Uruguay: Mujica Strong Favorite in November 29 Presidential

UNCLAS MONTEVIDEO 000666

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
FOR WHA/BSC MARY DASCHBACH
INR FOR ANDREW STEIN

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV UY
SUBJECT: Uruguay: Mujica Strong Favorite in November 29 Presidential
Election

REF: MONTEVIDEO 0609; MONTEVIDEO 0615

Summary

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1. (U) With the November 29 runoff election less than a week away,
ruling Frente Amplio (FA) coalition candidate Jose Mujica appears
in position to be elected the next President of Uruguay, with 48
percent of likely voters intending to support him, according to
recent polls. Challenger Luis Alberto Lacalle of the National
Party has stepped up an advertising campaign touting his
initiatives and leadership, but it is unlikely to slow Mujica's
march towards the presidency. End Summary.



Polls Point to Mujica as Next President

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2. (U) With the runoff round of Uruguay's presidential elections
coming November 29, the election of Frente Amplio candidate and
former Tupamaro guerrilla Jose Mujica as the next President of
Uruguay appears a foregone conclusion. Mujica was widely seen to
have a clear advantage after the October 25 general elections, in
which the FA claimed 48 percent of the vote and a majority in
Parliament (Ref A).




3. (U) According to a survey released November 19 by polling
company Interconsult, 48 percent of the Uruguayan electorate
intends to vote for Mujica and running mate Danilo Astori, while 42
percent will vote for former President Luis Alberto Lacalle and his
running mate Jorge Larranaga. Ten percent of the Uruguayan
electorate remains undecided, giving Mujica a considerable
advantage as, based on the polls, he need only win one-fifth of
undecided votes in order to defeat Lacalle and claim the
presidency.





4. (U) Mujica has been making preparations as the likely future
president, including working to strengthen his credentials with the
business community by emphasizing continuity with the Vazquez
administration, especially regarding economic policy. This
strategy was evident during a recent speech to a prominent business
group, in which Mujica ceded the floor to running mate (and former
Finance Minister) Astori, who detailed the economic policies that
would remain in place during a Mujica administration.



Lacalle Emphasizes "Equilibrium" in Last-Ditch Effort

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5. (SBU) At first, in his attempt to close the gap, Lacalle has
emphasized the "equilibrium" that his election to the presidency
would bring, as it would prevent the FA from controlling both the
legislative and executive branches of government over the next five
years (the FA won a parliamentary majority in general elections
October 25). The Lacalle campaign's complementary strategy has
been to buy television time to question Mujica's capacity for
office. Some of those advertising spots have also been causing
Lacalle trouble, however. One particularly emotive clip produced
by the Argentinean publicist Ramiro Agulla shows an almost tearful
Lacalle delivering a rousing speech to an equally stirred crowd of
beautifully photographed Uruguayans listening to Lacalle's address
on the radio. However, it appears that Agulla had used almost
exactly the same clip for Argentine Senator Francisco de Narvaez
several months earlier. The two spots are so similar that one
actress appears in both, apparently just as overcome by the
rhetoric of Lacalle as she was by that of Narvaez. The ad has
caused widespread embarrassment, and there are critical You Tube


sites dedicated to comparing the Lacalle and de Narvaez spots.




6. (SBU) A second approach foundered when the National Party ran an
ad exclusively in the interior of the country that linked the
Feldman arms cache case (Ref B) directly to Mujica. The clip,
which appears designed to resemble a straight news report, makes no
mention of the National Party and gives no indication that it is a
political ad. Lacalle has consequently been accused by some of
seeking to deceive voters in the interior. While some media sources
have pointed to the involvement of Lacalle campaign chief Gustavo
Penades in the ad, Lacalle himself has denied all knowledge of how
it came to exist.




7. (SBU) Finally, in the last week or so, the Lacalle campaign has
put greater emphasis on the issues, most notably in the field of
fiscal policy. Lacalle is calling for the reduction of various
taxes, including the personal income tax (passed during the current
administration under the guidance of then Finance Minister Astori),
which he seeks to eliminate progressively during his time in
office, and the value-added (sales) tax, which he plans to reduce
from 22 to 20 percent if elected.



Bordaberry: Standing by Lacalle in Spirit

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8. (U) While Pedro Bordaberry (whose 17 percent share of the vote
in October pulled the Colorado Party back from irrelevance) is not
a candidate in the runoff, those who voted for him in the first
round will play a pivotal role in this election, as Lacalle needs
to win all of them, plus some Mujica voters, to pull an upset.
Bordaberry pledged his vote to Lacalle as the first round's results
came in, but his subsequent support has been somewhat more
circumspect. Instead of choosing to campaign directly alongside
Lacalle and Larranaga, for example, Bordaberry embarked on a
separate national tour to thank local activists and explain why the
National Party ticket was the best choice for their vote.



Comment

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9. (U) Analysts have been struck by the remarkably stable level of
support for the two candidates in recent weeks, as well as the high
level of undecided voters. There is clearly a large group of
people who do not like their choices.
MATTHEWMAN