Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09MOSCOW759
2009-03-27 05:50:00
UNCLASSIFIED
Embassy Moscow
Cable title:
BELARUSIAN SWT 2008 VALIDATION STUDY
how-toVZCZCXRO1482 RR RUEHDBU RUEHLN RUEHSK RUEHVK RUEHYG DE RUEHMO #0759/01 0860550 ZNR UUUUU ZZH R 270550Z MAR 09 FM AMEMBASSY MOSCOW TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2576 RUEHSK/AMEMBASSY MINSK INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE RUEHWR/AMEMBASSY WARSAW 2386 RUEHKW/AMCONSUL KRAKOW 0014 RUEHRA/AMEMBASSY RIGA 5417 RUEHTL/AMEMBASSY TALLINN 2758 RUEHVL/AMEMBASSY VILNIUS 3165
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MOSCOW 000759
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: KFRD CVIS CPAS CMGT ASEC PGOV BO RS
SUBJECT: BELARUSIAN SWT 2008 VALIDATION STUDY
REF: 08 VILNIUS 0125
MOSCOW 00000759 001.2 OF 003
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MOSCOW 000759
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: KFRD CVIS CPAS CMGT ASEC PGOV BO RS
SUBJECT: BELARUSIAN SWT 2008 VALIDATION STUDY
REF: 08 VILNIUS 0125
MOSCOW 00000759 001.2 OF 003
1. (SBU) Summary: According to a recent validation study of 2008
Belarusian Summer Work and Travel (SWT) participants, 15 percent of
students did not depart the United States at the conclusion of the
program. This figure equals the percentage of students who did not
return after the 2007 program (reftel). Post found clear trends
among the non-return data which point to higher risk of non-return
in
certain age groups, second-time SWT participants, universities from
outside of Minsk, and a few travel agencies. Post will incorporate
this data into adjudications of 2009 Belarusian SWT applicants. In
2009 2,500 Belarusian students are expected to apply for the SWT
program. End Summary.
Fewer Applicants Than 2007
--------------
2. (SBU) Since March 2008 when the Government of Belarus mandated
the
departure of most American staff at Embassy Minsk, Moscow has
accepted Belarusian SWT applicants. In 2008, Moscow consular
officers interviewed approximately 1,792 Belarusian students who
worked with seven SWT providers in Belarus. Of the 1,792 students
interviewed, 1,250 were issued visas, a 70 percent approval rate.
For the same program in 2007, Embassy Minsk interviewed 2,450
students and issued 1,335, a 54 percent approval rate. Embassy
Moscow attributes the decline in overall 2008 SWT Belarusian
participants to the expense of traveling to Moscow for visa
processing. Many participants apparently opted out of the program
because of the added expense. (Note: This cable does not include
the 521 J-1 SWT applicants interviewed in Minsk before the staff
reduction took effect. Of the 521 applicants interviewed 169 were
issued, a 32 percent approval rate. None of these applicants were
included in the validation study. End Note.)
Survey Methodology
--------------
3. (U) Working with the Fraud Prevention Units (FPU) in Moscow and
Minsk, and Moscow?s DHS - CIS Office, all Belarusian SWT applicants
issued visas were checked through the DHS Arrival and Departure
Information System (ADIS). Those with confirmed departures were
considered to have completed their summer program and were not
further examined. Those with no departure records, with pending
Adjustment of Status, or who had adjusted to B1 status with
departure
date before March 1, 2009 were contacted by FPU Minsk, who verified
the applicant's status in the United States.
4. (SBU) The results showed that 1,062 students (or 85 percent) had
confirmed departures from the United States. Of the remaining 188
students, 130 (or 10.4 percent) had no departure records, and the
remaining 58 (or 4.6 percent) had either adjusted status or had an
adjustment of status pending with DHS. Of those who had an approved
Adjustment of Status the breakdown is as follows:
9 Extension of J1 status
8 B1
16 F1
3 H2B
Of the 16 students on F-1 status, a SEVIS check revealed that 15 of
the 16 students fifteen were registered "in status" at their chosen
academic institution. Of the students called by FPU Minsk in the
validation study, four were not listed at their reported university
and may have used fraudulent university documents to facilitate
their
travel to the United States.
Overstay Demographics
--------------
5. (SBU) The non-return rates for male and female students were
MOSCOW 00000759 002.2 OF 003
almost equal (14 percent and 15 percent, respectively).
Continuing a long-standing trend, older applicants (and, thus,
further along in their university education) were more likely not to
return to Belarus.
Year of Birth Non-Return Rate (percent)
-------------- --------------
1982-84 24 (Issued 8 ? Non Return 2)
1985 32 (Issued 29 ? Non Return 9)
1986 23 (Issued 183 ? Non Return 43)
1987 14 (Issued 480 ? Non Return 69)
1988 13 (Issued 427 ? Non Return 56)
1989-90 8 (Issued 124 ? Non Return 10)
6. (SBU) In addition, applicants with prior J-1 visas were
one-and-a-
half times more likely not to return than first time SWT applicants.
According to survey results, 27 percent of prior J-1 SWT
participants
failed to depart the United States as compared to 12.8 percent for
first- time participants. Applicants with prior J-1 visas were also
more likely to legally adjust status than first timers. Applicants
with prior J-1 visas composed 15 percent of issuances but consisted
of over one third (34 percent) of all pending / approved Adjustments
of status.
Belarusian SWT Agencies
--------------
7. (SBU) In 2008, there were seven SWT agencies that serviced the
Belarusian market. The following table breaks down non-return
rates
by agency for the past two SWT seasons:
Agency 2008 Non Return Rate(percent) 2007 Non Return
Rate(percent)
-------------- --------------
--------------
Discovery 0 Not Active
EVI Group 10 20
Latvian Center 12 11 (DBA IEC in 2009)
Rayet Plus 33 25
Star Travel 13 22
Universe 24 11
YTC 16 14 (DBA IEC in 2007)
(Note: In between the 2007-2008 SWT seasons one agency,
International Exchange Center (IEC),changed their name to Youth
Travel Center (YTC). A second agency, Latvian Exchange Center (LEC)
seized upon the opportunity and renamed themselves International
Exchange Center (IEC) and will use that name in the 2009 season.
End
Note.)
Belarusian Universities
--------------
8. (SBU) In 2008, SWT participants from the more prestigious
universities in Minsk (e.g., Belarus State University, Minsk State
Linguistic University, and Belarus State Economic University)
continued to have a lower non-return rate than universities outside
of the capital. This supports the assumption that students from
Minsk feel that they have better economic prospects and are more
inclined to return to Belarus at the end of the SWT program than
students from other regions of the country.
Selected Universities Non Return Rate
(percent)
-------------- --------------
Belarus State University (Minsk, Minsk region) 11
Minsk State Linguistic University (Minsk, Minsk region) 15
Belarus State Economic University (Minsk, Minsk region) 15
Gomel State University (Gomel, Gomel region) 23
Mozyr State Pedagogical University (Mozyr, Gomel region) 50
Baranovichi State University (Baranovichi, Brest region) 67
MOSCOW 00000759 003.2 OF 003
Many of the students attending university in Minsk are actually from
the regions but through talent and/or connections attend university
in the capital.
Comment: Looking Ahead to SWT 2009
--------------
9. (SBU) Again in 2009, Embassy Moscow will accept applications from
Belarusian SWT participants. To date we have received 873
applications. We anticipate the total number of applicants for 2009
to be approximately 2,500. Belarusian SWT applicants are
particularly challenging to adjudicate because they traditionally
have excellent English skills, good grades at university, prior
international travel to neighboring EU countries, and parents with
professional jobs. In order to refine the adjudication standards of
Belarusian applicants, Post this year requires all applicants to
have
their year of study in a specific data field in the NIV DS-156
application. Also, Consular officers are making more detailed
interview notes mentioning details like applicant's prior
international travel and home town. Armed with this data, Post will
be able to further refine the profile of a non-return SWT applicant.
End comment.
BEYRLE
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: KFRD CVIS CPAS CMGT ASEC PGOV BO RS
SUBJECT: BELARUSIAN SWT 2008 VALIDATION STUDY
REF: 08 VILNIUS 0125
MOSCOW 00000759 001.2 OF 003
1. (SBU) Summary: According to a recent validation study of 2008
Belarusian Summer Work and Travel (SWT) participants, 15 percent of
students did not depart the United States at the conclusion of the
program. This figure equals the percentage of students who did not
return after the 2007 program (reftel). Post found clear trends
among the non-return data which point to higher risk of non-return
in
certain age groups, second-time SWT participants, universities from
outside of Minsk, and a few travel agencies. Post will incorporate
this data into adjudications of 2009 Belarusian SWT applicants. In
2009 2,500 Belarusian students are expected to apply for the SWT
program. End Summary.
Fewer Applicants Than 2007
--------------
2. (SBU) Since March 2008 when the Government of Belarus mandated
the
departure of most American staff at Embassy Minsk, Moscow has
accepted Belarusian SWT applicants. In 2008, Moscow consular
officers interviewed approximately 1,792 Belarusian students who
worked with seven SWT providers in Belarus. Of the 1,792 students
interviewed, 1,250 were issued visas, a 70 percent approval rate.
For the same program in 2007, Embassy Minsk interviewed 2,450
students and issued 1,335, a 54 percent approval rate. Embassy
Moscow attributes the decline in overall 2008 SWT Belarusian
participants to the expense of traveling to Moscow for visa
processing. Many participants apparently opted out of the program
because of the added expense. (Note: This cable does not include
the 521 J-1 SWT applicants interviewed in Minsk before the staff
reduction took effect. Of the 521 applicants interviewed 169 were
issued, a 32 percent approval rate. None of these applicants were
included in the validation study. End Note.)
Survey Methodology
--------------
3. (U) Working with the Fraud Prevention Units (FPU) in Moscow and
Minsk, and Moscow?s DHS - CIS Office, all Belarusian SWT applicants
issued visas were checked through the DHS Arrival and Departure
Information System (ADIS). Those with confirmed departures were
considered to have completed their summer program and were not
further examined. Those with no departure records, with pending
Adjustment of Status, or who had adjusted to B1 status with
departure
date before March 1, 2009 were contacted by FPU Minsk, who verified
the applicant's status in the United States.
4. (SBU) The results showed that 1,062 students (or 85 percent) had
confirmed departures from the United States. Of the remaining 188
students, 130 (or 10.4 percent) had no departure records, and the
remaining 58 (or 4.6 percent) had either adjusted status or had an
adjustment of status pending with DHS. Of those who had an approved
Adjustment of Status the breakdown is as follows:
9 Extension of J1 status
8 B1
16 F1
3 H2B
Of the 16 students on F-1 status, a SEVIS check revealed that 15 of
the 16 students fifteen were registered "in status" at their chosen
academic institution. Of the students called by FPU Minsk in the
validation study, four were not listed at their reported university
and may have used fraudulent university documents to facilitate
their
travel to the United States.
Overstay Demographics
--------------
5. (SBU) The non-return rates for male and female students were
MOSCOW 00000759 002.2 OF 003
almost equal (14 percent and 15 percent, respectively).
Continuing a long-standing trend, older applicants (and, thus,
further along in their university education) were more likely not to
return to Belarus.
Year of Birth Non-Return Rate (percent)
-------------- --------------
1982-84 24 (Issued 8 ? Non Return 2)
1985 32 (Issued 29 ? Non Return 9)
1986 23 (Issued 183 ? Non Return 43)
1987 14 (Issued 480 ? Non Return 69)
1988 13 (Issued 427 ? Non Return 56)
1989-90 8 (Issued 124 ? Non Return 10)
6. (SBU) In addition, applicants with prior J-1 visas were
one-and-a-
half times more likely not to return than first time SWT applicants.
According to survey results, 27 percent of prior J-1 SWT
participants
failed to depart the United States as compared to 12.8 percent for
first- time participants. Applicants with prior J-1 visas were also
more likely to legally adjust status than first timers. Applicants
with prior J-1 visas composed 15 percent of issuances but consisted
of over one third (34 percent) of all pending / approved Adjustments
of status.
Belarusian SWT Agencies
--------------
7. (SBU) In 2008, there were seven SWT agencies that serviced the
Belarusian market. The following table breaks down non-return
rates
by agency for the past two SWT seasons:
Agency 2008 Non Return Rate(percent) 2007 Non Return
Rate(percent)
-------------- --------------
--------------
Discovery 0 Not Active
EVI Group 10 20
Latvian Center 12 11 (DBA IEC in 2009)
Rayet Plus 33 25
Star Travel 13 22
Universe 24 11
YTC 16 14 (DBA IEC in 2007)
(Note: In between the 2007-2008 SWT seasons one agency,
International Exchange Center (IEC),changed their name to Youth
Travel Center (YTC). A second agency, Latvian Exchange Center (LEC)
seized upon the opportunity and renamed themselves International
Exchange Center (IEC) and will use that name in the 2009 season.
End
Note.)
Belarusian Universities
--------------
8. (SBU) In 2008, SWT participants from the more prestigious
universities in Minsk (e.g., Belarus State University, Minsk State
Linguistic University, and Belarus State Economic University)
continued to have a lower non-return rate than universities outside
of the capital. This supports the assumption that students from
Minsk feel that they have better economic prospects and are more
inclined to return to Belarus at the end of the SWT program than
students from other regions of the country.
Selected Universities Non Return Rate
(percent)
-------------- --------------
Belarus State University (Minsk, Minsk region) 11
Minsk State Linguistic University (Minsk, Minsk region) 15
Belarus State Economic University (Minsk, Minsk region) 15
Gomel State University (Gomel, Gomel region) 23
Mozyr State Pedagogical University (Mozyr, Gomel region) 50
Baranovichi State University (Baranovichi, Brest region) 67
MOSCOW 00000759 003.2 OF 003
Many of the students attending university in Minsk are actually from
the regions but through talent and/or connections attend university
in the capital.
Comment: Looking Ahead to SWT 2009
--------------
9. (SBU) Again in 2009, Embassy Moscow will accept applications from
Belarusian SWT participants. To date we have received 873
applications. We anticipate the total number of applicants for 2009
to be approximately 2,500. Belarusian SWT applicants are
particularly challenging to adjudicate because they traditionally
have excellent English skills, good grades at university, prior
international travel to neighboring EU countries, and parents with
professional jobs. In order to refine the adjudication standards of
Belarusian applicants, Post this year requires all applicants to
have
their year of study in a specific data field in the NIV DS-156
application. Also, Consular officers are making more detailed
interview notes mentioning details like applicant's prior
international travel and home town. Armed with this data, Post will
be able to further refine the profile of a non-return SWT applicant.
End comment.
BEYRLE