KOSTROMA: OPPOSITION GROUPS FAIL TO GAIN TRACTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSCOW 000531

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/03/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM PINR KDEM SOCI RS
SUBJECT: KOSTROMA: OPPOSITION GROUPS FAIL TO GAIN TRACTION

Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Alice Wells. Reason: 1.4
(d).


1. (SBU) Summary: A visit to Kostroma revealed that
opposition groups have been unable to gain traction in the
region. United Russia dominates the political scene and
long-standing opposition groups trail far behind in support.
United Russia swept the January 25 mayoral elections and
dominated the March 1 municipal elections in Kostroma.
Ruling party dominance of the media and financial backers
further skewed the political playing field in United Russia's
favor. We saw little evidence that Russia's growing economic
crisis was having a political impact in this ruling
party-dominated town. End Summary.


2. (C) A February 24 visit to Kostroma, an historic Golden
Ring city north of Moscow, revealed a region without
effective opposition to the dominant United Russia. The
Communist Party (KPRF),ultra-nationalist Liberal Democratic
Party of Russia (LDPR),Just Russia, and Yabloko trail far
behind in public support. The new Kremlin-friendly Right
Cause party and the opposition Solidarity movement both have
little name recognition and scant membership. In the March 1
municipal elections, for instance, United Russia fielded
candidates in six of the eight single-mandate district
elections (for deputies to local parliaments and heads of
municipal regions within the Kostroma region).
Significantly, no opposition political parties ran
head-to-head against United Russia. Only one opposition
group, Just Russia, participated--but only in one of the
elections in which United Russia was not involved.

United Russia Exerts Control
--------------


3. (C) Svetlana Komissarova, a journalist from the
independent publisher "Provincial," told us that United
Russia has dominated recent elections in Kostroma, and that
"the opposition has no power." She told us that during the
mayoral elections in January, in which United Russia won a
landslide 91 percent of votes cast, many voters reported
afterward that they had not even heard of any of the
opposition candidates. Anna Skudayeva, a journalist who is
based in Kostroma and writes for Moscow's Novaya Gazeta,
voiced serious concern over the low (32 percent) voter
turnout for the mayoral elections. Skudayeva stated that she
feared the political system is heading toward a one-party
system as during Soviet times. She argued that "there is no
political interest and no real political struggle in
Kostroma." In her opinion, everyone knew that a United
Russia candidate would win the mayoral election.


4. (C) Following the previous governor's death in a car
accident in 2007, Putin-nominated governor, Igor Slunyayev
replaced Kostroma's outspoken Mayor Irina Pereverzeva with
the more compliant Alexander Kudryavtsev. Nikolai Sorokin,
representative of the Solidarity opposition group in
Kostroma, noted that the authorities used "tried and true"
tactics to lure residents to the voting sites: selling cheap
food, providing free busses, and giving young people free
tickets to disco parties.

Weak Opposition Presence
--------------


5. (C) According to Komissarova, KPRF is slightly stronger
than the other parties in Kostroma because it has a longer
history and pensioners support it. KPRF and LDPR sometimes
have peaceful gatherings in Kostroma, but Komissarova was
unaware of any opposition political protests in the area.
Skudayeva maintained that the opposition in Kostroma is very
weak and that they are struggling to attract the attention of
voters. She stated that opposition parties fight against
each other in Kostroma and that United Russia adds pressure
by provoking them.


6. (C) Mikhail Rumyantsev, the Right Cause representative in
Kostroma, told us that his party will register soon and
participate in the October 2009 oblast-wide elections in
Kostroma. He stated that the opposition groups in Kostroma
are weak because they do not have much financial backing.
Since Right Cause appeals to businessmen who are able to
contribute financially, he argued that his party will gain
support, in addition to its existing 800 plus current
contingent. He expects to attract even more supporters as
the economic crisis worsens in Kostroma and voters begin to
defect from United Russia. He acknowledged, however, that at
present small and medium-sized businesses are afraid to join
political parties since they fear government retribution.


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7. (C) Solidarity's Sorokin hopes to gather more supporters
than the current 100 who had formally belonged to the Union
of Right Forces (SPS) before its dissolution. Sorokin has
been spreading literature from the Solidarity movement in
Moscow and is planning a number of roundtable discussion
groups. In order to express independent views, he also plans
to launch a website in Kostroma. A visit to Solidarity's
office revealed a run-down warehouse facility with three
offices and a shabby conference room. One of the offices, in
which two staff members appeared busy at work in front of
ultra-modern computers, was filled with expensive, high-tech
equipment. While Sorokin outlined a number of potential
plans, he admitted that Solidarity is in the beginning phase,
so the group is short on funding and has not had any concrete
activities or achievements.

Media and Election Monitoring Obstacles
--------------


8. (C) Opposition parties in Kostroma are further hindered
by lack of access to the media, according to Skudayeva. The
local government has opened investigations into journalists
in Kostroma, which forces them to spend hours in court as
they struggle to show evidence that their stories are
factual. Journalists often risk being fired for writing
articles about controversial issues. Skudayeva stated that
"no newspaper in Kostroma has press freedom." Right Cause's
Rumyantsev added that people in Kostroma hardly follow the
news and that they are not politically active, so they are
easy to manipulate.


9. (C) In terms of observers, while any candidate has a
right to have observers present at polling stations,
Skudayeva told us that in practice the only observers are
affiliated with United Russia. She alleged that officials
threaten the voters that they will lose their jobs if they do
not vote for United Russia. These threats are especially
poignant during the economic crisis. Skudayeva described,
how during the mayoral elections, 700 employees from the
mayor's office were bussed to the election sites three days
before the elections and were subsequently told how to vote
and observed during the election process. She stated that
"there is no ability to vote in secret in Kostroma."

Comment
--------------


10. (SBU) Despite evidence of a mounting economic crisis
nationwide, the prospects for opposition groups in Kostroma
still appear bleak. Despite the initiative of new groups
such as the Right Cause and the Solidarity Movement, United
Russia will likely continue to dominate the playing field in
Kostroma. Kostroma provides a clear example of United
Russia's attention in cultivating strong support and media
dominance in smaller cities where opposition is little,
poorly funded, and far enough away from Moscow to receive
attention or resources.
BEYRLE