URUGUAYAN ELECTIONS: THIRD CANDIDATE EMERGES FOR RULING COALITION NOMINATION

C O N F I D E N T I A L MONTEVIDEO 000090

SIPDIS

FOR WHA/BSC MARY DASCHBACH

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/09/2019
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PINR UY
SUBJECT: URUGUAYAN ELECTIONS: THIRD CANDIDATE EMERGES FOR RULING COALITION NOMINATION

REF: MVD 0060 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: CDA ROBIN MATTHEWMAN, FOR REASON 1.4 (B)

Summary
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1. (U) A third candidate has emerged for the presidential nomination of Uruguay's ruling Frente Amplio (FA) coalition. Marcos Carambula is Mayor of Canelones, Uruguay's second-largest province, and he is hoping to draw support from the middle ground between longtime front-running senators Jose Mujica and Danilo Astori. The nomination will be decided in a nationwide primary on June 28. As expected, the Socialist Party played a key role in determining that Carambula would be the third contender the FA, faced for the first time with a real primary competition, is now focused on managing the competition in a way that preserves the coalition's chance for victory in the general elections in October. End Summary.

Now There Are Three
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2. (U) There has been a winnowing in the race for the nomination to represent the ruling Frente Amplio coalition in Uruguay's October 2009 presidential elections. Senators Jose Mujica and Danilo Astori have been the longtime front-runners, but polling showed enough problems with both their candidacies to attract others into the ring (reftel). What was expected to be an intense battle between two would-be third candidates ended in anticlimax when Minister of Industry and Energy Daniel Martinez dropped out of the race February 6. That decision left Mayor Marcos Carambula, who represents Uruguay's second-largest province, as the FA's third declared candidate.


3. (U) The contest between Carambula and Martinez was expected to hinge on the amount of support Martinez would receive at the February 7 party congress of his Socialist Party, an important FA coalition member. The thinking was that if -- and only if -- Martinez received strong Socialist backing would his candidacy be viable. Instead, he apparently determined before the congress that he couldn't muster the votes he needed and abandoned his candidacy via a letter to the press, in which he stated he did not want to become a divisive element within the FA.

The Socialist Vote: Who Really Lost?
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4. (SBU) Absent Martinez, most Socialist delegates pledged to support Astori. The final tally at the party congress was 51 votes for Astori, 14 for Carambula, and only one for Mujica. While those numbers point to an overwhelming preference for Astori, voting was confined to members of the Socialist Party's Central Committee, and most analysts believe the rank-and-file will distribute their votes more evenly. Still, Astori undoubtedly received a boost, which was made more evident by public grumbling about the results on Mujica's part.


5. (C) Even more grumpy, though, was Senator and former Foreign Minister Reinaldo Gargano. Gargano, who has long demonstrated unfriendliness toward the U.S., led the Socialist wing supporting Martinez's nomination. He appeared to have been surprised by press reports that Martinez had bowed out, and reportedly then boycotted the Socialist vote out of pique. He was therefore absent when delegates decided to ease Martinez's pain by guaranteeing him the top spot on the party's voting lists, ensuring Martinez a seat in Uruguay's senate during the next term. As the socialists have a policy of gender equity, the second place on their voting lists is traditionally held for a woman. That means Gargano can hope for the third slot at best, casting doubt on his future in the senate, where he has been since 1986 (with a break as President Vazquez's first foreign minister).

A Forced Unity
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6. (U) The three FA hopefuls face the challenge of competing in the June primary without damaging the FA's general election chances by mudslinging. FA President Jorge Brovetto's idea was to project coalition unity by arranging for 20 joint campaign appearances in different parts of the country by the three candidates. The Mujica and Astori camps reportedly thought that was too much togetherness, but all candidates did agree to make eight such joint appearances before June the first was held in the beach resort of La Paloma February 6.

Comment
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7. (U) The Frente Amplio for the first time faces the primary season without a clear frontrunner. We expect a spirited race, with each of the three candidates seeking to portray himself as most capable of winning the general elections in the fall.
Matthewman