BRYANSK: GOVERNOR BOASTS STABILITY AMID CRISIS,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSCOW 000472

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/25/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM ECON RS BO UP
SUBJECT: BRYANSK: GOVERNOR BOASTS STABILITY AMID CRISIS,
COMMUNISTS HOPE FOR ELECTORAL GAINS

REF: MOSCOW 290

Classified By: Political Minister-Counselor Alice Wells for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: A February 18-19 visit to Bryansk revealed a
regional government enjoying strong Moscow support yet
focused on shifting attention away from the growing economic
crisis. Isolated investment successes and a pan-Slavic
economic forum in Bryansk, featuring an appearance by State
Duma Speaker Boris Gryzlov, have provided a PR coup for the
governor and for United Russia as March 1 elections approach.
Bryansk lacks any popular or coordinated liberal democratic
opposition, leaving the Communist Party as the only real
threat to United Russia's dominance. Despite expectations of
voter fraud and limited broadcast media access, the
Communists have targeted Bryansk as a key electoral
battleground for the March 1 regional elections. End Summary.

Government Highlights Investment Projects, Moscow Support
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2. (C) Despite the deepening economic crisis, the Bryansk
Region government has focused on isolated investment projects
and the cachet of Moscow backing to bolster its image and
limit the political opposition ahead of March 1 regional and
municipal elections. Trade and Industry Chamber Chair
Natalya Suvorova rosily predicted February 18 that Bryansk
would weather the crisis well, but then just ten minutes
later she complained that vanishing bank credit and a lack of
talented professionals in the region (e.g., lawyers,
businessmen, editors) would scare away investment. Isolated
investment successes have therefore received major local
media coverage, such as the February 21 opening of a new
shopping mall amid much fanfare from Bryansk Governor Nikolai
Denin. However, the governor's popularity remains uncertain
amid declining industrial output and rising unemployment
(cited at 11.4 percent by the pro-government Suvorova). On
the other hand, local businesswoman Arina Ivanicheva offered
us a grimmer outlook with stories of numerous small
businesses that recently shuttered and commercial rent prices
that have dropped by as much as 50 percent since last summer.


3. (C) Governor Denin also used the February 18 first-ever
International Slavic Economic Forum as an opportunity to
bolster the regional government's standing. With a goal of
promoting investment and Slavic unity, the forum brought
together political, banking, and business leaders from
Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine (as well as delegations from
several European and Asian countries). It is unclear whether
the forum will result in jobs and investment, but the loud
applause given to various speakers' calls to "unite the
Slavic culture" and "promote Slavic unity" demonstrated
Bryansk's strategic importance as the only Russian region
bordering both Ukraine and Belarus. Akhmed Abdullaev, a
forum attendee and Deputy General Director of Renaissance
Construction in Moscow, told us the forum would not benefit
his firm and likely would not result in new investment
"except maybe projects that will bring money to those who
already have it," an allusion to allegedly corrupt projects
in the region. (Note: One example of corruption cited
frequently by contacts was the boondoggle related to building
a new local airport. End Note.) The forum, Abdullaev
confided, offered local leaders "a chance to drink too much
vodka and read too much bad poetry to their guests."


4. (C) Support from Moscow has provided a further boost for
the regional government and has demonstrated that the Kremlin
does not intend to give ground easily in the March 1
elections. The most recent indications of Moscow support
included State Duma Speaker Boris Gryzlov delivering opening
remarks at the February 18 forum and holding meetings with
the governor, and the February 16 visit by pro-Kremlin Just
Russia party leader (and Federation Council chair) Sergey
Mironov.

Communists Expect Boost, Fraud in March Election
-------------- ---


5. (C) Even the Bryansk governor's office conceded that the
Communist Party would benefit at the polls on March 1 from
present economic hardships. Andrey Anofrikov, the new press
secretary for Governor Denin, acknowledged that the
Communists likely would receive a small bump of about 5
percent (bringing them to 25 percent) due to increasing voter
frustrations with the crisis. In response, United Russia has
campaigned vigorously. Downtown Bryansk was papered with
campaign posters and billboards for United Russia, with
nearly every store window including at least one sign for the
party. Canvassers distributed United Russia literature.
Elsewhere in town, LDPR and Just Russia each had one lone

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billboard to broadcast their message. We did not see a
single Communist billboard or poster, and KPRF's Bryansk
branch declined to meet with us.


6. (C) Since KPRF leader Gennadiy Zyuganov's January
prediction that the Communists would make large gains in
Bryansk's March 1 elections, the Communists have pinned their
hopes on using the region as a first blow against United
Russia dominance. Zyuganov and KPRF leaders spent February
24-25 in Bryansk to rally supporters, but party leaders
privately have acknowledged they do not expect the official
vote tallies will be accurate. KPRF Deputy Chair Ivan
Melnikov told us February 5 that widespread electoral fraud
would hide his party's real gains in the regions (reftel),an
accusation for which regional Yabloko branch leader Andrey
Ponomarev claimed to have evidence. Ponomarev claimed that
his accountant, Tatyana Rozavoniya, also worked as a
secretary for the regional electoral commission. Although
not independently verifiable, Ponomarev told us that
Rozavoniya told him she personally had witnessed electoral
fraud during past elections.

Democratic Opposition Nearly Non-Existent
--------------


7. (C) Democratic opposition in Bryansk remains in shambles
and in no position to muster public support against the
government, much less pose any threat to it. Yabloko's
Ponomarev told us his party had only 500 members region-wide,
down from 5,000 members six years ago, and that the last
opposition protest had been in October 2008. Vladimir
Shcherbakov, head of the regional branch of the Russian
People's Democratic Union (RNDS, headed by former prime
minister Mikhail Kasyanov),shared Ponomarev's downbeat
assessment of regional political opposition. "Nobody cares
who the leadership is," Shcherbakov explained, adding that
"the people here worry too much about how they will eat and
how they will work" to rally on the streets.

"Dacha Ring" an Unlikely Political Safety Valve
-------------- --


8. (C) Gubernatorial press secretary Anofrikov speculated
that economic disaster would not necessarily lead to
political unrest in Bryansk because those suffering most from
the crisis would retreat to what he called the "dacha ring"
around the city. During the 1998 crisis, he explained, local
residents moved from their city homes to their summer homes
outside Bryansk. There, he said, Bryansk residents lived far
more cheaply, subsisted on food they raised, and were away
from downtown Bryansk where they might be tempted to rally
against the government. The dacha ring's re-emergence,
Anofrikov noted, would indicate a shift from economic to
political instability if the demographic hemorrhaging from
urban areas were not managed properly. However, given the
region's greater wealth and number of small and medium-sized
businesses today (at least 1,000 according to Tatyana
Suvarova) compared to 1998, the so-called dacha ring may not
appeal as an alternative to life in the city.

Comment
--------------


9. (C) Despite growing economic troubles in the region,
Bryansk likely will not suffer any significant political
shifts in the March 1 elections. KPRF leader Zyuganov
personally targeted Bryansk as a political battlefield on
which he hoped to draw blood against United Russia to
demonstrate his party's renewed vigor. However, his plan to
win a majority of regional duma seats certainly will fall far
short, at least in the "official" vote tallies, since Moscow
remains unwilling to let any region be the first crack in
United Russia's dominance. Bryansk's importance to Moscow
may also lay in its strategic location bordering both Ukraine
and Belarus. Pumping up Bryansk as a nexus of pan-Slavic
vitality may not result in large financial investments, but
it should provide an added morale boost to carry the region's
leaders past the elections.
BEYRLE