UNHCR SECURITY ADVISOR IN NORTH CAUCASUS HOPEFUL

C O N F I D E N T I A L MOSCOW 000181

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR PRM/ECA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/26/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREF MARR UNHCR PINR PTER RS
SUBJECT: UNHCR SECURITY ADVISOR IN NORTH CAUCASUS HOPEFUL
ON INGUSHETIA SECURITY, SANGUINE ON NORTH OSSETIA

Classified By: MINISTER COUNSELOR FOR POLITICAL AFFAIRS ALICE G. WELLS,
REASONS 1.4 (B AND D).


1. (C) Summary: According to UN security officials based in
Vladikavkaz, Ingushetia's new president has made a promising
start as he tries to restore calm to the restive North
Caucasus republic. Recent attacks on civilians in North
Ossetia, meanwhile, do not appear to these observers to
portend intensified violent conflict there. End Summary.


2. (SBU) In the course of a six-day trip to monitor
PRM-funded projects in Chechnya and Ingushetia, Refcoord
spoke at length with Boguslav Romantowski, a Polish citizen
who is Field Security Advisor at the United Nations High
Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) office in Vladikavkaz.
UNHCR moved its regional headquarters to North Ossetia in
2007, following the firing of mortars at its office in
Nazran, then capital of the neighboring republic of
Ingushetiya. Maintaining adequate security has continued to
pose a major challenge to UN staff in the North Caucasus, as
roadside bomb and IED explosions, along with targeted
killings by both security forces and rebels, continue daily.
While a decade has passed since the kidnapping by Chechen
guerrillas of an earlier UNHCR Head of Office, Vincent
Cochetel (currently Deputy Director of International
Protection Services at UNHCR in Geneva),political violence
remains a real risk to residents of, and visitors to, the
Northeastern Caucasus republics -- (from west to east) North
Ossetia, Ingushetiya, Chechnya, and Dagestan.

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Cautious optimism for Ingushetiya
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3. (C) Romantowski described Lt. Col. Yunus-Bek Yevkurov, who
in October 2008 succeeded the highly unpopular Murat Zyazikov
as Ingush president, as a straight-talking military man,
refreshingly different from a typical politician. The
republic's residents admire Yevkurov's bravery for his
willingness, in his first months in office, to walk city
streets in order to visit his constituents in their homes and
businesses. Romantowski's local security assistant, Vladimir
Petrov, asserted that Yevkurov's military background prepared
him well to take control and improve the functioning of
Ingushetiya's police, who under Zyazikov had been notorious
for their incompetence. He added that the number of vendetta
attacks has fallen in Ingushetiya since Yevkurov took office,
an improvement that may be ascribed to the new president
having brought opposition leaders into his administration.
On the other hand, Petrov conceded, the overall security
situation in Ingushetiya has not yet improved. (Note: On
her own travels through the republic, Refcoord observed
morning military patrols along roadsides, with soldiers
searching for explosives that might have been planted
overnight, and officers at checkpoints wearing ski masks so
as to avoid identification by potential rebel assassins. End
Note.)


4. (C) Romantowski stated that Ingushetiya is today
definitely more dangerous than Chechnya, even though the GOR
insists on tighter security for official visitors to the
latter republic. The multi-vehicle convoy of police and
military laid on for travel in Chechnya is primarily to
control foreign officials' movements there rather than to
protect us, he remarked. Petrov added that Chechen President
Ramzan Kadyrov has neutralized the radical Islamist threat in
Chechnya by showing great commitment of his own to Islamic
symbolism and devotion (e.g., by building a giant mosque in
Grozniy and requiring women to wear headscarves in government
buildings),whereas Muslim extremists remain a significant
factor in the security situation in Ingushetia.


5. (C) Contrary to official statements, Romantowski advised,
the blast that killed eight people at a Nazran bailiff's
office January 13 was likely not caused by a gas leak.
Unusually for a terrorist incident in the region, no group
has claimed responsibility for the explosion, however. Local
sources had told UN security staff that the damage caused was
inconsistent with what would be expected from a heating
system mishap. (Note: An NGO official remarked to Refcoord
in passing that the regional bailiff's service was
notoriously abusive toward litigants, such that many
individuals might have possessed a motive for the deadly
attack. End Note.)

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Calm in North Ossetia
--------------


5. (C) Though all UNHCR North Caucasus officials and numerous
expatriate NGO staff live in Vladikavkaz, Romantowski
appeared unfazed by the recent murders of the city's current
and previous mayors and the suicide bombing of a taxi mini
van that killed 12 people November 6. The assassinations
appear to have been linked to the executives' involvement in
a financial dispute over illegal municipal land sales, while
the motive for the attack on urban commuters is still unclear
three months after it occurred. Remarkably, the city
remained calm during last summer's influx of escapees from
the conflict in South Ossetia. Though North Ossetia faced
absorbing the majority of the over 30,000 South Ossetians who
fled to Russia, Vladikavkaz functioned as normal. Not that
the war was invisible: Cossacks passing through on their way
to join the battle drank heavily in city bars. Fighters
returning from the front sometimes brought loot, including
trophy Georgian automobiles that they repainted. Five months
later, the atmosphere in Vladikavkaz remains calm,
Romantowski averred, despite the recent attacks that made
world news. Most North Ossetians do not feel themselves to
be the intended targets, he reasoned.

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Comment
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6. (C) Yevkurov has moved deliberately to build confidence
among both the Ingush people and outside observers that if
things in their republic do not get markedly better, at least
they will not, on his watch, deteriorate. Not everyone is
yet at ease, however. Meeting with high school student
beneficiaries of PRM programs in Troitskaya, an Ingush town
that hosts a substantial Chechen IDP population, Refcoord
asked if these adolescents believed they faced any challenges
unique to their part of the world. "Yes," one boy replied,
having first politely raised his hand. "We can't go out at
night without risking being killed."
BEYRLE