MEDVEDEV'S ANNUAL ADDRESS: POLITICAL FOCUS ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSCOW 002781

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/12/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV PMAR PHUM PINR ECON EFIN RS
SUBJECT: MEDVEDEV'S ANNUAL ADDRESS: POLITICAL FOCUS ON
REGIONS AND FOREIGN POLICY PROGRESS

REF: A. MOSCOW 2416

B. 08 MOSCOW 3243

Classified By: Ambassador John R. Beyrle; reasons 1.4(b/d).


1. (C) Summary: President Medvedev's second annual address to
a joint session of the State Duma and Federation Council
today built upon the intellectual foundation he had already
laid in his September article "Russia, Forward!" (Ref A).
Repeatedly citing the article and specific proposals from the
over 16,000 responses he has received to it, Medvedev
identified rejection of the untenable reliance on the sale of
energy and raw materials as the fundamental source of income
for the country as a unifying element. In an approximately
100 minute speech, Medvedev returned again and again to the
need for modernization in the economy, and in the health care
and educational systems (Septel). Only briefly -- much to
the disappointment of some -- did he speak to political
change, outlining proposals for more political dialogue at
the regional level which paralleled his 2008 proposed
national changes. Medvedev was more specific in this address
than in his article in proposing possible steps to launch the
economic, political and social changes he argued Russia needs
improve citizens' quality of life and remain a powerful,
respected international partner. He played today his
tandem-specific role as the long-range thinker well, leaving
the economic details to Prime Minister Putin, and the
question of demonstrating openness to political competition
to United Russia. End Summary.

Politics: All Well at National Level; Regions Should Emulate
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2. (C) In light of the animated discussion his September
article provoked, and of the tainted October regional
elections, Medvedev's comments tying economic modernization
and reform with political developments were greatly
anticipated. The President's political proposals in his 2008
poslaniye were largely cosmetic -- giving nominal
representation (a few seats) in the Duma to parties that
crossed a 5 percent barrier but did not meet the higher level
(7 percent of votes) required to secure seats fully
proportional to its national share of votes, as well as
greater access to electronic media for opposition parties.


3. (SBU) Medvedev declared that "functioning, multi-party
democracy now exists in Russia." He called for harmonizing
of the sizes of legislative chambers throughout the country
(Moscow's city Duma has 35 members representing a population
of 11 million, while Tyva's Duma, elected by a much smaller
population, has 162 deputies),as well as eventually phasing
out of the requirement of candidates collecting signatures in
order to be included on the ballot. While these issues will
have significance for particular groups or parties in certain
regions, their implementation would do little to affect the
political system in which United Russia party and government
officials exercise dominant control of the electoral system.
Medvedev did call for opposition parties to have greater
access to regional electronic media, for regional officials
to annually appear before regional legislatures and stand
accountable for their decisions, and for regional and local
leaders to meet annually with representatives of all parties
in order to give the latter the opportunity to present their
ideas and concerns to executive branch authorities.


4. (C) While there may be some resistance to some of these
ideas by certain regional politicians, the ideas will not
have much of an impact on the overall political system. But
what will likely spark greater debate is Medvedev's
suggestion that single mandate districts be eliminated, and
that regional legislators be elected based on proportional
party lists. Yevgeniy Minchenko, Director of the Center for
Political Expertise, told us after the speech that while the
other ideas Medvedev put forward were excellent the party
list proposals is "crazy," and that he will work to have it
dropped. (Note: Minchenko claimed that the proposals came
from his collaboration with another self-declared poslaniye
contributor, Effective Politics Fund Director Gleb
Pavlovskiy. Pavlovskiy told us that he had been devoting
most of his time to working on Medvedev's speech which, along
with the November 21 United Russia Congress, would indicate
the current focus of the tandem. End Note)

North Caucasus Violence: International Terrorism to Blame
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5. (C) As Medvedev hit the 90 minute mark, he turned to the
worsening situation in Russia's northern Caucasus region. He
tied the terrorist acts there to unspecified international
terrorism but noted that the root of the problem is the
region's dismal economic conditions, singling out Ingushetiya
(50 percent unemployment) and Chechnya (30 percent
unemployment) as the worst of the lot. In order to fund
programs to improve education in Ingushetiya and assist in
organizing work battalions of Ingush men to other parts of
Russia, Medvedev announced a 32 billion ruble (currently over
USD one billion) federal program for Ingushetiya in addition
to the 29 billion rubles for the republic he pledged in
January 2009 -- none of which, our contacts report, has yet
to be disbursed. He also announced the creation of the
position of a "Northern Caucasus Supervisor" who would be
responsible for the region. Ingushetiya President Yunus-Bek
Yevkurov quickly publicly supported the creation of the
position, stating that it was not important what title the
person bore, but only that he would have the power and
authority to take whatever actions were needed. (Note:
Moscow Carnegie Center's Masha Lipman told us this was tried
before several years ago, with then Southern PolPred Dmitriy
Kozak, with little affect. End Note).

Foreign Policy: What a Difference a Year Makes
-------------- -


6. (SBU) Only in the waning minutes of the speech did
Medvedev address foreign and military policy. He pledged
ample funding to the military for additional military
projects, including additional aircraft, anti-air rocket
systems (Iskanders) and nuclear submarines. He endorsed
reform efforts to build a cadre of professional officers and
tied these efforts to his overall theme of modernization. On
foreign policy, he reiterated his earlier calls for a legally
binding agreement on European security based upon a "new,
effective organization" to serve as the platform for
addressing issues critical not just for some countries, but
for all of Europe. He denied, though, that by advocating for
such a new agreement Russia was against NATO, and he charged
the MFA with working to make progress on his earlier
proposals for a European Security Treaty. Had such an
organization existed last year, he claimed, the war with
Georgia could have been avoided.


7. (C) Masha Lipman, editor of the journal "Pro et Contra,"
told us immediately after the speech that she detected in it
"a profound sense of modesty" with regard to defense and
foreign policy goals. After "obligatory" words in praise the
Russian armed forces and promises of additional funding,
Medvedev transitioned to strong endorsements of multilateral
approaches to global problems, noting in particular that
cooperation with Russia's partners was essential to confront
key foreign policy challenges of Iran, North Korea,
Afghanistan and Middle East peace. He praised the
constructive work done by the G-20 to address the global
financial and economic crisis. He only once directly
referred to the United States (together with China) as
countries with large populations that are successfully
adapting to the new conditions of the global economy. He
further noted that modernization requires close cooperation
with other countries, and that investment and exchanges are
of such a high priority for Russia that it would not
jeopardize this by threatening its neighbors.

Comment
--------------


8. (C) Medvedev played his role as chief strategist,
building on his article to make his case directly to
legislators and the nation to take the harder path toward
modernization. Presidential Administration Chief of Staff
Naryshkin has already told media that some of the regional
political changes the President proposed "will take years to
implement." While it is clear that Medvedev took into
account some of the ideas from main opposition parties (i.e.,
those that have representation in the State Duma),his
defense of the Russian "multi-party democracy" has left
others like Yabloko Chairman Sergey Mitrokhin cold. Russians
can be expected to wait to see what proposals their
government puts forward, and how willing national and
regional political leaders in the dominant United Russia
party will be to share political space with the opposition,
especially those whom were excluded from participating in
recent political contests.
Beyrle