Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09MOSCOW587
2009-03-11 14:20:00
CONFIDENTIAL//NOFORN
Embassy Moscow
Cable title:  

IRANIAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: MFA UNCERTAIN OF

Tags:  PGOV PREL IR RS 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO6502
PP RUEHBC RUEHDBU RUEHDE RUEHDIR RUEHKUK
DE RUEHMO #0587 0701420
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 111420Z MAR 09
FM AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2309
INFO RUCNIRA/IRAN COLLECTIVE
RUEHXD/MOSCOW POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHZG/NATO EU COLLECTIVE
C O N F I D E N T I A L MOSCOW 000587 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/11/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL IR RS
SUBJECT: IRANIAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: MFA UNCERTAIN OF
OUTCOME

Classified By: Political M/C Alice G. Wells for reasons 1.4 (b/d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L MOSCOW 000587

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/11/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL IR RS
SUBJECT: IRANIAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: MFA UNCERTAIN OF
OUTCOME

Classified By: Political M/C Alice G. Wells for reasons 1.4 (b/d).


1. (C) Russian MFA Iran desk chief Maxim Baranov, who
recently returned from Tehran, told us that the Iranian
political situation remained unclear, with too many potential
candidates to predict the outcome of the June 12 Presidential
election. Baranov thought that the large number of potential
presidential candidates, which he put at 10, ensured that
there would be a runoff following the initial voting. Should
Ahmadinejad eventually announce his candidacy, the current
President's popularity would allow him to make it to the
second round, although the fate of other candidates was
uncertain. Baranov argued, however, that the presence of
other hard-line candidates and dissatisfaction with the
country's economic situation meant that Ahmadinejad's
re-election was not ensured. He thought that the "main
political struggle" would come in April, after all the
candidates had officially registered and Iranians, returned
from spring vacations, focused more fully on the election.


2. (C) Baranov explained that while there were concerns that
the potential candidacy of former Prime Minister Mousavi
would divide the reformist camp, it also offered Iranian
voters the choice of a candidate remembered for guiding the
country through one of its most trying periods during the
Iran-Iraq war. Mousavi was credited with successfully
managing the economy under difficult fiscal constraints,
which would make him an attractive choice for voters
concerned with the current state of Iran's oil-dependent
economy. Baranov maintained that this meant Mousavi would
stand in sharp contrast to former President Khatami, who was
not considered an effective manager. Should Mousavi and
Khatami both run, the votes of reformist-minded Iranians
could hinge upon whether their concern for Iran's economy
trumped support for the country's reformist standard bearer.
Baranov added that possible runs by former Tehran Mayor
Karbaschi and speaker of Parliament Karroubi could only
further complicate the situation for Iranian reformists.


3. (C) Baronov said that voter turnout would depend heavily
upon the ability of the various campaigns to motivate
Iranians. While in Tehran, he looked up old acquaintances
who were either unsure for whom they would vote or if they
would vote at all. Using typically Russian terms to describe
the message and means campaigns use to appeal to voters,
Baranov said that the "propaganda and political technologies"
employed by the presidential campaigns will be of great
importance. Television and radio are under the thumb of the
Supreme Leader, but print media remains open, and the
internet, while controlled to some extent by the authorities,
could be employed effectively by knowledgeable campaigns. In
Tehran, Baranov saw peoples' cell phones displaying the
images of their favored presidential candidates and heard
that campaigns would use text messaging to reach voters.


4. (C) Baronov believes that the youth vote remains in
question, both in terms of how motivated young people will be
to vote, but also how they will vote. He cautioned us not to
assume that this extremely large segment of the Iranian
population was monolithic in its views, citing the presence
in schools and universities of conservative student
organizations, some of which fanatically maintain support for
the hard-liners and ideals of the Iranian Revolution.


5. (C) Baranov posited that Iran's economy would be the
primary issue in the campaign, with candidates addressing how
they would handle macroeconomic policy as well as spending on
education, pensions and other entitlements. The secondary
issue would be relations with the U.S., with all candidates
taking a hard-line with Washington. Another issue would be
Iran's place in the larger Middle East - all candidates will
advocate a strong Iran, although nuances in rhetoric will
indicate how they intend to work with neighbors and within
the international system, according to Baranov.
BEYRLE