Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09MOSCOW2779
2009-11-12 12:32:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Moscow
Cable title:  

UNITED RUSSIA'S NEXT STEPS AFTER TAINTED REGIONAL ELECTIONS

Tags:  PREL PGOV PMAR PHUM PINR ECON EFIN RS 
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSCOW 002779 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/11/2019
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PMAR, PHUM, PINR, ECON, EFIN, RS
SUBJECT: UNITED RUSSIA'S NEXT STEPS AFTER TAINTED REGIONAL
ELECTIONS

Classified By: Ambassador John R. Beyrle; reasons 1.4(b/d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSCOW 002779

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/11/2019
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PMAR, PHUM, PINR, ECON, EFIN, RS
SUBJECT: UNITED RUSSIA'S NEXT STEPS AFTER TAINTED REGIONAL
ELECTIONS

Classified By: Ambassador John R. Beyrle; reasons 1.4(b/d).

1. (C) Summary: United Russia's handling of the October 11
elections has left it with a pyrrhic victory. The party
achieved majorities in regional parliaments and big city
councils at a cost of cynicism and apathy on the part of a
vast majority of Russians. The election results point to a
blatant misuse of United Russia's administrative resources,
as well as corruption by overzealous bureaucrats who were
under pressure from higher authorities to "win big." Despite
the short Duma boycott by opposition parties, there have been
only a few strident calls to challenge the election results.
Opposition parties' inability to mount an effective campaign
contributed to their poor showing and United Russia's
victories. As United Russia prepares for its party congress
on November 21 in Saint Petersburg, it faces the challenge of
governing, maintaining some degree of cooperation with the
opposition, and keeping in touch with key elite groups and
Russian public opinion. Medvedev and Putin will try to keep
the public's focus on modernization and their "success" in
combating the economic crisis. End Summary.

Next Steps After Victory
--------------

2. (C) Moscow has been abuzz with rumors of personnel and
policy changes since United Russia's blow-out victory in the
October 11 elections. Following the short-lived Duma walkout
by the three main opposition parties with representation in
the Duma, leaders of Just Russia, Communists, and Liberal
Democrats met with President Medvedev. He deflected their
criticism of Central Election Commission Chairman Churov by
urging the courts to review the most egregious examples of
fraud without disparaging the results. Although pundits are
already writing Moscow Mayor Luzhkov's political obituary,
reports of his death are greatly exaggerated. Party
leadership is split over how to respond to his staff's
augmentation of Moscow's voting totals. Rumors that he will
slowly be eased out of government and United Russia
responsibilities abound. Luzhkov takes care of his supporters
and remains very popular in Moscow. Given his popularity, it
seems unlikely that he will leave office anytime soon.


3. (C) Presidential Administration Deputy Chief of Staff
Vladislav Surkov, the intellectual godfather of United
Russia, is widely perceived as having benefited from the
elections results. Downplaying gross excesses in Moscow and
other regions, several party insiders told us Surkov sees
the victory of only Kremlin-sanctioned parties as vindication
of the "sovereign democracy" concept. Surkov and United
Russia insider Gleb Pavlovskiy have credibility with United
Russia's "brain trust," including Valeriy Fadeyev, Nikolay
Bunin, and Vyacheslav Nikonov. Institute for Contemporary
Development Director Igor Yurgens has lost his preeminent
position as Medvedev's "idea man." Some attribute the change
to Yurgen's late summer public comparison of Putin to
Brezhnev which White House staff confirmed to us was "not
appreciated" by the Prime Minister.

A New Party Program
--------------

4. (C) We hear that United Russia leaders are hard at work
preparing Medvedev's remarks for the United Russia Party
Congress which will be in St. Petersburg on November 21. The
new concept for the party is "modern conservatism."
Modernization is the central theme of Medvedev's presidency,
and he has been relying more and more on Surkov, Presidential
Advisor Dvorkovich, First Deputy Prime Minister Shuvalov and
Deputy Prime Minister Sobyanin for ideas. These advisors are
key United Russia Party members and form bridges between
Medvedev and Putin and their respective staffs. The new
party concept is "We can help Russia move forward by putting
Russia's development first." The platform is intended bring
the party back to consensus-based governance and help the
Russian public forget the contentious election results.

5. (C) United Russia strategist Olga Kryshtanovskaya told us
that the dynamics among Kremlin, White House and United
Russia officials have taken on greater significance during
the preparation of the platforms for the two last major
political events of 2009. The overwhelming impression,
supported in comments to us from regional political and party
leaders, is "United Russia is Putin." It appears that
Medvedev is uninterested or unable to put his stamp on the
party. Kryshtanovskaya, who has been careful to moderate her

MOSCOW 00002779 002 OF 002


public pronouncements on intra-party debates, told us
privately that Medvedev's staff (including Surkov) have
discussed the idea of Medvedev associating himself with one
of the other Kremlin-created parties - perhaps Just Russia.
They did not implement the plan, but she conceded that some
of Medvedev supporters continue to raise the possibility.
Center for Social Policy Director Dmitriy Badovskiy told us
the only way Medvedev would align himself with another party
would be if there was a complete breakdown of the tandem.

6. (C) The United Russia party congress is also expected to
encourage debates between local and regional United Russia
officials. For several months party officials, including
Kryshtanovskaya, have focused on coaching officials to be
able to hold their own in contests with serious debaters from
the other parties. Performance in these debates will be
another means for United Russia to find local and regional
officials who are most capable of winning election for United
Russia in future elections. This is all part of the party's
attempt to demonstrate greater receptivity to new ideas and
help it compete with opposition forces.

7. (C) In his 2008 Poslaniye speech, Medvedev proposed ideas
like the creation of a forum for all political parties,
including opposition, to meet and exchange ideas. In the
year since Medvedev proposed these ideas, United Russia has
tightened its grip on power based on its people in government
and party positions. In his 2009 Poslaniye speech November
12, Medvedev will play the role of the strategic thinker,
outlining Russian long-range goals of modernization, tying in
some politics in his annual address. On November 21 Putin
will play the role of tactician, speaking of the recovery
from the economic crisis and the economic way forward. The
new political topics of party congress debates will not
matter to Putin's base, who constitute the majority of
Russians. They see Medvedev and Putin as the co-leaders,
though not co-equals.

Comment
--------------

8. (C) The Tandem is working even though contrasts between
political (and economic) rhetoric and reality exist. Prime
Minister Putin, United Russia's leader, cannot credibly claim
to have "defeated" the economic crisis, although the Russian
economy appears to have bottomed out. Russia's nagging
unemployment and wage arrears are still problems. Putin and
Medvedev will need to resolve these problems by encouraging
economic growth over the next two years in time, hopefully,
for the 2012 presidential elections. In their presentations
to the nation this week and next, Medvedev and Putin will
target their respective bases - urbanites and middle class
(perhaps 20 percent of population) and average Russians (80
percent). Elites will debate Medvedev's Poslaniye, especially
any proposals to improve the conduct of elections. Far more
Russians will pay attention to Putin's United Russia party
congress address on meat-and-potato issues. They will forget
the tainted elections among Putin's boasts of successfully
managing Russia's affairs, demonstrating that United Russia
is little more than a constant reminder of Putin's dominant
leadership and the overwhelming support he continues to enjoy.
Beyrle