REGIONAL ELECTION PREVIEW: UNITED RUSSIA AIMS TO

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 MOSCOW 000489

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM RS
SUBJECT: REGIONAL ELECTION PREVIEW: UNITED RUSSIA AIMS TO
LIMIT COMMUNIST GAINS

REF: A. MOSCOW 290

B. MOSCOW 2008 3743

C. MOSCOW 2008 3754

D. MOSCOW 472

E. YEKATERINBURG 7


1. (SBU) Summary: Despite party infighting and some notable
defections, United Russia is expected to win in all nine
regions holding March 1 parliamentary elections. The
Communist Party has campaigned vigorously to make the
election a referendum on United Russia's handling of the
economic crisis, which experts believe will give the
Communists a modest boost at the polls. Communists and other
observers expect electoral fraud to mask actual voter
discontent with the ruling party, with the Communists
preemptively applying for rallies protesting the electoral
outcomes. In response, United Russia and Just Russia have
campaigned widely to stanch the potential electoral damage to
the regime. All four State Duma parties are on the ballots
of all nine regions, and Patriots of Russia registered in
three regions. Yabloko, forced by debt to abandon
region-wide ambitions, registered only in isolated municipal
elections. End Summary.

Duma Parties Register, Debts Force Yabloko to Sit Out
-------------- --------------


2. (SBU) March 1 regional parliamentary elections will be
held in Tatarstan, Volgograd, Kabardino-Balkaria,
Karachayevo-Cherkessiya, Khakassia, Arkhangelsk, Bryansk,
Vladimir, and Nenets Autonomous Region. More than 3,200
electoral campaigns of different levels (including local
referenda) will take place in 77 subjects of the Russian
Federation, and the Central Electoral Commission has
estimated that some 20 million voters may take part in the
various elections.


3. (SBU) The parliamentary elections will further cement the
position of the four State Duma parties, which are all
registered to compete in all nine regions. The only
non-State Duma party to successfully register was the
Patriots of Russia in Khakassia, Karachayevo-Cherkessiya, and
Volgograd. As non-Duma parties, Patriots of Russia and
Yabloko were required to collect signatures or pay a pledge
fee in order to register for the elections -- an arduous and
expensive process that Yabloko head Sergey Mitrokhin told us
they could not afford. Yabloko Deputy Head Sergey Ivanenko
told press in January that his party would limit its
ambitions to municipal elections, where "the Kremlin's hand
has not yet reached." Yabloko was denied registration in
Tomsk and Tver city elections and had difficulties
registering in St. Petersburg, but successfully registered in
Yekaterinburg, Chelyabinsk, and a few towns in Moscow Region.

United Russia Expected To Win Big
--------------


4. (SBU) The Public Opinion Fund (FOM) predicted February 25
that United Russia would receive an absolute majority of
53-58 percent in Arkhangelsk, Bryansk, Khakassia, and
Volgograd regional elections. In Kabardino-Balkaria,
Karachayevo-Cherkessiya, and Tatarstan the party is expected
to receive even more. The Communists, FOM forecast, would
come in second in all seven of those regions. Just Russia
and LDPR are fighting for third place in all nine regions.
Vladimir and Nenets Autonomous Region, the only two of the
nine regions where United Russia does not hold a majority
now, are expected to be closer races. According to FOM, the
Communists might take enough seats "to slightly change the
situation" in Volgograd, Vladimir, and Bryansk. LDPR leader
Vladimir Zhirinovskiy expressed optimism that his party would
win seats in all regions, with the strongest showing in
Bryansk and Nenets Autonomous Region.


5. (SBU) However, United Russia's notoriously strong
discipline has frayed in the regions as party infighting has
become public. In Murmansk, Governor Yuriy Evdokimov opposed
the regional party branch's support for the current mayor of
the regional capital. In Nevinnomyssk, the regional branch
refused to support the current United Russia mayor's
re-election in favor of an opponent. Party membership also
has lost its cachet among some candidates who have opted to
run without the party's name attached. The mayor of Smolensk
recently left the party, and in Chelyabinsk three United
Russia candidates filed as independents just before the
mid-January registration deadline. Even State Duma Speaker
Boris Gryzlov's son, Dmitriy Gryzlov, is running as a
self-nominated (independent) candidate in St. Petersburg
district administration elections.


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Communists Expect Electoral Gains, Fraud
--------------


6. (SBU) The Communist Party (KPRF) has campaigned vigorously
to attract protest votes against the ruling regime in what it
contends is a referendum on anti-crisis measures. KPRF
Deputy Chair Ivan Melnikov told Kommersant on February 25
that he expected KPRF to win at least 20 percent of the vote
in Bryansk, Vladimir, Volgograd, and Khakassia. Communist
leader Gennadiy Zyuganov has traveled extensively in February
to rally supporters, with recent visits to Bryansk and
Tatarstan.


7. (SBU) Melnikov has repeatedly told press that he expected
widespread electoral fraud to mask the Communists' true gains
at the polls on March 1 (Ref A). To detect such fraud,
Melnikov announced that KPRF would conduct a parallel
electronic accounting of vote results. Anticipating that the
government would falsify vote results, the Communists have
applied preemptively for protest permits in all nine regions
should they deem the elections unfair.

Just Russia Hopes to Thwart Communist Gains
--------------


8. (SBU) Seconding the Communists' assessment, Golos
political scientist Aleksandr Kynaev told Kommersant, "there
is growing discontent" and "people will not vote for a party
but for the general attitude toward the system. This will be
a protest." In an effort to siphon votes from the Communists
to a left-leaning pro-Kremlin party, Just Russia has deployed
party leader Sergey Mironov in February to rally support in
Volgograd, Bryansk, Arkhangelsk, and Vladimir. Mironov told
press in Volgograd that he expects to win seats in every
regional parliament due to an increase in support for leftist
ideals during the crisis. However, a January 14-25 poll by
the Public Opinion Fund (FOM) indicated that Just Russia
risks not passing the electoral threshold in all nine
regional elections.

Thresholds and Registration
--------------


9. (SBU) Election procedures vary from region to region, and
regional parliaments can be elected either by proportional
representation or by a mixed electoral system.
Kabardino-Balkaria and Nenets Autonomous Region use only
proportional representation, so only parties will run and
deputies will be selected from party lists according to the
results. The other seven regions will use a mixed electoral
system, with half of the deputies elected from party lists
and half as single-mandate candidates (who may be party
members or independent candidates). The passing threshold to
win seats has been raised in eight regions from 5 to 7
percent; in Khakassia it remains 5 percent. Law demands that
each parliament include at least two parties, so that even if
only one party reaches the threshold then the party with the
second-most votes will win a seat. (Note: This occurred in
Kemerovo Region's October elections, which allotted a single
token seat to Just Russia despite its not passing the
threshold.)

"Locomotives" Again Top Party Lists
--------------


10. (SBU) During regional campaigns, political parties
traditionally top their candidate lists with heads of regions
and federal or regional party leaders. These top-level
functionaries, dubbed "locomotives," as a rule do not give up
their existing jobs to join the parliaments. They are
involved in the campaigns in hope that their authority and
popularity will help their respective parties to win. In
regional campaigns, United Russia usually tops its party
lists with governors and mayors of the regional capitals.
The Communists and LDPR appoint their most popular federal
and regional leaders to top their lists.


11. (SBU) Locomotives in March elections include
Kabardino-Balkaria President Arsen Kanokov atop the United
Russia list, and LDPR leader Vladimir Zhirinovskiy leading
the list in Volgograd and Khakassia. Other locomotives in
Khakassia will be Republic Head Viktor Zimin for United
Russia and Patriots of Russia national leader Gennadiy
Semigin. Vladimir mayor Aleksandr Ryabkov heads the United
Russia list in that region's parliamentary elections.

Internet and SMS Voting Experiments
--------------


12. (SBU) Central Election Commission head Vladimir Churov

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revealed that the internet voting experiment, first unveiled
in Tula Region during the October elections, will be used
again in "some remote areas" of Vladimir Region. Also in
Vladimir Region, SMS (text message) voting will receive its
first trial. Internet and SMS voting experiments will run
parallel to the actual elections, and votes cast in the
experiments will not count toward official vote tallies.

Regional Parliamentary Breakdowns
--------------


13. (SBU) The following is a breakdown of regional duma
elections:

-- Tatarstan (100 seats): Only the four State Duma parties
received registration, and United Russia is widely expected
to maintain its strong majority in the regional duma where it
currently holds 72 seats. The Communists have alleged
widespread campaign violations by United Russia in Tatarstan,
and KPRF Deputy Nikolai Ryabov demanded that the regional
electoral commission head resign. LDPR head Vladimir
Zhirinovskiy also called for the electoral commission's
resignation after claiming that it hindered his campaign.
According to a FOM poll in late January, United Russia led
the race and could win up to 70 percent of the votes, while
Just Russia and LDPR risk not passing the 7-percent
threshold. The Communists were poised to win 10 percent.

-- Volgograd (38 seats): United Russia city officials have
conceded that the Communists likely would receive a boost of
up to 5 percent in the election (Ref B). The Communists have
accused United Russia of illegal electioneering in Volgograd,
where a local municipality reportedly paid for and
distributed children's gifts bearing the United Russia logo.
United Russia holds 20 seats currently, and leaders of Just
Russia (which holds none) told us they hope toQin seats in
the next parliament.

-- Karachayevo-Cherkessiya (73 seats): The four State Duma
parties and Patriots of Russia received registration to
appear on the ballot. United Russia, which holds 45 seats,
is expected to win in a landslide. Local election officials
told us they expect a large turnout of around 80 percent (up
from 60 percent for national elections in the region) because
voters will elect local governments in addition to the
regional parliament. Mukhamed Cherkesov from Adygea Khasa (a
Circassian diaspora NGO) also told us in December that his
organization will do what it can to make sure ethnic
Cherkessk "get out the vote" and that he would try to enlist
several successful Cherkessk businessmen to help (Ref C).

-- Kabardino-Balkaria (72 seats): The republic has decreased
the number of regional deputies in its next parliament from
110 to 72. In the last regional election in December 2003,
United Russia received 71 percent of the vote, KPRF received
9 percent and the Agrarian Party (which recently merged with
United Russia) also received 9 percent. United Russia is
expected to maintain its overwhelming majority.

-- Khakassia (75 seats): Patriots of Russia received its
registration only after an appeal to the Central Election
Commission. The region's current parliament comprises a
fractious membership: in addition to the State Duma parties,
the so-called "Khakassia Bloc" holds 19 seats and
independents hold 4 seats. However, blocs will not be on the
ballot and could result only if non-party single-mandate
candidates joined together.

-- Bryansk (60 seats): KPRF leader Gennadiy Zyuganov
predicted in January that the Communists would get the upper
hand over United Russia in Bryansk, but observers have
predicted they will win no more than 25 percent. United
Russia is expected to win by a large margin, but the party
took no chances in deploying State Duma Speaker Boris Gryzlov
on February 18 to bolster party efforts there (Ref D).

-- Vladimir (38 seats): The Communists registered their party
list only with the intervention of the Central Election
Commission. In another controversy, Just Russia members
Galina Esyakova and Viktor Shohrin accused State Duma deputy
Anton Belyakov of selling positions after they did not make
their party's list. Although United Russia (with 18 seats)
does not hold a majority of seats in the current parliament,
and the Communists traditionally have been strong in
Vladimir, experts expect United Russia to win a majority on
March 1.

-- Nenets Autonomous Region (11 seats): In one of the more
unpredictable elections, the region has decreased the number
of deputies in its next parliament from 18 to 11. United

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Russia does not hold a majority of seats in the current
parliament, and the recent sacking of Governor Valeriy
Potapenko may hamper the party's efforts to achieve one.
United Russia's Artur Chilingarov told Kommersant February 26
that prior to the change of governors his party was poised to
win more than 60 percent of the vote; "now," he despaired,
"everything has fallen." Nonetheless, despite an active LDPR
campaign and strong Communist support in the region, United
Russia is expected to win the most votes if not a majority.

-- Arkhangelsk (62 seats): Patriots of Russia were denied
registration in the regional election, and harassment of
citizens who signed electoral petitions has been reported.

Local Elections
--------------


14. (SBU) Mayoral elections will be held in Chita,
Petropavlovsk-Kamchatskiy, Blagoveshchensk, Murmansk,
Novosibirsk, Smolensk, Chelyabinsk, Birobidzhan, and Anadyr.
City parliaments and administrations will be elected in
Ulan-Ude, Khabarovsk, Chita, Bryansk, Vologda, Murmansk,
Penza, Yekaterinburg, Tver, Chelyabinsk, Birobidzhan, and
Anadyr. Bryansk and Tver elections will use proportional
representation; Ulan-Ude and Chita will run mixed systems;
all others will use a first-past-the-post system. See Ref E
for details on elections to be held in the Urals Federal
District.

Comment
--------------


15. (SBU) March 1 elections will not threaten United Russia's
tight grasp on regional dominance. However, the evident
fraying of party discipline and Moscow's exertions to
maintain control demonstrate increased concern that the
economic crisis will turn political. Acknowledgement by
local United Russia officials that the Communists will make
modest gains in some regions, the deployment of pro-Kremlin
leaders and electoral "advisors" to the regions in theQun-up
to the election, and the decision by some candidates to
eschew the party brand indicate that United Russia's cachet
has tarnished. How the regime responds to electoral
setbacks, including whether it continues to support governors
unable to muster an adequate voter turnout, will provide an
important insight into future anti-crisis tactics in the
regions.
BEYRLE