary.


3. (SBU) On March 31, the Moscow City Duma agreed to move
its own elections from October 2009 to March 2010 based on
Russia's federal law "On Basic Guarantees of Electoral
Rights." Moscow City government officials told us that
Article 37.2 of this law allows for flexibility concerning
the exact election day. Deputy Chairman of the Moscow City
Duma and Head of the United Russia faction, Andrey Metelskiy,
assured us April 2 that it is legal to hold the elections in
either October 2009 or March 2010.

Why Controlling Moscow's Legislature Matters
--------------


4. (SBU) Election of its members to Moscow's legislature
bolsters the image of political parties in Russian regions
and enables them to exploit the benefits of publicity and
concrete action in future election campaigns throughout the
country. Moscow City Duma deputies are able to influence
federal institutions by creating city legislation and by
building and using close contacts with the federal government
for their local Moscow constituencies. In addition to being
a large city, Moscow City and St. Petersburg are each among
the 83 federal subjects, putting them on par with constituent
federal republics and regions, and making Moscow City Duma
seats particularly attractive prizes for politicians and
parties.

Current Voting Rules
--------------


5. (SBU) Under current law, the Moscow City Duma elections
have a mixed voting system with both single mandate and
proportional voting. United Russia dominates the 35-member
Moscow City Duma while opposition groups have minimal
representation. Deputies elected to fill the 15 single
mandate seats, representing Moscow's voting districts, all
hail from United Russia. In addition, United Russia
dominates the 20 proportional seats with 14 candidates, who
serve alongside only four Communist (KPRF) and two Yabloko
opposition party members. Independent candidates are allowed
to run, but they must do so under the umbrella of a political
party. An amendment to the federal election law currently
under discussion, which would also apply to regions, would no
longer require candidates to pay a registration fee, though
they would still need to obtain voter signatures in order to
run. However, political parties with seats in the (national)
State Duma, are not required to collect signatures in order
to nominate candidates for regional assemblies. (Note:
Currently only United Russia, Just Russia, the KPRF, and
Liberal Democratic Party of Russia are represented in the
State Duma. End Note.) If a party has no representation in
the State Duma, Article 34 of the Moscow Electoral Code
dictates that single mandate candidates must collect
signatures of one percent of voters, on average 5,000
signatures, from the respective districts. In order to field
candidates for seats distributed in accordance with the
proportional system, a party that is not in the State Duma
must collect one percent of the number of Moscow voters, a
number which fluctuates, but is typically around 70,000
signatures.

Postponing the Elections to March 2010
--------------


6. (SBU) Metelskiy maintained that postponement of elections
was necessary in light of the economic crisis. According to
him, Mayor Luzhkov's priority is to use city resources for
social support and essential government payments during the
current crisis. Metelskiy estimated that the Moscow City
Duma elections would cost 1.5 billion rubles (about USD 44
million),and that the government would prefer to defer this
large expense. He reiterated that all decisions related to
the elections were legal, unlike in 1995 when the Moscow City
Duma deputies extended their term for two years and a
subsequent lawsuit ended with a ruling that the Duma had
acted illegally. On April 8, Lilia Shibanova, Chairman of
the Regional Civic Organization in Defense of Democratic

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Rights and Liberties (GOLOS),told us that since the last
Moscow City Duma elections were held on December 5, 2005, it
makes sense to postpone the elections in this case. If the
elections were held in October 2009, that would result in the
Deputies' terms being shortened slightly from the normal
length of four years.

Impact of Reforms on the March 2010 Elections
--------------


7. (SBU) Some election reforms look promising in terms of
creating a more democratic voting structure. Shibanova told
us that the Moscow City Duma will need to reduce the
threshold for parties from ten to seven percent to correspond
to the federal election law threshold. While a lower
threshold means, theoretically, that more parties might win
seats, she noted that that the KPRF, likely to exceed the
seven percent barrier in Moscow, might gain additional seats,
though Just Russia could draw some votes away from the
Communists. In the 2005 elections, 10 parties were
registered, but six failed to pass the 10 percent barrier.
LDPR, the only party of the six still in existence, received
eight percent. Shibanova predicted that in 2010 there would
be little difference in comparison with the present City Duma
make-up.


8. (SBU) If the Moscow voting system were to become strictly
proportional, prospects for opposition candidates might be
improved further. The six deputies from opposition party
members in the current Moscow City Duma won their seats
through the proportional system, not through single mandate
voting. Shibanova thought that the reforms lowering the
threshold and implementing a strict proportional system would
be a step forward and would have a positive impact on the
registration and campaign processes. But, there is also
concern that some of the proposed changes to the Moscow City
Duma election process could play out negatively in the
planned March 2010 elections. Shibanova told us that experts
and politicians have been discussing rumors about changing
the Electoral Code before the March 2010 elections in order
to extend the term of office for Moscow City Duma deputies
from four to five years. (Note: In December 2008, Medvedev
signed an amendment to the Russian Constitution extending the
term of State Duma deputies from four to five years. End
Note.)

Opposition Parties as Puppets
--------------


9. (SBU) While opposition parties in general may have an
opportunity to gain seats, the experience of Yabloko
demonstrates potential difficulty for opposition parties to
be represented in the March 2010 Moscow City Duma. Yabloko's
Chairman and Moscow City Duma member Sergei Mitrokhin told us
March 27 that he thought Yabloko would be pushed out of the
Moscow City Duma, since Moscow Mayor Yuriy Luzhkov would
prevent Yabloko from running in the next elections. He
stated that he was not sure if Yabloko would even participate
since the party will need to collect a yet undetermined
number of signatures. Mitrokhin was particularly concerned
that Luzhkov would retaliate against Yabloko for having
spoken out about corruption involving real estate in Moscow,
as well as for having accused the Moscow City government of
using its budget for illegal and non-transparent operations.
Mitrokhin told us that he believed Luzhkov will engineer
elections so as to install in the City Duma a "quiet"
opposition party, such as the Kremlin-backed, pro-business
Right Cause party.

Manipulation and Back Room Deals
--------------


10. (SBU) Despite any positive reforms and assistance for
opposition parties, independent observers say chances are
slim that Moscow City Duma's elections under Luzhkov will be
fair and transparent. According to Shibanova, "back room
deals will be made prior to the elections," and "the
elections do not mean anything. This is a strong vertical
administration, so the elections do not matter in Moscow,
which provides lots of resources for United Russia."
Shibanova described a Moscow City push for more electronic
voting machines. She explained how it is possible to program
electronic scanners to get a desired outcome and that actual
voting re-counts are not conducted during this type of
voting. Finally, Shibanova cited her concern that many
unregistered voters in Moscow are not permanent residents,
but the military issues Certificates of Temporary Residence
for them to vote. These certificates cannot be tracked and
people are eligible to vote after living in Moscow for only
six months. In short, as long as Luzhkov is in power,

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Shibanova concluded, he will ensure that the Moscow City Duma
elections run his way.

Comment
--------------


11. (SBU) Postponing the Moscow City Duma elections could
also extend United Russia's control and, incidentally,
Luzhkov's term in office. Based on the March 2010 elections,
the majority party in the Moscow City Duma will not suggest a
new mayor to the president until 2011. Metelskiy told us
that all possibilities are open concerning Luzhkov's fate,
but for now, everyone expects him to maintain stability in
Moscow during the economic crisis. Luzhkov may be happy for
all the help he can get in light of an April 8 Levada Center
survey, which revealed that his popularity among Muscovites
is down to only 41 percent. While new legislative measures
appear to be window dressing, they could potentially enable
Luzhkov and United Russia to exert great control and limit
challenges to their monopoly on power.
BEYRLE