MOSCOW REACTS POSITIVELY TO OBAMA-MEDVEDEV MEETING

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSCOW 000850

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SUBJECT: MOSCOW REACTS POSITIVELY TO OBAMA-MEDVEDEV MEETING


1. (SBU) Summary. Moscow reacted positively to the first meeting of
President Obama and President Medvedev in London on April 1. While
cautioning that issues such as missile defense and NATO enlargement
remained divisive, most officials and press commentators noted a
new, "positive spirit," and expressed the hope that the new tone in
bilateral relations and the prospects of reaching agreement on a
post-START accord would open the way to working on the more
difficult issues. They stressed the pragmatic approach of the two
Presidents and highlighted the importance of the Joint Statement on
a post-START Agreement. A few commentators were less optimistic,
emphasizing that the U.S. had not withdrawn its plans to deploy
missile defense elements in eastern Europe and stressing the need to
link missile defense and a new treaty on strategic offensive arms.
End summary.

A New Spirit, A New Pragmatism
--------------


2. (SBU) Following the London meeting, Duma International Relations
Committee Chair Konstantin Kosachev (who participated in the
meeting) told the press that the main outcome of the summit was that
it "broke the inertia of negative thinking" in the bilateral
relationship. Characterizing the meeting as "very substantive and
pragmatic," Kosachev said both sides "demonstrated a readiness to
find common ground in personal relations and in bilateral
relations." Federation Council Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman
Mikhail Margelov said that while one meeting could not "restore
partnership and friendship," the spirit of the Presidents'
discussion and the results of the dialogue showed that "both sides
have begun moving toward each other." He noted the most important
result was that "contradictions over Iran have been smoothed out."


3. (SBU) Noting that the London meeting would help "revive the
positive elements on the bilateral agenda, former Deputy Foreign
Minister Andrey Fedorov said that the "debut was good because it was
a working meeting, not a political show. As Russian-American
relations become more pragmatic, they will become more effective,"
he stressed. He also said the positive nature of the event gave
hope that a new arms reduction treaty could be reached. Aleksey
Malashenko of the Moscow Carnegie Center predicted that the level of
"ideological anti-Americanism" in Russia would decrease.

4. (SBU) Several newspapers confirmed mid-level MFA comments to us
that Russian officials were pleased with the results of the meeting.
Official Rossiyskaya Gazeta reported that "the debut was successful
enough. Medvedev and Obama confirmed the 'resetting' of relations
between the two countries," and noted that "Moscow was rather
optimistic about Washington's policy..." Daily Vremya Novostey
commented that "one could see that members of the Russian
delegation, outwardly reserved in their comments on the outcome of
the meeting, were very pleased with it."
A New START Treaty, An Open Door to Other Issues
-------------- ---


5. (U) Many commentators said the most important result of the
Presidents' summit was the agreement to start negotiations on a new
strategic arms reduction treaty. Independent journal Nezavisimaya
Gazeta commented that the green light to start disarmament talks was
"the main practical result, and that success in that area would give
a serious impulse to cooperation elsewhere." Moscow and Washington
appeared "ready to compromise."

6. (SBU) Sergey Rogov, Director of the U.S. and Canada Institute,
said the prospect of reaching agreement on a new accord by the end
of the year had "become real." Noting that such a treaty would
likely not be ready by July, he posited that the two Presidents
could sign a framework agreement at that time, which could then be
finalized by December. Such a treaty could allow the two sides to
"find solutions to other issues, including missile defense (MD),the
Iranian nuclear problem, and the joint fight against the Taliban and
al-Qaeda," Rogov suggested.


7. (SBU) Arms control experts, retired Generals Viktor Yesin and
Vladimir Dvorkin, agreed that the decision to pursue negotiations on
a new treaty to reduce the number of strategic offensive arms was
positive, but cautioned that there were still many difficult issues
to be resolved between the two sides. Noting that Russia and the
U.S. would be "quite able" to reach agreement to reduce the number
of warheads to 1300-1500 each, Dvorkin nonetheless emphasized the
problem of resolving issues related to warheads in storage and
"upload potential," as well as whether and how to count conventional
warheads on strategic missiles. Yesin more conservatively cited
1700 warheads as a realistic number at which to aim, but emphasized
that the number needed to be linked to a potential MD deployment in
Europe. If the U.S. did not deploy MD, Russia could reduce the
number of warheads to 1000, he argued, but added that in such a

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case, France and the UK should be brought into the process.


8. (SBU) Fedor Lukyanov, Editor-in-Chief of Global Affairs magazine,
also cautioned that after such a long period of confrontation
between the two sides, especially the disagreement over MD, it was
not to be expected that any breakthroughs would have occurred. But,
he hailed the focus of the London talks on non-irritant issues, and
agreed that the "gradual warming" in bilateral relations would allow
both sides to start working on "more complicated issues, such as
Georgia and MD."

A Few Naysayers
--------------


9. (SBU) A few commentators were more pessimistic, contending that
the meeting had not resulted in changes in the U.S. position on MD
and other difficult issues. Vladimir Anokhin, VP of the Academy of
Geopolitical Sciences argued the U.S. would not change its position
on MD, and its recent statements were "just to make Moscow's
position more flexible and gain more economic results at the G20
summit." Duma IR Committee Member Semen Bogdasarov also noted that
despite U.S. willingness to begin a dialogue with Iran, the U.S. was
not prepared to give up its MD plans. Former head of the MOD
International Relations Directorate, retired General Leonid Ivashov,
also warned against moving too fast to reach a post-START agreement,
insisting it needed to be linked to U.S. MD plans and should be part
of a "comprehensive analysis of strategic military relations between
Russia and the U.S." He added, however, that START should not be
extended as it was outdated and had been "ruined by the Americans"
by U.S. withdrawal from the ABM Treaty.

Comment
--------------


10. (SBU) The meeting between the Presidents is seen as continuing
the positive tone set by the Vice-President's call to push the
"reset" button on the relationship and carried on by the exchange of
letters and the meetings between the Secretary and FM Lavrov.
Comparatively less attention has been given to the announcement that
the President will come to Moscow in July, perhaps because this
possibility has already been in the Russian press for a few weeks.
Moscow analysts will be looking for evidence that the "new tone and
spirit" are being translated into concrete action and results.

BEYRLE