OPPOSITION LEADER KASPAROV OPTIMISTICALLY PREDICTS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MOSCOW 003037

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/18/2019
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINR KDEM ECON RS
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION LEADER KASPAROV OPTIMISTICALLY PREDICTS
INEVITABLE CHAOS IN RUSSIA

Classified By: Ambassador John R. Beyrle for reasons 1.4 (b, d)


1. (C) Summary: In a December 11 meeting with Ambassador
Beyrle, opposition leader Garry Kasparov gave an upbeat
assessment of how his Solidarity political movement is
positioned to exploit the "inevitable chaos" that will arise
from the current government's course. He argued that
authoritarian trends have increased under Medvedev, whose
drive for economic reform Kasparov sees as a plan to
redistribute political authority and shift resources away
from Putin loyalists. On a broader scale, China has replaced
the United States as prime threat to Russia, while the
concept European integration is becoming a popular
counterbalance to China's perceived interest in acquiring
territory in the Far East. Kasparov went on to lament that a
list of all USAID programming in Russia was not posted on the
Embassy website. End Summary.

The Future of Solidarity
--------------


2. (C) United Civil Front Chairman and Solidarity Co-Chairman
Garry Kasparov argued to the Ambassador December 11 that
Solidarity was the first and only unified liberal
organization in Russia, connecting the business right to the
social democrats on the left. The movement is building a
structure across Russia which has a unique unified appeal.
The movement is preparing for the "inevitable chaos" that
will result from the present government's course. When the
Ambassador inquired whether this process amounted to the
creation of a democratic reserve for a time when political
space exists for a real opposition, Kasparov went a step
further. In his view, Solidarity is emulating a Bolshevik
model -- organizing to fill a power vacuum. Solidarity is an
ideological coalition formed -- in contrast to other
opposition movements -- absent of influence or manipulation
from the government. Kasparov envisions Solidarity
eventually splitting into three or more political parties
when the movement makes a transition into elected government.

Attacking Luzhkov makes Strange Bedfellows
--------------


3. (C) Solidarity Co-Chairman Boris Nemtsov has led the
charge against Moscow Mayor Yuri Luzhkov, most recently with
his investigative presentation "Luzhkov: Itogi (Results)."
(Note: Multiple contacts within Solidarity report the
movement falls into two camps, under Kasparov and Nemtsov,
and that there is noticeable tension between them. In
describing Nemtsov, however, Kasparov gave no indication of
any tension -- he was completely positive and laudatory. End
Note.) While Luzhkov sued Nemtsov for libel and won, the
judge threw out all but one complaint. Solidarity considered
this a major victory, as five other allegations of corruption
were not considered libel. According to Kasparov, Nemtsov
has been working closely with LDPR's Zhirinovsky to
coordinate attacks on Luzhkov. In response to an inquiry
from the Ambassador about how long Luzhkov had left in power,
Kasparov responded that, while he believes Luzhkov is widely
disliked, there is no one to replace him. The federal
government will not risk losing control of the streets of
Moscow and, for all his faults, Luzhkov maintains stability.
There may be growing support in the Kremlin to retain Luzhkov
as mayor in a severely weakened form, Kasparov alleged.

Infrastructure and Corruption
--------------


4. (C) Kasparov is not convinced that the Nevsky Express
train derailment was a terrorist attack and listed conspiracy
theories, which point to a cover-up aimed at hiding a more
shocking truth -- that Soviet-era infrastructure is
collapsing rapidly. The clear corruption of local
government, which enabled the club fire in Perm days later,
forced Prime Minister Vladimir Putin to take the
unprecedented step of firing members of the local government.
In Kasparov's view, these incidents will only become more
frequent as the corruption of the government prevents
effective responses to the inevitable decay of
infrastructure.

Modernization as a Fight over Spending
--------------


5. (C) While some commentators see President Dmitriy
Medvedev's call for modernization as a solution to the
decaying infrastructure of the last century, Kasparov
stressed that the Russian government has grown distinctly
more authoritarian under Medvedev over that last two years.

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Instead, he sees modernization as an attempt by Medvedev to
increase his influence within the Kremlin. Modernization
programs will transfer significant federal funds from Putin
loyalists within the bureaucracy into the hands of Medvedev
supporters. Modernization is a tool for redistribution of
political authority, not to improve economic performance and
quality of life.

Putinism without Putin
--------------


6. (C) Kasparov went on to argue that many decision makers in
Moscow are losing patience with Putin. His tight control of
the levers of power, and the stability he creates, are well
respected. His tendency to hand out money to his friends and
political excesses of his rule, for instance the spectacle of
the Khodorkovsky trial, have caused tension. A growing
cohort of Medvedev supporters want "Putinism with a human
face," a more pragmatic continuation of managed democracy.
While the budget is still very much under Putin's control,
Kasparov observed that Vladislav Surkov remains extremely
influential as First Deputy Head of the Presidential
Administration, and he appears to have positioned himself
firmly behind Medvedev. Kasparov believes that with a week
of bad press the Russian people would turn their back on
Putin and, conversely, with the right public relations
support, Medvedev could take control of the government.


Clash of Civilizations: Russian Geostrategy
--------------


7. (C) Kasparov characterized Russian views toward America as
shifting from an enemy to a meddling secondary actor. China
has replaced the United States as the threat to Russian
territorial integrity; there is a growing belief, he said,
that China could take up to 50 percent of Russian territory
in the next ten to twenty years. Kasparov also suggested a
"peaceful divorce" of the Caucasus in response to the threat
of Islamic radicalism. When the Ambassador countered that
cutting the region out of Russia would almost certainly
create a greater threat, and the Russian government would be
better off trying to address the short and long-term causes
of instability there, Kasparov responded that many Russians
no longer want to pay the high costs associated with such
efforts. The average Russian citizen is tired of the
problem, sees no hope of improvement, and wants it to simply
go away.


8. (C) Europe, in contrast, is increasingly seen as friendly
by Russia. Strong relations with Europe counter-balance
China's claims to Russian territory, and for this reason even
nationalist groups are beginning to support the idea of
integration. The Ambassador stressed that a prime American
goal was to convince Russia that the U.S. has a genuine
interest in a strong, prosperous Russia. Kasparov responded
that China's recent softening of rhetoric against Taiwan was
seen as a conscious decision to both appease the U.S. and
focus efforts on exploiting the Russian Far East. Kasparov
described this emerging Russian world view as "Europe:
Positive, America: Negative, China: Enemy."

USAID
--------------


9. (C) Kasparov expressed frustration that USAID funding
decision-making was not more transparent, saying that the US
government spends approximately 67 million dollars in Russia
annually, though only five million dollars are accounted for
in the USAID website. (Note: The USAID Russia Mission's
public website does include specific dollar amount
allocations by program type. End Note.) He suggested a
greater focus on peer-to-peer projects, which would bring
Russians to America for training. Focusing on trade union
and veterans' organization cooperation, he argued, would help
to protect USAID programming from government propaganda
attacks.

Comment
--------------


10. (C) Kasparov paints a gloomy picture of Russia's future,
but one that validates the Solidarity movement's goals.
Without the "inevitable chaos" which he predicts will swallow
the present regime, it is difficult to imagine a scenario in
which Solidarity's present leadership rises to power. It is
an inconvenient truth that the movement has negligible
traction with the average voter outside of Moscow and St.
Petersburg. Kasparov's assessment of the Putin-Medvedev

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tandem, as a government trying both to deal with the problems
presently facing Russia and to position themselves to remain
in control of the country, reflects a growing consensus in
other parts of the Russian elite as well.
Beyrle